Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 That's a pretty impressive dry line signature that is showing up on the models from like Thursday through Sunday. Then finally the cold front moves through Sunday evening. What's everyones experience chasing along the dry line? What should one look for when doing so? Thurs might be a bit early but some spillover 500 vorticity might spark something up. Friday could be one of those days where like 2 giganto storms go. Crazy instability in KS on the GFS. Dry line is the best for chasing/picturesque storms if it fires up probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Thurs might be a bit early but some spillover 500 vorticity might spark something up. Friday could be one of those days where like 2 giganto storms go. Crazy instability in KS on the GFS. Dry line is the best for chasing/picturesque storms if it fires up probably. The only problem with the dryline is that chaser convergence usually goes bonkers around it not only because it is usually in prime chaser territory, but also everyone knows where initiation is going to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 The only problem with the dryline is that chaser convergence usually goes bonkers around it not only because it is usually in prime chaser territory, but also everyone knows where initiation is going to take place. Even a slight risk is going to be a cluster if it's in that area on the weekend. Might be the first threat from KS sheriffs to arrest chasers for 2013 if it comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 The 12z GFS gives you chances starting as early as Weds in the srn plains (pending you aren't going to south TX on Tues) Weds likes like a few slow moving sups, maybe CDS-ABI along the dryling with 40kts of shear and great directional turning with enough instability. The pressure falls along the dryline in the afternoon On Thursday it wants to bring a subtle wave across the TX PH to increase shear and again you have great directional shear and slow storm motions. Then who knows on Friday, that could be anywhere from I-90 in SD and on southward along the dryline into western OK/TX. Saturday might end up being "the day" but with the Euro slower and possibly Sunday being it, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Still pretty varied solutions on the main event. GFS is fairly fast as it doesn't dig much till late. Still a decent risk tho. Might focus on Midwest this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 GFS is a nice run all the way it seems. My friend the Memorial Day EC ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 I'm in Topeka, would you guys say this weekend is looking good in terms of just sticking around here to see some action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 I'm in Topeka, would you guys say this weekend is looking good in terms of just sticking around here to see some action? Most definitely. Let the storms come to you. I think they will sometime this weekend. This is the best large scale synoptic set up we have had for quite some time. From Topeka Sun.afternoon AFD.... A TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MAY ALLOWFOR THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH WITH WARMERREADINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THEPOTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN/HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THEPOTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Saturday looks decent if you stay there, but Sunday you'll probably have to go east... At least ATTM, but location/timing will probably change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 GFS is a nice run all the way it seems. My friend the Memorial Day EC ridge. I can tell you are getting excited! I'm not used to this Ian. I'm used to the "winter Ian" that keeps reminding the Mid Atlantic folk that snow is not happening, lol. Anyway, it is no coincidence that the GFS long range has improved for you ever since it has correctly modeled the MJO now to die off in phase 4-5 like the ECMWF. It may be quick to bring it back to life in phase 8-1 toward the end of the run, unlike the ECMWF, but it certainly now has the short-range projections right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Like Ian said earlier, Friday looks great for an isolated storm or two to develop in western KS. LI's around -15, and 4000+ CAPE, but there is a pretty stout cap... Tornado potential is a little iffy with negligible Low level shear per the 06Z GFS, but definitely potential for gigantic hail if any storms do develop IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 The fact that the GFS is the least amplified of the modeling so far today and looks that threatening on Saturday is pretty alarming. Alright, I'm done hyping for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 I can tell you are getting excited! I'm not used to this Ian. I'm used to the "winter Ian" that keeps reminding the Mid Atlantic folk that snow is not happening, lol. Anyway, it is no coincidence that the GFS long range has improved for you ever since it has correctly modeled the MJO now to die off in phase 4-5 like the ECMWF. It may be quick to bring it back to life in phase 8-1 toward the end of the run, unlike the ECMWF, but it certainly now has the short-range projections right. Nothing like a great supercell IMO. On the flip side a week or sunshine isn't as fun the third long trip as the first. I have mostly been cautiously optimistic but it's good to see a run like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Using the spaghetti plots and ensemble mean, the 12z GFS op is clearly faster and less amplified than the ensemble members. The GGEM to some extent and new UKMET are definitely in that camp of slower/deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Euro very troughy thru the end too, keeps rebuilding on itself. Not sure it looks amazing for the weekend but passable. My maps are pretty rudimentary tho. Does have a 996 low in SW KS late Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Anybody else feel that the GFS is really over doing the instability for Friday/ next weekend? With really widespread 3000+ CAPE at hr 156... Don't know what the ECMWF looks like though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Anybody else feel that the GFS is really over doing the instability for Friday/ next weekend? With really widespread 3000+ CAPE at hr 156... Don't know what the ECMWF looks like though... ECMWF tends to agree, Friday shows 1500-2200 j/kg from Austin to Lincoln. Saturday puts a bulls eye over the KVNX radar site of 4-5 j/g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Anybody else feel that the GFS is really over doing the instability for Friday/ next weekend? With really widespread 3000+ CAPE at hr 156... Don't know what the ECMWF looks like though... Not with a generally wide open Western Gulf and at least two days of boundary layer modification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Anybody else feel that the GFS is really over doing the instability for Friday/ next weekend? With really widespread 3000+ CAPE at hr 156... Don't know what the ECMWF looks like though... The Euro is showing a good amount of CAPE from Friday-Sunday so I would say that there is decent agreement with the GFS for having some good instability. I think the GFS typically over does CAPE though so I would factor that in, but I may be wrong so feel free to correct me on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Ok thanks, wasn't entirely sure how much faith to put into those 4000+ CAPE values across the eastern half of KS... Still not entirely sold on next weekend's potential though in terms of it being a big outbreak, there will obviously be at least some Svr Wx though... The upper level support isn't overly impressive, nor are wind fields so not sold on this one yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 GFS still looks like it might favor east of the Plains at least at 500 (ie Sunday$ tho its suggestive of interesting goings on Fri in SD and Sat in KS etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 cereal_guy_meme_top.pnglol. That's one scary sounding... 350 helicities, 5000+ CAPE, and a perfect hodograph. Nice picture too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: the IL/IN/MI threat on 05/19: The large Aleutian cyclone on the operational GFS causes a large Rex block developing over W Canada circa Day 6, thereby allowing a substantial inversion ahead of the frontal forcing on Day 7 and also allowing a substantial negative tilt to develop. Such a set-up would encourage substantial sunlight over the warm sector to mix out dews / instability somewhat and would create some opportunity for convection to slow the retreat of the warm front, though the cap should prevent this. This does cut down on the pre-frontal QPF but does suggest a bowing QLCS with some damaging winds on 05/19 in the Chicago area based upon low-level wind fields. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39895-2013-glov-severe-weather-discussion/ Also, that sounding is sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Sorry about my noobness, but when it says valid 05-19 at 00Z does that mean 7PM on Sunday, or 7PM on Saturday for Central Daylight time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Sorry about my noobness, but when it says valid 05-19 at 00Z does that mean 7PM on Sunday, or 7PM on Saturday for Central Daylight time? Saturday at 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I'm slowly becoming a believer in next weekend... not an outbreak by any means, but several consecutive days with good chase potential. Maybe premature, but one of my biggest concerns right now is the gargantuan distance between what seem the areas of interest Friday (SD) and Saturday (OK/S KS). Could mean either a sleep-deprivation bend or being forced to choose between days, which doesn't feel great in a year like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I'm slowly becoming a believer in next weekend... not an outbreak by any means, but several consecutive days with good chase potential. Maybe premature, but one of my biggest concerns right now is the gargantuan distance between what seem the areas of interest Friday (SD) and Saturday (OK/S KS). Could mean either a sleep-deprivation bend or being forced to choose between days, which doesn't feel great in a year like this.Still have a few days to decide, by then there will probably an outlier in terms of which day/ area will have the best potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Guess I shouldn't be ruling out an outbreak scenario, either... the GEFS mean could be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Still have a few days to decide, by then there will probably an outlier in terms of which day/ area will have the best potential.Looks like NW KS or NE CO somewhere in there might be another play on Fri tho maybe not as good of tornado potential but that area is a good one to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Going to be a fun 24 hr drive to be in position Sat. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.