tornadotony Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Yeah. It wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world if Jim's 18z prediction verified, but I doubt it. The GGEM still has a slower front well N of I-40 by 00z Mon; plus, it's mid-April, not February. The usual model biases WRT shallow cold fronts must still be accounted for, but unless even the global models start trending SE soon, I'm thinking Sunday's afternoon-evening threat should extend at least as far NW as roughly Graham-Ardmore-McAlester. I'm not convinced it's a marginal threat either. The GFS warm sector is, in a word, impressive, and the upper-level support should actually be out over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 I'm feeling a bit more bearish, but at least it's something to watch! If north Texas does end up with a decent chance of chaseable severe storms Sunday, there's a pretty good chance I'll be out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 lol http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Rinse -> wash -> repeat. Where's HM with some more exciting long range prospects lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 From NWS Tulsa AFD today.............really enough already .SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTWITH MONDAY FEELING VERY RAW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. ADDITIONALLIGHT PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER WAVEPASSES OVERHEAD. FORECAST SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVEFREEZING...HOWEVER A LIGHT RAIN / SNOW MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLEACROSS NE OK / NW AR WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL. CLEARINGSKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE A LATE SEASON FREEZE LIKELY EARLYTUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Tropical forcing will take a while before it really becomes entrenched into nino phases(should take another ~15-25 days). Before this time frame, there does seem to be a transient pattern w/ some interesting potential surrounding the trough around the 23-24th and perhaps more frequent threats past that point. A rather zonal/+NAO look should dominate the north atlantic in addition to more of a positive EPO/RNA look(classic 1mb FW progression). This sets the stage for a plains/SE ridge that could get bullied by pieces of the GOA trough(positioning of these features will be key). For the beginning of May we look to go back towards a +PNA pattern before another wave potentially develops over the IO. It's far from a great pattern, but their should be some threats to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Latest moderate risk trimmed from the previous one and moved slightly north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Well the next week or so looks quiet but I like the fact that we have Gulf of Alaska troughing setting up heading into late April, since lord knows ridging there hasn't done us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 0z GFS has instability up and down the Plains mid to late next week. Has been showing a rather active pattern for multiple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Sorry, bad case of nostalgia. 4/14/11 Beginning of major severe weather outbreak http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/Severe%20Tornado%20Outbreak/20110414_2240_ICT_vis.jpg 4/14/14 Temps in 40's http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/20140414_2001_ICT_vis.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Sorry, bad case of nostalgia. 4/14/11 Beginning of major severe weather outbreak http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/Severe%20Tornado%20Outbreak/20110414_2240_ICT_vis.jpg 4/14/14 Temps in 40's http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/20140414_2001_ICT_vis.jpg Funny thing, both 4/14/11 and 4/14/12 were big days for Oklahoma (albeit different portions). The latter was one of the best April chase days of all time. And we're still paying for it, apparently, with two dismal Aprils for the Plains now. Speaking of which, there's definitely a signal for some sort of trough crashing into the Rockies by late next week around 4/23-4/25. However, there's also a persistent indication of major east coast troughing -- at the very least up until a day or so prior, and at worst continuing as the upstream system attempts to eject from the SW. Naturally, moisture will be a big concern unless this trends in a more favorable direction. The ECMWF solution this morning is rather nauseating, with a major nor'easter and 528 dm H5 low sitting over New England on D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Funny thing, both 4/14/11 and 4/14/12 were big days for Oklahoma (albeit different portions). The latter was one of the best April chase days of all time. And we're still paying for it, apparently, with two dismal Aprils for the Plains now. Speaking of which, there's definitely a signal for some sort of trough crashing into the Rockies by late next week around 4/23-4/25. However, there's also a persistent indication of major east coast troughing -- at the very least up until a day or so prior, and at worst continuing as the upstream system attempts to eject from the SW. Naturally, moisture will be a big concern unless this trends in a more favorable direction. The ECMWF solution this morning is rather nauseating, with a major nor'easter and 528 dm H5 low sitting over New England on D10. Overdone and probably won't even be there on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 It snowed here earlier this morning after the severe thunderstorms and warm weather yesterday. I don't know why people act like this is weird for Spring on the Plains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 It snowed here earlier this morning after the severe thunderstorms and warm weather yesterday. I don't know why people act like this is weird for Spring on the Plains though. Selective memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Overdone and probably won't even be there on the next run.The day 10 ECMWF-EPS mean forecast is actually much more friendly in terms of severe potential. A ridge in the TN/OH Valley with a digging trough over the Rockies. Only subtle troughing into New England. Worlds apart from the OP run, which has 546dm heights over the Delmarva. (EPS mean was >570dm)Edit: 12z GEFS is similar, so maybe our next focus will shift toward the April 23-25/26 time frame for something worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 The day 10 ECMWF-EPS mean forecast is actually much more friendly in terms of severe potential. A ridge in the TN/OH Valley with a digging trough over the Rockies. Yeah that has a pretty decent look and it's actually quite a bit deeper with the trough than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Yeah, to be clear: I was referencing the 14/12z ECMWF as sort of a worst-case scenario within the envelope of solutions. The new 00z GFS looks pretty solid for 4/23-4/24 in the Plains, with sufficient moisture return (widespread low-mid 60s). The downstream pattern is a bit blocky which leads to lukewarm kinematics and teeters on a "crappy ejection" of 2012 fame, but the details can be worked out in the coming days and we've certainly got a system to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Sorry, bad case of nostalgia. 4/14/11 Beginning of major severe weather outbreak http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/Severe%20Tornado%20Outbreak/20110414_2240_ICT_vis.jpg Remember saving this one from somewhere in these pages: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 The CFS continues to show change after mid-month...We'll see if it sticks. Bingo bango. Continues to hit change hard through the end of the month and into May as well. ECMWF/GFS now in range and are showing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Like the drought climatology posted on here. I hope it's the case. I can't stand the lack of rain here in West Texas the past couple years. Of course, I moved here in 2008 and miss Kansas storms. We are on our last reservoir, so rain is essential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Damn that is an intense trough coming through on the Euro (sure it's fairly far north, but obviously track will change). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Potent look on the Euro EPS mean for 192 and 216 hrs, obviously the NE troughing is a bit of a concern but there still would be time for a healthy warm sector to get advected into the Plains given the Western Gulf is basically open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 The upcoming medium range looks tricky. Even the WPC went on about it in their forecast discussion. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 the overall synoptics for next week have me interested in severe weather/tornado potential. Nice to see a trough in the west and some ridging in the east again. the models are showing a pretty potent trough with a few nice speed maxes. the dryline looks nice and sharp to with several dry bulges showing. despite the favorable pattern there are a few concerning things that could hold back the tornado potential. the first being the trough holding back in the SW mostly due to the less than ideal downstream pattern with a blocky look. starting to feel like 2012 again with poor timing issues. the other thing that has me worried to is lack of deep moisture. some ridging over the Gulf doesn't look favorable for the best trajectories to get the real juicy air mass north. models are showing widespread low 60's dews with pockets of mid 60's dews. if that doesn't mix out it could get the job done but with drought so prevalent out there I am not sure. I will be watching this closely because it has good potential for some classic high plains tornado activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Concerns about moisture return notwithstanding, it seems there is a decent consensus for a seasonably strong trough here, which is good to see. I also notice the pattern tries to reload in behind this thing although obviously that's a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 The Euro is fairly robust too, with a 980mb low cutting into North Dakota. This could wind up being an upper Plains/upper Midwest deal for Tuesday/Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday if the current data were to pan out. There's still plenty of time to watch this evolve though. Edit: A closer look at high res data, the Euro blows up another low along the NE/KS border area Wednesday night. Clarity and specifics about this event are very much up in the air, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. SPC could event highlight an area in their extended outlook if the 00z models don't change much from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 SPC could event highlight an area in their extended outlook if the 00z models don't change much from 12z. Not with the questions with moisture return. It'd be pretty depressing if an impressive system like this went to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Not with the questions with moisture return. It'd be pretty depressing if an impressive system like this went to waste. Dew-points aren't overly impressive and the 12z Euro only brings a small sliver of 60 dews up to southwestern Minnesota. Hopefully we can work more moisture into this or perhaps have the trough dig further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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