Thundersnow12 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 First time since we've had this product on our site that it's been maxed out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 The perils of being a chasecationer. May have to log off for 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 12z GFS/NAM both continue to max out sup composite Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 12z GFS/NAM both continue to max out sup composite Tuesday evening. The degree of low level backing around the KS/NE border is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Tuesday has a ridiculous ceiling along the boundary near the KS/NE border, especially by 2014 standards. The only thing I'm not liking right now is that almost every model has widespread precip ongoing through the day N of said boundary. One date this setup reminds me of in some ways (though there are certainly large differences, too) is 17 June 2009, which I recall also having morning storms in the same area. If there's a decent window for insolation along the boundary, a prolific storm or two seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Tuesday has a ridiculous ceiling along the boundary near the KS/NE border, especially by 2014 standards. I like how storm motions are going to favour storms moving along/parallel to the boundary rather than across it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 12z GFS/ECMWF now in good agreement with Tue-Thur being the window with highest potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 12z GFS/ECMWF now in good agreement with Tue-Thur being the window with highest potential. Tomorrow is likely going to have some great structure opportunities and perhaps a few tubes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Had to save some of the 18z NAM soundings for posterity's sake near the WF on Tuesday (no matter how unreliable the model is). Local AFDs for Tuesday... OAX: A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY ANDMONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ONTUESDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BUT FASTER...WITH THE BIG CHANGEBEING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOSTDETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON A DEEP SURFACE LOW FORMING INEASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM NORTHERN KANSASINTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FAST ZONALFLOW WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST ANDQUITE UNSTABLE. WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITHGOOD POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED MESOCYCLONES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVELSHEAR. SEE SPC DAY4-8 DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. GID: GETTING FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES TO WORKOUT IN THE FORECAST. 24 HRS AGO IT APPEARED THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FORTHUNDERSTORMS MIGHT COME WED/THUR...BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE MOVED THEMORE INTERESTING PERIOD UP TO TUES/TUES NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THELONG TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY SHOWS THE REGION UNDER GENERALLYZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THANKS TO ELONGATED HIGH PRESSUREOVER THE FAR SRN CONUS...AND THESE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVINGTHROUGH. THE CONCERN ON TUESDAY LIES WITH THE NEXT OF THESEDISTURBANCES MOVING TROUGH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MAIN SFCWARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA...PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISMFOR DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS POINT THEHIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL SEE HOWMODELS TREND WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND SFC BOUNDARYOVER THE UPCOMING RUNS...ITS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS OUT BUT IF THINGSREMAIN SIMILAR POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. TOP: Tuesday...Incoming high pressure helps reinforce the surfaceboundary across the CWA by early Tuesday. Front then gets a boostback to the north as low pressure develops across the high plainsthrough the day. How far north this boundary can retreat will havean impact on where storms develop on Tuesday afternoon. NAM andGFS hold on to some degree of a cap across the southern portionsof the area but becomes very weak near the I70 corridor in themiddle afternoon. Atmosphere is strongly unstable with SBCAPE3500J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shear running 50-60kts for surface basedparcels. It will be a race between the warmer temperatures aloftas to where storms initiate, with models suggesting northern twotiers are greatest risk with all modes of severe weather possiblein the afternoon and evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Had to save some of the 18z NAM soundings for posterity's sake near the WF on Tuesday (no matter how unreliable the model is). Local AFDs for Tuesday... OAX: GID: TOP: Yeah some of the forecast hodos are wallpaper material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Yeah some of the forecast hodos are wallpaper material. A few I pulled had SRH >700 m2/s2 with near 5000 J/kg of uncapped SBCAPE (over 3500 J/kg MLCAPE), silly stuff. Oh, and >70 kts of 0-6 km shear on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 A few I pulled had SRH >700 m2/s2 with near 5000 J/kg of uncapped SBCAPE (over 3500 J/kg MLCAPE), silly stuff. Yeah I randomly clicked a spot along the warm front and it had an ehi of 15.5. I mean that is nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Between I-70 and the NE border in north central KS at 21z on the 18z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 im gonna have to see if i can get Tuesday off, if model trends continue, especially since I wouldnt have to venture too far from my apartment. Note to any chasers who will be in or around Lincoln then, there is tons of construction in town, On 70th street, Cornhusker hwy from 48th to the i-80 exit (399), then several areas down to 1 lane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 GFS came south at 18z, might be a bit of a problem since warm mid level temperatures are gonna be an issue with southward extent. Interesting to note that the GFS has suffered from grid scale feedback for the past several runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 1500 m^2/s^2 of 0-3 km helicity on the 18Z GFS? Heh heh. At least that area is thermonuclearly capped by then. Looking to where storms actually have the possibility of forming, modeled ML CAPE >2500 J/kg and 0-3 km helicities >400 m^2/s^2 allude to an explosive environment for storms Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 The NB/KS area looks pretty interesting. Just to cherry pick the raw GFS parameters for KLSN at 03Z on 6/4...STP of 15, 0-1km EHI of 10, VGP of 0.82. 60+ kts of bulk shear of which most of that is in the 0-1 km layer. There's definitely a big cap in place, but the GFS still pops convection off in that KLSN area anyway. The amount of shear in the lowest 1 km after the nocturnal low level wind maximum ramps up is quite astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 The low level shear/helicity forecasted Tuesday afternoon/evening is absolutely amazing, any mesocyclones that go off in those types of wind fields will go nuts in a hurry. Still a bit concerned about the warm nose around 700 mb, but it's the type of environment where just one storm could steal the show. I've actually had to double and triple check soundings making sure what I have been reading is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Between I-70 and the NE border in north central KS at 21z on the 18z NAM.. Mediocre mid-level lapse rates. In all seriousness, wow. That is a ridiculous CAPE/shear combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Not much mention of tornadoes in the D3, mostly focusing on the MCS threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Not much mention of tornadoes in the D3, mostly focusing on the MCS threat. I noticed that as well. Considering this is easily the best plains setup of 2014 thus far (even with concerns) I'm surprised at the lack of more than one mention of tornadoes in the entire outlook. We'll see how things evolve today as we get into range of the higher resolution model guidance (namely the 4-KM NAM). I can already say there are a ton of chasers planning to be out on Tuesday. After all, this is 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 It looks like the dry line could be too capped so that explains why the SPC is more interested in the MCS risk along the theta-e boundary to the north. The MCS indicators are pretty high, but so are the supercell/tornado indicators. Since the wind shear vectors are going to be more parallel to the boundary up there I would think the MCS risk trumps the discrete supercell risk in this case. But, even the hypothetical derecho would probably have a substantial leading edge tornado risk with the setup I'm seeing. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Regardless of the D3 outlook, most of the area AFDs are hitting the tornado threat harder than SPC. Upper level flow is actually quite good near the WF unlike 5/11 so this could lead to longer maintenance of favorable storm modes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Specific thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43789-june-3rd-6th-severe-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 18z GFS is looking pretty robust on Sat 6/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Mid/long range modeling has been pretty consistent with the potential for a larger/stronger synoptic system dropping into the NW/Intermountain region sometime in the 6/10-6/15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Looking at the medium range, if the ECMWF solution is right with a piece of mid level energy hanging around for the beginning of next week, things could be quite wet across the southern half of the plains, especially with moisture streaming in from the slop in the the southern Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 The 12Z ECMWF shows an incredibly deep, progressive (for mid-June) longwave trough pattern setting up out West in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 The 12Z ECMWF shows an incredibly deep, progressive (for mid-June) longwave trough pattern setting up out West in the long range. That would almost certainly result in a very active severe weather pattern assuming the trough doesn't get stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 That would almost certainly result in a very active severe weather pattern assuming the trough doesn't get stuck. And there remains the big question. 500 mb heights remain well in excess of 588 dam out ahead of the trough on the model run, so that monster trough very well could get stuck so to speak out in the west. Ten days out is forever in the meteorological world, but against my better judgement, this model run has me salivating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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