Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

[Ian]

One interesting thing on many models is they spit out a good deal or a chance of a good deal of rain over parched parts of western TX and surrounds. Some of those days don't really look great for supercells/tornadoes but I guess it might be good for the bigger picture if it happens.   Definitely going to be chasing mesoscale accident potential etc on a number of occasions it would seem. 

[Srain]

One interesting thing on many models is they spit out a good deal or a chance of a good deal of rain over parched parts of western TX and surrounds. Some of those days don't really look great for supercells/tornadoes but I guess it might be good for the bigger picture if it happens.   Definitely going to be chasing mesoscale accident potential etc on a number of occasions it would seem. 

 A +PDO regime and the uptick in tropical activity across the EPAC may not be a bad thing as we head toward the latter half of May.

[Ian]

 A +PDO regime and the uptick in tropical activity across the EPAC may not be a bad thing as we head toward the latter half of May.

I see chasers on Twitter debating whether they should go out now or wait.. perhaps waiting isn't a bad option if available, but the pattern looks potentially quite active for the next 7+  (once it starts) one way or another.  Some question to moisture of course and the evolution.  That said, feeling better than most others who are heading out which makes me wonder if they just read SPC and can't look at a map or something.  Euro op is trying to bring another trough into the west at d10. Of course it also squashes moisture way south by the end of the run but TX still looks OK.  Forecast challenges abound.. fun.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro EPS control run from WxBell PPV rainfall totals suggest Oklahoma could be an exciting place the last 5 days of May.

[nrgjeff]

I think you are in good shape.

I see chasers on Twitter debating whether they should go out now or wait.. perhaps waiting isn't a bad option if available, but the pattern looks potentially quite active for the next 7+  (once it starts) one way or another.  Some question to moisture of course and the evolution.  That said, feeling better than most others who are heading out which makes me wonder if they just read SPC and can't look at a map or something.  Euro op is trying to bring another trough into the west at d10. Of course it also squashes moisture way south by the end of the run but TX still looks OK.  Forecast challenges abound.. fun.

 

Late next week moisture finally gets back into Kansas. Probably a couple days like Sunday - boundary riders not classic dry line. 11-15 day charts hint at northern Plains. Unlike 5-6 day, moisture should reach the Dakotas by the end of May toward June 1.

[Ian]

I think you are in good shape.

 

Late next week moisture finally gets back into Kansas. Probably a couple days like Sunday - boundary riders not classic dry line. 11-15 day charts hint at northern Plains. Unlike 5-6 day, moisture should reach the Dakotas by the end of May toward June 1.

Yeah, maybe.. today's runs don't bring any great confidence other than the short range models seem to like Sunday even more than the globals so perhaps we can get something interesting quick.  Op runs are trending toward another big high killing moisture for everyone but TX by day 10 but LR has been rather pathetic lately... not like it would be too surprising.  

[Thunder Road]

The 12z GFS pooped all over my KS enthusiasm.  Can't have models trending drier like this already.

[Quincy]

Long range prospects from the (12z) Euro ENS are kind of mixed. We've been touching on early next week and I think the general consensus is for potential, but probably not major. Perhaps next Sunday or somewhere around that? EPS hints at it. Beyond that, it does finally lose the excessive eastern trough towards the end of the run with everyone sitting AOA for 500mb height anomalies on day 14. I'll believe it when I see it!

[brettjrob]

It's becoming somewhat clear that the next 7-10 days will be: acceptable for chasecationers who love structure and photography; marginal but passable for chasers who want tornadoes and are willing to find them at all costs; and really disappointing for year-round chasers who are still waiting for the first good synoptic-scale setup of the year.

Between now and May 25, I think something akin to the 25 May 2012 setup in central KS is about the highest caliber day we'll see, if we're lucky.

[Ian]

Sounds about right for now. I'd take a may 25 2012 for sure tho.

[Thunder Road]

It's becoming somewhat clear that the next 7-10 days will be: acceptable for chasecationers who love structure and photography; marginal but passable for chasers who want tornadoes and are willing to find them at all costs; and really disappointing for year-round chasers who are still waiting for the first good synoptic-scale setup of the year.

Between now and May 25, I think something akin to the 25 May 2012 setup in central KS is about the highest caliber day we'll see, if we're lucky.

 

Seems like a good summary.  This will be my sixth year chasing (albeit only for a week or 10 days at a time) and I've still never been out there for any sort of synoptic-scale set-up.  In fact, one cap bust in Hebron, NE aside, I've never chased east of the longitude of LBF.

 

I'd take a may 25 2012 for sure tho.

 

Ditto.  Valpo chasers saw (I think) five tornadoes that day between La Crosse and Hays.  I was offered a spot on that chase but opted for June instead...

 

 

This is quickly turning into a pity party for me.  Didn't intend that...

[brettjrob]

Seems like a good summary.  This will be my sixth year chasing (albeit only for a week or 10 days at a time) and I've still never been out there for any sort of synoptic-scale set-up.  In fact, one cap bust in Hebron, NE aside, I've never chased east of the longitude of LBF.

 

 

Ditto.  Valpo chasers saw (I think) five tornadoes that day between La Crosse and Hays.  I was offered a spot on that chase but opted for June instead...

 

 

This is quickly turning into a pity party for me.  Didn't intend that...

 

No shame; this thread has kinda been one big pity party.

 

And as far as I'm concerned, anyone who started chasing seriously in or after 2011 is entitled to pity, as 2010 was the last year that can reasonably be considered great for the Plains. I only wish I'd appreciated the 2007-2010 seasons more than I did at the time (and also chased them better ).

[Ian]

Seems like a good summary.  This will be my sixth year chasing (albeit only for a week or 10 days at a time) and I've still never been out there for any sort of synoptic-scale set-up.  In fact, one cap bust in Hebron, NE aside, I've never chased east of the longitude of LBF.

 

 

Ditto.  Valpo chasers saw (I think) five tornadoes that day between La Crosse and Hays.  I was offered a spot on that chase but opted for June instead...

 

 

This is quickly turning into a pity party for me.  Didn't intend that...

 

That was our first "good" chase after the 2011 disaster of two weeks we found. Was most excellent.. we never hit the first tor storm but hit the tail end one very early and had a great show before it put down tornadoes.

 

Spring has been wonkified lately. Not to bring climate change into it but these blocked patterns didn't seem to be the all the time norm until a few years ago.   If you can't score in the final two weeks of May something just sucks.

[andyhb]

That was our first "good" chase after the 2011 disaster of two weeks we found. Was most excellent.. we never hit the first tor storm but hit the tail end one very early and had a great show before it put down tornadoes.

 

Spring has been wonkified lately. Not to bring climate change into it but these blocked patterns didn't seem to be the all the time norm until a few years ago.   If you can't score in the final two weeks of May something just sucks.

 

It doesn't help when you have two straight years of nada from the ENSO regions.

 

There's been quiet periods like this before, such as the early 60s and the late 80s (and obviously the Dust Bowl years). What's actually interesting is that it seems there have been more major events in this "quiet" period than those ones, like 3/2/12, 4/14/12, the May 2013 sequence, 11/17/13 and 4/27-28 this year.

[mfgmfg]

What's up with the cold nights? Frost warnings the last two nights and now a freeze warning for tonight. Stuff out in the garden has had to be covered up.

[Ground Scouring]

That was our first "good" chase after the 2011 disaster of two weeks we found. Was most excellent.. we never hit the first tor storm but hit the tail end one very early and had a great show before it put down tornadoes.

 

Spring has been wonkified lately. Not to bring climate change into it but these blocked patterns didn't seem to be the all the time norm until a few years ago.   If you can't score in the final two weeks of May something just sucks.

 

 

It doesn't help when you have two straight years of nada from the ENSO regions.

 

There's been quiet periods like this before, such as the early 60s and the late 80s (and obviously the Dust Bowl years). What's actually interesting is that it seems there have been more major events in this "quiet" period than those ones, like 3/2/12, 4/14/12, the May 2013 sequence, 11/17/13 and 4/27-28 this year.

Both of the bolded facts are actually quite consistent with the trends some studies on climate change have suggested: reduced instability in the tropics (hence reduced TC activity globally, but for some reason most pronounced in the Atlantic), enhanced periods of mid- to high-latitude blocking, enhanced winter precipitation, fewer but more intense severe wx events (especially in the fall/off season), etc. I think at some point you have to admit that climate change is at least partly to blame because the effects are just what the studies predicted. I'm not sure how everything ties in together but I'm quite convinced there is some link, though not a straightforward one given the complexity of the atmosphere.

 

Whatever's causing these trends, it (combined with the natural Plains drought cycle) sucks for people who want big Plains outbreaks harmlessly affecting open country. Almost every major tornado event recently has been in the Southeast, hence the higher death tolls, lower LCLs / reduced visibility and worse terrain for chasing, etc.

[RCNYILWX]

Both of the bolded facts are actually quite consistent with the trends some studies on climate change have suggested: reduced instability in the tropics (hence reduced TC activity globally, but for some reason most pronounced in the Atlantic), enhanced periods of mid- to high-latitude blocking, enhanced winter precipitation, fewer but more intense severe wx events (especially in the fall/off season), etc. I think at some point you have to admit that climate change is at least partly to blame because the effects are just what the studies predicted. I'm not sure how everything ties in together but I'm quite convinced there is some link, though not a straightforward one given the complexity of the atmosphere.

Whatever's causing these trends, it (combined with the natural Plains drought cycle) sucks for people who want big Plains outbreaks harmlessly affecting open country. Almost every major tornado event recently has been in the Southeast, hence the higher death tolls, lower LCLs / reduced visibility and worse terrain for chasing, etc.

I don't want to start a debate but after the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and 2011 tornado season there were claims that those seasons were consistent with climate change studies. I don't think you can have it both ways, that climate change causes active severe and tropical seasons AND quiet seasons. That makes human induced climate change unfalsifiable. To me it's just weather. I think the more likely contributor to the overall lack of tornadoes, especially in the Plains, is the multi-year Plains drought. And the Dust Bowl shows that multi-year Plains droughts are not unprecedented.

[JoMo]

I don't want to start a debate but after the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and 2011 tornado season there were claims that those seasons were consistent with climate change studies. I don't think you can have it both ways, that climate change causes active severe and tropical seasons AND quiet seasons. That makes human induced climate change unfalsifiable. To me it's just weather. I think the more likely contributor to the overall lack of tornadoes, especially in the Plains, is the multi-year Plains drought. And the Dust Bowl shows that multi-year Plains droughts are not unprecedented.

 

Exactly. And the El Nino should help with the drought issues going forward. 

[Ground Scouring]

I think that the upcoming few weeks have more potential than most people are acknowledging. I think an ejecting trough after day 5 is possible because that has been the seasonal trend. The ECMWF hints at ejection by hr. 120 (based on extrapolated movement of the trough axis over the previous days) but stops just short of it. I could be wrong, but so long as the ejection or lack thereof remains a day-six-or-later phenomenon, I would not throw in the towel.

[Thunder Road]

Kansas went from a gamble to a Hail Mary to a "what the heck was I thinking?".  Cap city down there now.  We'll probably try playing eastern NE/SD along the cool front on Monday and then head west for a few days of upslope.  Wednesday actually looks pretty decent attm.  Nice consistent veering wind profile, rather than the switchback you often see.

[Ian]

Sunday looks pretty darn good for w SD area on SREF and NAM at this pt. I realize we've had dew pt problems but spc seemed to overcut in their morning discussion. Models moving toward higher confidence in sufficient moisture. Might be wrong but not sure this is a case where prior events are the best guide given the setup. Current short range trends suggest could be more than just structure too. We'll see.

[Thunder Road]

Sunday looks pretty darn good for w SD area on SREF and NAM at this pt. I realize we've had dew pt problems but spc seemed to overcut in their morning discussion. Models moving toward higher confidence in sufficient moisture. Might be wrong but not sure this is a case where prior events are the best guide given the setup. Current short range trends suggest could be more than just structure too. We'll see.

 

I've been ignoring Sunday since we don't leave until tomorrow morning, but damn, you're right.  Where are you guys tonight?

[Ian]

I've been ignoring Sunday since we don't leave until tomorrow morning, but damn, you're right. Where are you guys tonight?

Just got to Indianapolis. Will stay here tonight and then run to Sioux Falls or so tomorrow. Still a tenuous setup perhaps but some decent potential it seems.

[Thunder Road]

Just got to Indianapolis. Will stay here tonight and then run to Sioux Falls or so tomorrow. Still a tenuous setup perhaps but some decent potential it seems.

 

Nice.  Well good luck!

[ZackH]

Towards the end of May it seems there is a slight pattern shift to a more active northern stream. Both major global models seem to have this in some form or fashion. We could be looking at a period of active northern high plains to northern plains weather after 5/27 or so. For now the best shear lags the instability but that's not really something to look at this far out. If the moisture return is there, the northern targets look promising.

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[Chinook]

One slight risk in the next 8 days. What is this, January?

[Ian]

One slight risk in the next 8 days. What is this, January?

There will be more.

Probably payback for getting 9 mod risks during chasecation last yr.

[JoMo]

More of an 'airmass' type variety of storms probably... Shear isn't that strong because wind fields are pretty weak, although some areas do get unstable. 

[Ian]

More of an 'airmass' type variety of storms probably... Shear isn't that strong because wind fields are pretty weak, although some areas do get unstable.

Not sure about that. I know this pattern isn't that exciting for a tornado hound who lives in the Plains but many days in the next 7-10 have the potential for supercells somewhere unless you're just hugging the wildly unreliable GFS. A number may be cap busts. Euro is also driving a pretty good trough into the NW day 8-10.

One thing I've seen is a whole lot of whiny chasers lately. Granted I'd like a better pattern than this but it's the second half of May. I doubt it's a total shutout.

[Chad A]

You need to only look at this storm report from a 0% tornado day, not even a see text to know that in this area of the country just instability and some storms can give you a brief spinup at least... this was pop corn high based shower type stuff... so if you can get precip in the high plains this time of year, you can get severe storms.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140514_rpts.html

Go find that needle in a haystack, which may literally be amongst some haystacks.