Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

[Quixotic1]

Hmm, looks like severe wx potential around xmas in Texas, particularly Dallas (where I will be spending the holidays).

Can't remember severe weather on Christmas before. 12z GFS also hints at wintry precip a day or two later and then goofy cold with the -10C 2m line down to the Red River. Wild swings.

[Chinook]

I was just listening to DT (WXrisk) video #2 from last week. He said that December 1979 was an analog for this December given the fact that the QBO was very negative in Fall, trending to less negative, and the fact that it was neutral ENSO (very close to neutral for Fall 1979). December 1979 did indeed have a ridge through the CONUS for a good part of the month. The winter of 1979-1980 turned out to be epic blizzard winter for Fort Collins (113" I think) and there was a big storm on DECEMBER 27-28 1979. This is almost something like we are seeing right now.

[Srain]

The latest CFSv2 forecast certainly does raise an eyebrow as we head toward the January time frame...

[prinsburg_wx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

621 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(FRI/MON)...STILL LOOKING DRY AND SEASONAL WITH

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THIS

TIME FRAME. OF NOTE CONTINUES TO BE THE MID WEEK STORM POTENTIAL.

MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT BUT

THEY ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH LOADS

OF POTENTIAL TO CREATE MASSIVE TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PLAINS. IF OLD MODEL BIASES HOLD TRUE THE SYSTEM ON THE GFS

IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHILE

THE 0Z ECMWF HAS NOW CHANGED QUITE A BIT AND IS FARTHER NORTH AND

WEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHERE THIS ENDS UP BUT THE POTENTIAL IS

THERE FOR A REAL BLOCKBUSTER.

[baroclinic_instability]

Medium range GFS/ECMWF progs eerily similar to Christmas blizzard of 2009 over the plains/central US.

[jcwxguy]

Medium range GFS/ECMWF progs eerily similar to Christmas blizzard of 2009 over the plains/central US.

i agree. That storm was so awesome, hope this one is to

[Iastfan112]

2009 was fascinating to track but disappointing personally. Was forecast to head due north and ended up more NNW which put me very close to the center of the low, very mixed bag of precip. 30 miles west of me got hammered.

[Chinook]

The December 25th storm- now the models are not showing a closed 500mb low in Colorado. It goes through as an open trough, and becomes more of a progressive "panhandle" storm.

[Roon]

The December 25th storm- now the models are not showing a closed 500mb low in Colorado. It goes through as an open trough, and becomes more of a progressive "panhandle" storm.

Could we see a "Texas Hooker"?!

[Srain]

Could we see a "Texas Hooker"?!

[Roon]

Not sure if that is a yes or a no? .

[DFWWeather]

This would produce temperatures in the low to mid teens the day after Christmas night in and around DFW with snow on the ground and is not too dissimilar from what the ECMWF has been showing all week. The 0z today seemed to be an oddball run for this model. The operational GFS is all over the place. So far, from what I have seen since Monday, there have been more models collectively showing some sort of wintry precipitation in and around DFW with this system than rain. Regardless, temperatures should be well below normal here, with or without snow, but especially with snow. Perhpas not even getting above freezing for a day.

[ouamber]

This would produce temperatures in the low to mid teens the day after Christmas night in and around DFW with snow on the ground and is not too dissimilar from what the ECMWF has been showing all week. The 0z today seemed to be an oddball run for this model. The operational GFS is all over the place.

DFW man: What does the Euro show for NE Oklahoma? I was planning on traveling, but if snow is going to be around Tulsa...I may just stay at home:)

[DFWWeather]

DFW man: What does the Euro show for NE Oklahoma? I was planning on traveling, but if snow is going to be around Tulsa...I may just stay at home:)

The state of Oklahoma will undoubtedly see some sort of wintry precip. If they don't, then the system will be much, much weaker than portrayed and move across open and very fast limiting moisture into it from the Gulf. In which case, none of us will see much snow or precip in general. Incidentally, that has been the story for months now, so not too far fetched.

[Srain]

As Jeff mentioned in his morning update, a very active pattern looks to continue as we head toward the end of 2012. A quick moving short wave trough/front passes Friday and then all eyes turn toward the next system dropping S off the California/Baja Pacific Coast. HPC Morning Update regarding the medium range outlook...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1047 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 29 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 02 2013

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE

FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.

AFTER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS

OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COASTAL STORM QUICKLY DEPARTS THE

MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE

EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN. ENERGY

WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BEGIN

TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THE

NORTHERN PORTION SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN

TIER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF

WHILE DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE

AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE U.S....THERE ARE SOME

DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP IN THE MODELS EVEN EARLY IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EAST...MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND

TIMING OF THE BROAD TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS IN REGARDS TO A

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING

NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z

DETERMINISTIC RUNS/ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARE PRETTY WELL TO EACH

OTHER WITH THE EVALUATION OF THE STORM...THEY ARE GENERALLY MORE

PROGRESSIVE/FASTER WITH EXITING THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S

RUNS. ALSO...A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS

FEATURE...WITH LOW POSITIONS AT 00Z ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM OFF THE

SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE. ANY CHANGES IN THE

TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PRETTY BIG IMPACT

ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ESPECIALLY WITH

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

OUT WEST...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DIGGING THE ENERGY

SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN SOME

DIFFERENCES DO EVOLVE BY EARLY SUNDAY. COMPARING 00Z GUIDANCE

FROM THIS MORNING...THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL HOLD

A CLOSED VORTEX BACK OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO

COASTS...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST A

MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO THE FOUR

CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE STILL RUN TO

RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES WITHIN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE DAY 3-4 FORECAST FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT WAS BLENDED WITH

THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY

WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

THE DAY 5-7 FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z

GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT WITH MORE WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE IT WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER/MORE HELD BACK

WITH THE ENERGY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO

COAST...WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF 00Z DETERMINISTIC

RUNS AND SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

GERHARDT

[Srain]

The 12Z Euro is suggesting a rather impressive Winter Storm brewing near the New Year time frame. It appears to have both winter and severe elements involved, if the Euro is correct. The Euro also holds the more southern cut off track across Baja/N Mexico ~vs~ a progressive non event that the GFS has been suggesting. That said the +PNA ridge of high pressure suggested by the ensembles lends a bit of credence to a slowing down or a bit less progressive pattern as the cut off cold core low drops S of California and taps some EPAC moisture. We will see.

HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion this afternoon:

...STORM APPROACHING CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 00Z ECMWF

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SHORT TO MEDIUM WAVELENGTH TROUGH WILL DIG OFF THE COASTS OF

OREGON AND CALIFORNIA... AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION

INLAND BY FRI/SAT. UNLIKE DURING THE RECENT STORMY PATTERN IN THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THIS SYSTEM IS SET TO DIG TOWARD SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. A SPLIT STREAM FEEDING

INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST HAS RESULTED IN

CONSIDERABLE SHORTWAVE COMPLEXITY WHILE THE IDEA OF A DIGGING

LONGER WAVE TROUGH IS CONSISTENT. IN THE 12Z RUNS...SOME SHORTWAVE

DETAILS APPEAR TO RESULT IN THE NAM AND GFS BEING AT THE FAST END

AND THE LESS AMPLIFIED END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN

UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE...WE PREFER THE SLOWER AND

SHARPER DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH OFFERED BY THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN.

VIEWING ALL THE 00Z/12Z GUIDANCE TOGETHER...THE MOST LIKELY PLACE

FOR A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY SATURDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE AT

ROUGHLY THE LOCATION SHOWN IN THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE UKMET.

SUPPORT FOR THIS IS MOST NOTABLY FOUND IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z

CANADIAN...WHEREAS THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO PLACE TOO MUCH

EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE RUN TO RUN CHANGES ARE

LESSENING...BUT WE PREFER THE DETAILS IN THE 00Z ECMWF OVER ITS

12Z RUN.

[BlizzardWx]

There is certainly some potential in the current mid range. Models trying to decide where to drop the trough and how much moisture it brings. Current 00z GFS shows a blizzard for northern Utah but we will see as the ECMWF just came in and looks pretty splitty.

[Srain]

Looking ahead to late next weekend, the 12Z GFS continues to advertise a very sharp  Arctic cold front with a 1050mb High pressure ridge settling S and another attending storm system forming ahead of that front.

[Chinook]

Looking ahead to late next weekend, the 12Z GFS continues to advertise a very sharp  Arctic cold front with a 1050mb High pressure ridge settling S and another attending storm system forming ahead of that front.

 

I'm starting to believe in the cold wave in the long term.

I suppose the devil is in the details with the western/central storm system of Saturday January 12th (which may be snowy for me...) I think there is a -36C here on the ECMWF 240 hour forecast. -36C is kind of impressive, definitely supporting some -20C and -10C 850mb temperatures in the United States. We haven't seen a -20C at 850 for a while, except for some highly cold *surface* temperatures this week in the West.

 

[BlizzardWx]

The 18z GFS is a lot different than the 12z was. It will be interesting to see where the 00z models fall in.

[Srain]

The ensemble guidance remains in agreement that general Eastern trough with embedded short wave (Clipper system) will move across Canada along the Polar Jet and ridging controls the West in the short range.

 

As we head toward the medium range, changes begin to develop across the West as the upper ridge breaks down across the Great Basin and shifts E into the Mid West. Rich Pacific moisture begins streaming E from the EPAC and the sub tropical jet become active. A series of 500mb short waves dive S and meander over the NW Mexico/Arizona/Southern California Regions while a series of disturbances rotate under the base of a developing trough to our W and slide ENE providing clouds and perhaps some light rain chances early next week.

 

As the trough to our West deepens, a general unsettled pattern develops across New Mexico into Texas as pressures fall and an increasing onshore Gulf flow becomes established. During the later half of next week the ensembles are in rather good agreement that a strong storm system will drop SSE from the Gulf of Alaska. This storm appears to have some colder air associated with it as it pulls Canadian air into the Great Basin. There are indications that a potent Winter Storm will begin to slowly develop and eject ENE along the southern stream and a clipper system rides ESE along a stagnant Polar jet across the Great Lakes into the NE. Heights falls across Alaska and a PNA Ridge develops off the Pacific NW flooding Western Canada with ‘warmer air’ while the meandering somewhat cold core upper low is energized by the noisy STJ. The time frame that is of concern would be near February 8th, +/- a couple of days. This is a complex and complicated forecast due to the influence of the MJO, a Kelvin Wave as well as a changing pattern across the N Pacific. As has been mentioned, there are indications that some chilly Canadian air will be dropping S in the mid February time frame. The $64,000 question is will there be a noisy southern stream overhead during the time that colder air arrives. We will see.

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 AM EST FRI FEB 01 2013

VALID 12Z MON FEB 04 2013 - 12Z FRI FEB 08 2013

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING CHANGES IN NORTH AMERICA HAVE BEEN PREDICATED
ON THE EROSION/BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE WAS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN
ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 7. EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONFLUENT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...THE
NORTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  

FROM WEST TO EAST...

IN THE WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TRANSITIONS ON DAY 5...WITH WEST COAST RIDGE
BREAKDOWN AND A SERIES A SHORTWAVES AMPLIFYING A DEEP AND COLD
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...GREAT BASIN AND 4 CORNERS
ON DAYS 6-7. DOWNSTREAM...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
PRECEDES THE PACIFIC FRONT AND MIGRATORY H5 AXIS GENERATES
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE RISK OF HIGH-ELEVATION RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREAT BASIN...SIERRA...FOUR
CORNERS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS EMERGE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. HERE...THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR. THE LEAD
WAVE...A BROAD WARM FRONT INITIALLY...BRINGS A RAPID WARMUP TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL CARVE OUT THE FRIGID ARCTIC
AIRMASS FROM SW TO NE...BUT NOT BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCES SOME LIGHT FREEZING AND
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ON THE SURFACE GRAPHICS...HAVE THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN DAY 5-6...AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAY 7.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE THROUGH DAY 5...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES...NOT
NECESSARILY ALL TO BE ALBERTA CLIPPERS...TRACKING ATOP THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PARTICULARLY...ALONG
THE WESTERN LAKE SHORES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOWLY MODIFYING
UPWARD...WITH A GENERAL WARMUP EXPECTED BY DAY 6 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...AND OHIO VALLEY. MAINE AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE THE LAST PLACES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY...AND BY DAY 6...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY GENERATE LIGHT FREEZING AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
SURFACE GRAPHICS CARRY TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD...(ON
DAY 3 AND DAY 5) WITH A 3RD FRONT ON THE DOORSTEP (APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS) ON DAY 7. ESPECIALLY...SOUTH OF 36N-37N
LATITUDE...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE UP AND DOWN...WITH
WARM ADVECTION...PERIODS OF CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW REPLACED BY NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
THE CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA AND BLUE RIDGE AND SMOKIES.
HERE...THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BENEATH IT...AND 20S TO ITS
NORTH AND 40S TO ITS SOUTH. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONALS CARRY
SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ACROSS THIS TRANSITION ZONE AT THE
SURFACE AND SHEAR ZONE ALOFT.

VOJTESAK
 

 

[BlizzardWx]

Ensemble signal has been pretty strong for days about a snow storm of sorts hitting here about the 8-9th. Looks to stay pretty cool after that with ensembles also starting to entertain the idea of a colder system a few days after and perhaps more snow. Signal isn't as strong on that one yet.

[andyhb]

00z GFS/GGEM seem to want to indicate some sort of severe threat around the 10th.

[brettjrob]

00z GFS/GGEM seem to want to indicate some sort of severe threat around the 10th.

 

I think one key will be the timing and path of the lead wave around mid-week. The Euro digs it more, and the result is not pretty in terms of moisture return come next weekend.

[andyhb]

Yeah, I'd agree with that, if we see a system like the 06z GFS shows, and it has no moisture to work with, that would be rather disappointing.

[Srain]

The 12Z operational Euro trended to what the GFS and its ensembles have been suggesting with a less progressive pattern and a potent Winter Storm developing next Friday into the weekend. In the cold sector, heavy snow and lower elevation rain break out across the Great Basin/Southern/Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Lee side cyclogenesis with increasing Gulf moisture returns suggest a severe potential may well be increasing across Texas on E into Arkansas and Louisiana and points E.

 

[prinsburg_wx]

The 12Z operational Euro trended to what the GFS and its ensembles have been suggesting with a less progressive pattern and a potent Winter Storm developing next Friday into the weekend. In the cold sector, heavy snow and lower elevation rain break out across the Great Basin/Southern/Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Lee side cyclogenesis with increasing Gulf moisture returns suggest a severe potential may well be increasing across Texas on E into Arkansas and Louisiana and points E.

 

02032013 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

02032013 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

02032013 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

 

Not surprising to see the euro cave to the gfs...been like this with most systems up in the n plains this winter...makes me ? the "king status" some give to the euro. Anyway, looks like some good moisture in areas that need it so i hope it all pans out.

[patrick7032]

Concerning the weekend system...there should be a severe event at least in Texas and likely into Oklahoma...perhaps southern Kansas. Oner thing to remember is the parameterzations in the models...esp. with the GFS which starts it's parmeterzation with a climalogical average. With the last system that went through here a few predictable trends were noticed. One...the GFS/NAM had correct moisture with forecasted dews of 50-55 (we actually had 54-58)...but were way short on instability (both had MUCAPEs up to 500 and a few small areas of 750...with SBCAPE of 250-500..and -2 LI's). This not only held true on web based guidence (like COD)...but on my workstation graphics at work. However...when I loaded AWIPS point soundings it forecasted -7 LI's and ~1800 SBCAPE. When the event came through...we had -6 large area and some -8 LI's and 2000 SBCAPE. So it might be a good idea to double the instability parms on the web to get an idea of what instability to expect. For next weekend...so far...the models are bringing more instability further west (into eastern NM)...and we'll have basically a week of preconditioning...as the several fronts which drop south through the area...stall over or just south of my area...and move north as a warm front the next day...allowing minimal dry advection and rapid moist advection/recovery...to possibly prime the area. Not going with a widespread/significant forecast event yet...but it has my attention. Lots can obviously change...but the pattern favors a decent event  based on climatology of early season events going back to 2000...when looking at the paramaters at all levels. The other trend was the models...even 24 hours out...were 6-12 hours to fast t that short range. Just figured I'd let you know what I observed down here on the analysis while working the event at the San Angelo office.

[Srain]

It looks like we are going to see some WSR (Winter Storm Recon) for the Pacific this week...

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031616
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EST SUN 03 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....10-065

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE
       P56/ DROP 9 (44.2N 151.0W)/ 06/0000Z.

 

[Chinook]

Not surprising to see the euro cave to the gfs...been like this with most systems up in the n plains this winter...makes me ? the "king status" some give to the euro. Anyway, looks like some good moisture in areas that need it so i hope it all pans out.

 

I was going to post about the western US trough system. I will wait until it is inside 144 hours to post anything about my back yard. This winter, you just can't trust anything.