Jayhawkers Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 5/22 (Bowdle), 6/16-17 (Dupree, SD tornado machine on 6/16 then the ND/MN tornado outbreak on 6/17), 5/31 (Campo), etc. etc. stills plains I suppose... Mostly localized EXCEPT 6/17 which was quite the day... Alrighty, I guess I would consider 2010 a big year, basing off of my previous definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 This year is everything we feared 2013 would be up until the May extravaganza, and then some. Worst chase year since 1988, unless June pulls a rabbit out in defiance of current modeling. And I'd rather have lived through 1988 than this, since at least it wasn't a brutally cold winter and early spring. To jump straight from that crap to a death ridge, if that indeed transpires, makes 2014 about as freakishly miserable as it gets. It looks like 2014 will land in good company among recent years with rapid El Nino development during the spring/summer: 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2009. And it might be the worst of the bunch for the Plains. At least 1997 and 2002 had respectable events. Aside from HP mess, this year has had nothing (the difference can probably be blamed on the drought). I think in the future we'll be comparing the tornado downturn between 2012-201? comparable, statistically speaking, to that between 1986-1989. Obviously the former has had more high-profile events but the big dip is quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Anyways, the Mid/Long-range forecast looks pretty awful on the GFS as many of you already know... A giant "death ridge" building all the way into the N-Plains, and literally obliterates a pretty strong 500mb trough shortly after the current closed-low deamplifies across the East-central CONUS. The Ridge also causes a complete overhaul of the overall pattern, and either A. deamplifies any troughs that eject into the NW U.S. or B. Forces all jet energy into Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I'm personally pretty excited about the potential in MT and ND on Wed through Friday. Capping and LCLs are my main concern. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I'm personally pretty excited about the potential in MT and ND on Wed through Friday. Capping and LCLs are my main concern. Sent from my iPad not too knowledgable about what kind of moisture or instability or shear it takes to get good storms out there, but regardless IMO the cap appears to be pretty stout almost everyone of those days, instability looks okay (SBCAPE 1000-2000j/KG) but the best shear looks a bit displaced from the best thermodynamics with the best day having ~40kts sfc-500mb srh. LLJ ramps up to ~30kts a few of the days... GFS solution looks meh to me. Capping and pretty high LCL heights combined with okay instability and shear just doesn't seem to bode well. On the other hand, it at least has some potential for SVR especially with that sfc low backing the winds, the 00Z GFS for 5/30 at 00Z (Thursday at 7) skew-t shows backed winds all the way up to 850mb and hodographs look very impressive as well along the ND/ Canada border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Well the 00z Euro does appear to be trying to eject the trough in some form (not as stout of a ridge) and also has a developing trough in the Gulf of Alaska in behind. Even if the GFS was showing the mother of all outbreaks next week, I wouldn't read too much into it. It has been nothing short of horrid with synoptic evolution in the mid/long range through the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Well the 00z Euro does appear to be trying to eject the trough in some form (not as stout of a ridge) and also has a developing trough in the Gulf of Alaska in behind. Even if the GFS was showing the mother of all outbreaks next week, I wouldn't read too much into it. It has been nothing short of horrid with synoptic evolution in the mid/long range through the Spring. did notice that trough in the gulf of Alaska on the ECMWF, also looked quite strong... But it all depends on where the ridge is at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Can I lock in the 12z GFS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 GFS looks pretty hot for Sunday. I'll enjoy watching from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Meanwhile the Euro continues to show it being sheared out by the confluence in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Could be some monster sups up over north-central/northeast MT Wednesday. Very nice forecast hodos in that area. Nice little feed of higher theta-e into that area. EDIT: Beyond that another potential setup over North Dakota Thursday. The Euro and GFS both indicate some potential in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame further south over the central Plains. Euro looks less progressive with the H5 energy, and would yield a decent setup for Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 You're not kidding, impressive veering wind profiles with height especially in the lowest 3 km and pretty solid low level moisture advecting into that region (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 You two hit it on the head. Eastern MT look awesome on the new NAM/GFS for Weds. Cap could be a problem but the GFS breaks on discrete convection in a highly sheared environment. Have also been closely watching next Sun-Tue for a several day event as the GFS keeps hinting at with the highest moisture values we've seen so far this year possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Monday 6/2 on the 00z GFS is an absolute beauty of a setup for early June, broad/negative tilt upper trough with strong central/northern Plains cyclogenesis and moisture finally looks to reach impressive levels. Sufficient mid/upper level flow from the looks of it as well to spread strong deep layer shear over a substantial area. I mean a lot about that setup just screams sit near the triple point in SD and watch things ignite. Need the Euro to come around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 The analog data from the past couple of months remains the main choice here for watching severe weather trends. The NWP shift toward more interesting wx through next week is not a surprise if you refer to that information. The tropical forcing-end to things is, as always, messing with some of the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 The Euro is pretty impressive for early next week as well, especially on Monday. That Plains setup looks potent with a surface low ejecting out of Colorado, strong instability in place out in front (temps over 100F with SBCAPE up to 4000 J/kg over Nebraska) and a decent LLJ. Details to change, but things are looking up at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 The Euro is pretty impressive for early next week as well, especially on Monday. That Plains setup looks potent with a surface low ejecting out of Colorado, strong instability in place out in front (temps over 100F with SBCAPE up to 4000 J/kg over Nebraska) and a decent LLJ. Details to change, but things are looking up at the least. Temps over 100 = unbreakable cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Temps over 100 = unbreakable cap.Yep. The point is the very sharp thermal gradient from western Kansas to central Nebraska. The best kinematic support is further east from the warm sector, near the warm front. A potentially very dynamic system for June standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Early next week, starting over the weekend, is the best set-up I've seen so far this year. Chase trip is likely, pending 36 more hours of consistent NWP and reasonable air fares at that time. Northern Plains could have a sequence from the Dakotas over to Minnesota and Iowa. Surface features are clear with a triple point and all; however, qpf is a little high for ideal storm chasing. It could start as early as Saturday over the Bakken shale oil field. Sunday and Monday offer opportunities as well, gradually shifting east to Minnesota and Iowa. Tuesday depends on timing, but sequence may continue. Central Plains will be capped; however, one cannot take it off the table. A properly timed shortwave could initiate storms, but it must be nearly perfect timing with that cap. If something initiates, wind fields may be gorgeous for this late in the season. Lee trough will offer a quasi southern sfc low. Overnight convection each morning could provide an outflow boundary to intersect the lee trough. Anything would be isolated and hopefully Classic Sup. Finally a day or two some NWP has upslope activity in the High Plains. It could be a Plan C if the above two are too far one way or the other, heavy rain or el cappo. Base city selection for flight is difficult at the moment. However, confidence is high in a Plains sequence early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Could be a week straight of solid severe weather depending on the details. Starting tomorrow and going till next Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 The analog data from the past couple of months remains the main choice here for watching severe weather trends. The NWP shift toward more interesting wx through next week is not a surprise if you refer to that information. The tropical forcing-end to things is, as always, messing with some of the modeling. 12z Euro looks to have come around with a much stronger/more well organized system than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Could be a week straight of solid severe weather depending on the details. Starting tomorrow and going till next Weds. Tomorrow and Thursday in MT/ND/SK/MB and then Monday in the Plains are really the only interesting looking days at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Tomorrow and Thursday in MT/ND/SK/MB and then Monday in the Plains are really the only interesting looking days at this point. Disagree somewheat... Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look somewhat interesting in the northern high plains. You have some subtle areas in the WY/ND/MT/SD areas where the GFS is showing MUCAPE 1000+ overlapping 40-50 knot bulk shear... it won't be any widespread kind of severe, but there is definitely potential there with some upslope stuff. A sleeper target for thursday could also be southeast MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Disagree somewheat... Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look somewhat interesting in the northern high plains. You have some subtle areas in the WY/ND/MT/SD areas where the GFS is showing MUCAPE 1000+ overlapping 40-50 knot bulk shear... it won't be any widespread kind of severe, but there is definitely potential there with some upslope stuff. A sleeper target for thursday could also be southeast MT. I'm not discounting a threat any of the other days, it's just the three aforementioned days have a higher potential overall and look much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 I'm not discounting a threat any of the other days, it's just the three aforementioned days have a higher potential overall and look much more interesting. Agreed... Just trying to find some needles in a haystack. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Agreed... Just trying to find some needles in a haystack. Sent from my iPad Verbatim, the 18z GFS has solid potential across a good portion of SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 To back up HM's comment before about model problems, the 00z GFS has gone to crap with the 500 mb depiction on Monday/Tuesday. There really isn't a defined upper low ejection at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 To back up HM's comment before about model problems, the 00z GFS has gone to crap with the 500 mb depiction on Monday/Tuesday. There really isn't a defined upper low ejection at all. Yeah, although it does now have several consecutive days of modest to moderate SW flow atop respectable moisture/instability, with CI somewhere in the S/C Plains most of those days. I'll take it, honestly; sort of June 2009-esque, albeit shorter-lived and less impressive. If there's any time of year that we can still crank out interesting events without well-defined upper support, this is prime time (granted, the past week has not proved that point very well, at least outside the Dakotas). This same pattern in April or even the first half of May would probably be fairly useless, but at least there's a shot now. We'll have to see how much impact the recent deluge over the Panhandles and surrounding region has on low-level moisture, though, regardless. EDIT: 00z ECMWF completely squashes the Rio Grande Valley ridge from previous runs and allows for another round of setups late next week... very impressive if it's the beginning of a real trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 00Z ECMWF also caught my eye. I wouldn't be upset in the least if something similar to that were to actually verify, particularly near the end of the run. It still is forever and a day away, but the trend has me feeling optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 The 12z GFS flops back and looks improved for Sunday/Monday. In fact the analogy guidance lights up big time on Monday. Glanced at the Euro and it continues to show potential as well. Welcome to June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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