andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 GFS looks a bit better for the weekend "event". I'd love to slow it down a day but might be worth hauling west for it. Dakotas chases are fun. My concern is we'll have nothing after that for like 5-7 days. Guess we'll visit Yellowstone or something. Yeah I haven't seen the tropospheric winds yet but this run appears to have a more consolidated anomaly with a tighter height gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Yeah I haven't seen the tropospheric winds yet but this run appears to have a more consolidated anomaly with a tighter height gradient. Think the glimmer of hope is the model variance run to run is still pretty big. I'd guess the weekend event would more likely trend good than bad at this pt. The vortex north of the lakes needs to be pretty strong to totally screw it. But after the wave there's lots of hint at the jet going to the north pole at least for a few days. I wouldn't be shocked if the models are wrong but still disconcerting. Plus the GFS and Euro have a tornado look for our home a few days after we leave.. not that local tornadoes are any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 But after the wave there's lots of hint at the jet going to the north pole at least for a few days. I wouldn't be shocked if the models are wrong but still disconcerting. Plus the GFS and Euro have a tornado look for our home a few days after we leave.. not that local tornadoes are any good. Yeah I noticed this yesterday with a s/w diving out of the Great Lakes region, although the 12z GFS lessens that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 At least if the northern plains setup trends upwards, the chaser convergence won't be AS bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 It really is a shame that the moisture is most likely being overdone in the models for Tuesday in MN/WI... along with the capping issues, because the wind fields look pretty nice. The AFDs do a good job of explaining the overdone moisture. The Canadian high is blocking gulf moisture and the models are probably getting their moisture profiles from evapotranspiration. But since growing season hasn't really started, that's not very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 At least if the northern plains setup trends upwards, the chaser convergence won't be AS bad. You'll probably get less rando newbs but given the season and that it's a weekend.. people will probably be itching to chase even a marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 You'll probably get less rando newbs but given the season and that it's a weekend.. people will probably be itching to chase even a marginal setup. On COD's page, the 12z GFS verbatim looks pretty nice for the weekend threat, all things considered. Obviously capping may become a bit of a concern, but that can be dealt with closer in if we still see something like this later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 You'll probably get less rando newbs but given the season and that it's a weekend.. people will probably be itching to chase even a marginal setup. I agree, there will still be tons of folks... but compared to a similar event in OK of KS it should be a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 On COD's page, the 12z GFS verbatim looks pretty nice for the weekend threat, all things considered. Obviously capping may become a bit of a concern, but that can be dealt with closer in if we still see something like this later on. Friday would look fairly appealing for KS/NE if a thing called "upper flow over the unstable warm sector" weren't extinct on the Plains. RIP 2011. Not sure about Saturday, verbatim, with a bit of a cold-fronty/anafrontal look going on. Some potential for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Friday would look fairly appealing for KS/NE if a thing called "upper flow over the unstable warm sector" weren't extinct on the Plains. RIP 2011. Not sure about Saturday, verbatim, with a bit of a cold-fronty/anafrontal look going on. Some potential for sure. Hmm, I didn't really see much of this. As for Friday, the bulk of the trough is still over the Intermountain West, although there is a lead shortwave that ejects there that does temporarily increase the mid/upper level flow. Quite frankly, the ambient mid/upper flow on Friday isn't that bad when you take into account the strength of the LLJ and the amount of instability in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 It really is a shame that the moisture is most likely being overdone in the models for Tuesday in MN/WI... along with the capping issues, because the wind fields look pretty nice. The AFDs do a good job of explaining the overdone moisture. The Canadian high is blocking gulf moisture and the models are probably getting their moisture profiles from evapotranspiration. But since growing season hasn't really started, that's not very likely. Yeah, 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE in some of these GFS runs across the Dakotas, on the heels of a deep trough which effectively wipes the GOM clean for the foreseeable future, laughable. Good luck. In June/July, maybe, but not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Friday would look fairly appealing for KS/NE if a thing called "upper flow over the unstable warm sector" weren't extinct on the Plains. RIP 2011. Not sure about Saturday, verbatim, with a bit of a cold-fronty/anafrontal look going on. Some potential for sure. Looks pretty solid in SD if something goes up there on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 GGEM also has some sort of multi-day potential starting Saturday (in all likelihood) and then continuing on Sunday and Monday, almost looks to start up north, then move south with secondary leeside cyclogenesis (and a subtly negatively tilted shortwave), and then northeast into the Great Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 12z Euro has a pretty large (and decently amplified), broad-based trough developing in the West through 168, quite the 180 from the previous run. Drops into the Four Corners region by 192. Ian, I'm not sure if you can see 204, but I'd imagine it shows some sort of setup over the Southern Plains at this time. Another trough incoming at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_chip Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 12z Euro has a pretty large (and decently amplified), broad-based trough developing in the West through 168, quite the 180 from the previous run. Drops into the Four Corners region by 192. Ian, I'm not sure if you can see 204, but I'd imagine it shows some sort of setup over the Southern Plains at this time. Another trough incoming at the end of the run. Last run aside, the Euro has been the most aggressive with this system through the week. I have been putting my money during that time and still keep it there. Lets hope she keeps it that-a-way. Really hoping that system dips south more. Would be a long drive to OK and an even longer drive the next day back to SD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 12z Euro has a pretty large (and decently amplified), broad-based trough developing in the West through 168, quite the 180 from the previous run. Drops into the Four Corners region by 192. Ian, I'm not sure if you can see 204, but I'd imagine it shows some sort of setup over the Southern Plains at this time. Another trough incoming at the end of the run. sweet run.. like a 4 day event starting fri. the 500mb ejection looks pretty good on my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 sweet run.. like a 4 day event starting fri. the 500mb ejection looks pretty good on my maps. Yeah this is a really good looking run for almost everybody, quite frankly the entire 12z model suite looks pretty decent. Now if we can get some more consistency with the more southward extent of the Euro and GGEM, then I'll grow interested towards "chaser land". It becomes pretty clear that the Gulf opens up by the time this trough takes shape, unlike the Tuesday nonsense with the instability in MN/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 The 12z Euro would be 3 possible good dryline days Fri-Sun with a few possible decent days before that but it's really starting to look better. It's hard not to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 For the first time since mid April, there are some model solutions I could actually get excited over should they persist. Specifically, the 12z GGEM looks fairly impressive for KS/OK/TX at H+204 (next Sunday). Interpolating between ECMWF frames suggests it should be at least somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Euro ens mean is more or less in line with the op for the late week/weekend.. a little weaker but prob smoothing etc. The pattern after is actually pretty decent too.. kinda climo overall but favoring troughing west. Interesting to see shifts. Hopefully tomorrow isn't another down day heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 The 12 z Euro made me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Several of the 18z GFS ensemble members appear to have bit on this deeper, more organized look with the trough next weekend, which would obviously shift the primary threat substantially. One thing is for sure, if something like this does end up playing out, the chaser convergence is going to be otherworldly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Both 12z Euro and 18z GFS are in lock step (for being 190 hrs out). Instability is just insane.. Euro has 4000-5000 j/kg on Sat near Woodward while the GFS (18z) has 5000-6000 j/kg near Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Euro ens mean is more or less in line with the op for the late week/weekend.. a little weaker but prob smoothing etc. The pattern after is actually pretty decent too.. kinda climo overall but favoring troughing west. Interesting to see shifts. Hopefully tomorrow isn't another down day heh. If the Euro OP and ensembles are right, there isn't that long of a break after the first wave. A really nice European 12z Suite for sure today. There may be a retreating north of some sorts, but the Central Canadian block should still force some energy to the south, which is why I'm cautiously optimistic from a chasecation perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 00z GFS continues to show a much more organized system with a pretty classic low level cyclogenesis episode taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 0z GFS would be too great days Friday and Saturday if you get CI. It's crazy how much better the mid-level jet looks on this 0z run for those few days. Obviously too early to get into the smaller details but getting these large scale synoptic signals is so nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 0z GFS would be too great days Friday and Saturday if you get CI. It's crazy how much better the mid-level jet looks on this 0z run for those few days. Obviously too early to get into the smaller details but getting these large scale synoptic signals is so nice to see. Not to mention back east towards the GL on Sunday. 00z GGEM and Ukie (extrapolated based on 144 hr position) are more in line with the 12z Euro with a more southern track that puts more aim on the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Good run. Lee cyclogensis prevailing with thunderstorms almost every day. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gefs-mnsprd&cycle=00&area=namer¶m=cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Definitely looking at the most interesting threats in almost a month. Looks more like classic plains weather with daily dryline threats over the higher plains preceding the trof and deeper diurnally driven SSEasterlies. In terms of the guidance, almost every model pegs Saturday (and maybe Sunday) as the most potentially active days...possibly stretching from northern NE to the TX Panhandle. Some of the various global solutions would actually support some impressive late season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 That's a pretty impressive dry line signature that is showing up on the models from like Thursday through Sunday. Then finally the cold front moves through Sunday evening. What's everyones experience chasing along the dry line? What should one look for when doing so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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