ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Right now I'm thinking about hitting SD Friday and then driving to south NE to stay late, then get up early to get down to south KS on Saturday. Obviously this far out that will probably change 1000 times. It is a long way, but its doable. I'm just also hoping for a potential day Sunday, just depends on how progressive the system ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Looks like NW KS or NE CO somewhere in there might be another play on Fri tho maybe not as good of tornado potential but that area is a good one to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Going to be a fun 24 hr drive to be in position Sat. Heh. That's going to be a 24hr drive to end up in a massive chaser convergence situation. I've been around some decent convergence like 4/14/12, but if Saturday pans out then it's going to be an absolute zoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 That's going to be a 24hr drive to end up in a massive chaser convergence situation. I've been around some decent convergence like 4/14/12, but if Saturday pans out then it's going to be an absolute zoo. I'd definitely rather not but at the same time in a year like this who's to want to pass up a potential bigger day if it pans out... even at the start of three weeks out there. I'd be tempted to play further east but the cap is probably going to be too strong on saturday in IL etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Is it South Dakota on Friday or is it more Northern Nebraska near the South Dakota border? Tossing around the idea of hanging out along the KS/OK border the whole time. Would really cut down the gas money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 IMO central to eastern SD is the best area based on the GFS data today... maybe a bit more south than north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 We're heading out to the plains on Friday,wish we could chase then but that doesn't look likely. However, the potential over the weekend is getting us pretty pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Euro very troughy thru the end too, keeps rebuilding on itself. Not sure it looks amazing for the weekend but passable. My maps are pretty rudimentary tho. Does have a 996 low in SW KS late Sat. The day 10 Euro looks great. I love that second trough diving into the PAC NW with that great Canadian block. That will help to keep a troughy western regime, since disturbances move underneath it and tend to slow down a bit. Additionally, it helps to enforce a SE ridge, and of course ample Gulf access. I know obviously we should take this one threat at a time, but the general pattern going forward certainly looks improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Anybody think any of these days involved with the weekend threat have any high risk criteria potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Anybody think any of these days involved with the weekend threat have any high risk criteria potential? Far, far too early to be able to determine this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Anybody think any of these days involved with the weekend threat have any high risk criteria potential? It's 5-6 days out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I can't show the Euro for obvious reason's, however I don't think I would venture to far from the Omaha area from Thursday evening through Sun evening. Even though it looks good further south at some point, I wouldn't risk the move to Kansas or OK and miss the big show that may happen further north. That is based on the 05/12/ 12z model run, of course it could change several times between now and Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 It's 5-6 days out, lol.More like 7-8 days? It was just a question basing off of the current trends, while paying no attention to the fact that it's still aways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I can't show the Euro for obvious reason's, however I don't think I would venture to far from the Omaha area from Thursday evening through Sun evening. Even though it looks good further south at some point, I wouldn't risk the move to Kansas or OK and miss the big show that may happen further north. That is based on the 05/12/ 12z model run, of course it could change several times between now and Wed. Seems like every time I play the triple point/warm front over the southern dryline I always get burned, though. Makes me nervous... the capping in the south could be a blessing or a curse keeping things isolated, but that's if they go. However, I feel like forcing could be strong enough Saturday even in the south, but we will have to see how things trend. That being said there is still some capping in the northern targets on Saturday so it may be a good play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 GFS still leaves a bit to be desired for Sat.. tho maybe makes the north play Fri easier to make. Still seems to be loving western troughing after too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 00z GFS actually now has an interesting look in South Central SD on Thursday evening now. Maybe a bit better in North Central NE. The run definitely has convection breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The whole run of the GFS is amazing.. can we just lock that in please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The whole run of the GFS is amazing.. can we just lock that in please? This. Totally this. Ends up sliding into a May 2008 esque pattern with a monster full-latitude west coast trough that rakes the High Plains day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 00z GFS actually now has an interesting look in South Central SD on Thursday evening now. Maybe a bit better in North Central NE. The run definitely has convection breaking out. I'm liking SD on Friday as well with that run on the lead edge of the stronger mid/upper level flow with the primary trough, right near a pretty potent sfc cyclone with solid LLJ response and ample instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 This. Totally this. Ends up sliding into a May 2008 esque pattern with a monster full-latitude west coast trough that rakes the High Plains day after day. Yeah I knew there was something familiar about that. Chasers would be hacking off limbs to see that play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The GFS, believe it or not shows a strong signal over MN Sat evening, not sure If I believe that or not, but the 144hr gem seems to support it. Will be interesting to see what the gem shows later. If you have wondered what the GGEM shows for EHI values here it is. New this year I think..... http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=12&map=na&mod=gemglb〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Here is another site that shows the GEM before Environmental Canada updates their site http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I'm liking SD on Friday as well with that run on the lead edge of the stronger mid/upper level flow with the primary trough, right near a pretty potent sfc cyclone with solid LLJ response and ample instability. Oh trust me, I'm absolutely giddy about SD on Friday... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The GFS ensemble mean has prominent western troughing for the entire run after this weekend's system as well, that's pretty (read: very) encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Oh trust me, I'm absolutely giddy about SD on Friday... lol The more and more I look at the 00z GFS, the better and better it looks, there really isn't a whole lot missing. Obviously the mid/upper level winds won't be as strong, but the 0-6 km bulk shear is more than sufficient at 35-50 kts with plenty of deep layer moisture, instability, a cap that really doesn't look that beastly at all, strong directional shear in the low levels with sizable clockwise curved hodographs, a rather potent sfc cylone right nearby, low LCLs, a relatively spotless vertical wind profile in terms of BVB or VBV...you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Yah the weaker upper levels can be overcome with instability and directional shear like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The more and more I look at the 00z GFS, the better and better it looks, there really isn't a whole lot missing. Obviously the mid/upper level winds won't be as strong, but the 0-6 km bulk shear is more than sufficient at 35-50 kts with plenty of deep layer moisture, instability, a cap that really doesn't look that beastly at all, strong directional shear in the low levels with sizable clockwise curved hodographs, a rather potent sfc cylone right nearby, low LCLs, a relatively spotless vertical wind profile in terms of BVB or VBV...you name it. The one concern I have is boundary-layer dewpoints mixing out, especially given the ongoing drought. 0Z GFS verbatim has a pretty veered LLJ. Of course this is still a week out so it's prolly still too early to talk about specifics like this, but something to watch for in upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The one concern I have is boundary-layer dewpoints mixing out, especially given the ongoing drought. 0Z GFS verbatim has a pretty veered LLJ. Of course this is still a week out so it's prolly still too early to talk about specifics like this, but something to watch for in upcoming runs. Not in SD on Friday, which is what they are discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 In the longer range, the 00z Euro is setting up a very large upper trough in the West, with a strong northern stream feed coming straight from the Bering Sea essentially. The potential that a pattern like this would hold would be pretty impressive in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 This. Totally this. Ends up sliding into a May 2008 esque pattern with a monster full-latitude west coast trough that rakes the High Plains day after day. The ECMWF is hinting at a similar pattern. I seriously can't remember the last time that type of amplified pattern developed across the western US/plains in late spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Transition the discussion for the mid/late week event here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40218-may-16th-19th-plains-stormsevere-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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