Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

[JoMo]

You all are starting to resemble me when I haven't had any snow. I guess there is such a thing as a severe weather weenie?

[andyhb]

You all are starting to resemble me when I haven't had any snow. I guess there is such a thing as a severe weather weenie?

 

 

For me, I think it's just the lack of anything to come together during the Spring since the aforementioned date last year.

[Ian]

Euro ens still pretty zonal overall in long range. Not great but not the worst by mid may and beyond.

As far as numbers we are probably cooked as far as avg unless tropics add em up. Losing Mar/April and at least a chunk of May hurts there no doubt.

[MidwestChaser]

 

'ello there. What's all this then?

[Ian]

384 gfs looks good.. high instability ftw.

[Chicago Storm]

I still see some subtle potential for Thurs and Fri next week... I agree the moisture may be the main limiting factor for Wed... nothing spectacular but still worth watching.  Forcing may be an issue every day.

There are way to many negatives. Moisture issues early on is just one of many things.

[ZackH]

There are way to many negatives. Moisture issues early on is just one of many things.

 

It does keep looking more and more feeble... I have a baby coming around June 23rd... when 2013 started I said to myself, surely I will have plenty of setups to chase before June 15th ish... lol, maybe not...

[thewxmann]

It is borderline surreal. I've always thought that among the big three weenie phenomena (severe, winter, tropical), our is by far the most reliable to deliver on a year-to-year basis. The other two regularly get a year that more or less fails to show up at all for the U.S. region of interest, and occasionally multi-year stretches, but it's a real rarity for us.

 

This period kinda reminds me of the late 1980s. Gosh, those were a bad series of years... we'd all commit weenie suicide if we had to go through that again. But I guess now we're just all paying, so to speak, for the hyperactive 2008 and 2011.

[Ian]

LR is still moving in the right direction IMO.. or at least not the wrong one. Think the next 10 days is going to be tough one way or another given bad moisture etc. GFS has some hints of big time troughs late near the west coast in recent runs and seems by 15th+ moisture is finally going to want to try to stream north. Still bouncing and in la la land but often a signal something might be afoot.

 

One thing you can almost always bank on is a good east coast ridge near Memorial Day.  Something's gotta break at some pt. Might as well make it 2nd half May or so.

[CT Rain]

LR is still moving in the right direction IMO.. or at least not the wrong one. Think the next 10 days is going to be tough one way or another given bad moisture etc. GFS has some hints of big time troughs late near the west coast in recent runs and seems by 15th+ moisture is finally going to want to try to stream north. Still bouncing and in la la land but often a signal something might be afoot.

 

One thing you can almost always bank on is a good east coast ridge near Memorial Day.  Something's gotta break at some pt. Might as well make it 2nd half May or so.

 

When do you guys get out there?

[Ellinwood]

When do you guys get out there?

Head out from MD on the 18th... first plausible chase day is the 19th.

[CT Rain]

Head out from MD on the 18th... first plausible chase day is the 19th.

 

Nice! Good thing you guys aren't doing early May!!

[Ian]

Nice! Good thing you guys aren't doing early May!!

Better tan potential late May. Euro ens refuses to look all that great. Keeps varied low heights over gulf or lakes into end. Times like these I wish models didn't run 14-16+ days out.

[wxmeddler]

Better tan potential late May. Euro ens refuses to look all that great. Keeps varied low heights over gulf or lakes into end. Times like these I wish models didn't run 14-16+ days out.

 

Heh, if it wasn't for my finals week being the week of the 13th, we would be gone starting on the 11th. Right in time for next arctic plunge.

[brettjrob]

Better tan potential late May. Euro ens refuses to look all that great. Keeps varied low heights over gulf or lakes into end. Times like these I wish models didn't run 14-16+ days out.

 

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, but it's been nothing short of suicide material lately. The only saving grace is that it's a new, experimental product with no basis for comparisons to previous years, so at least there's some justification for burying our heads in the sand. #2013excuses

 

http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/

 

No joke, though, I'm damn close to the point I'd be willing to concede the season just to guarantee frequent sun and highs 70+ from here on out. Hard to remember a time in my life I've been as thoroughly depressed over the weather overall as the past month.

[Ian]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, but it's been nothing short of suicide material lately. The only saving grace is that it's a new, experimental product with no basis for comparisons to previous years, so at least there's some justification for burying our heads in the sand. #2013excuses

 

http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/

 

No joke, though, I'm damn close to the point I'd be willing to concede the season just to guarantee frequent sun and highs 70+ from here on out. Hard to remember a time in my life I've been as thoroughly depressed over the weather overall as the past month.

 

I'm not too familiar with that.. first time I've actually clicked around. It does look rather ugly heh. I did query Mark about possibly pushing our trip back a week.   Though going too deep into June might be dangerous these days.

 

Bizarre spring all around.. not quite sure what to think going forward.  It's been pretty amazing here the last month or so though if you can deal with clouds at times.

[andyhb]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, but it's been nothing short of suicide material lately. The only saving grace is that it's a new, experimental product with no basis for comparisons to previous years, so at least there's some justification for burying our heads in the sand. #2013excuses

 

http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/

 

No joke, though, I'm damn close to the point I'd be willing to concede the season just to guarantee frequent sun and highs 70+ from here on out. Hard to remember a time in my life I've been as thoroughly depressed over the weather overall as the past month.

 

I'm not sure if you are only talking about the Southern Plains, but I'm not willing to concede June.

[brettjrob]

I'm not sure if you are only talking about the Southern Plains, but I'm not willing to concede June.

 

I was just joking about how god-awful the sensible wx has been here lately, meaning I'd sacrifice chases* just to get it warm and sunny. Spring is my favorite season even aside from chasing, so arctic blasts that wipe the Gulf and make us bust out heavy coats in May are tough to take.

 

*only a sacrifice if chases actually occur regardless

[LocoAko]

 

I was just joking about how god-awful the sensible wx has been here lately, meaning I'd sacrifice chases* just to get it warm and sunny. Spring is my favorite season even aside from chasing, so arctic blasts that wipe the Gulf and make us bust out heavy coats in May are tough to take.

 

*only a sacrifice if chases actually occur regardless

 

Psh. I don't know about you, but I loved having to wear a hoodie and peacoat in order to sit outside under overcast skies last night in May in the Southern Plains. Isn't this what dreams are made of? 

[Dsnowx53]

LR is still moving in the right direction IMO.. or at least not the wrong one. Think the next 10 days is going to be tough one way or another given bad moisture etc. GFS has some hints of big time troughs late near the west coast in recent runs and seems by 15th+ moisture is finally going to want to try to stream north. Still bouncing and in la la land but often a signal something might be afoot.

 

One thing you can almost always bank on is a good east coast ridge near Memorial Day.  Something's gotta break at some pt. Might as well make it 2nd half May or so.

 

 

I feel the same way. Looks like there is a signal for at least some troughiness out west as we head towards the 20th. Combine that with some higher latitude blocking and we might be able to pull something off.

 

I'm heading out from May 22 - June 3. Although I agree with the sentiment that it seems that this year won't have shattering numbers, I am cautiously optimistic for the post 20th of May - early June period. 

[Ian]

I feel the same way. Looks like there is a signal for at least some troughiness out west as we head towards the 20th. Combine that with some higher latitude blocking and we might be able to pull something off.

I'm heading out from May 22 - June 3. Although I agree with the sentiment that it seems that this year won't have shattering numbers, I am cautiously optimistic for the post 20th of May - early June period.

GEFS pretty consistent in getting better southwest jet winds at least across the central High Plains by like 18th+ .. Euro is to a degree as well but not quite as good perhaps. Still too far out to have any real confidence but good to see it run to run lately. Of course the op GFS places a nice upper ridge over the east central Plains late.. but still has western troughing. For now seems we just want to get it warm and primed. I could go for a few days hanging around the Black Hills.

I could see one of these next few events being 'ok' as well.

We'll see. Good thing about deep valleys is you can't get much lower.

[andyhb]

Looks like Bishop (Jim) is becoming increasingly optimistic.

 

http://stormgasm.com/blog/?p=1510

[radarman]

 

I was just joking about how god-awful the sensible wx has been here lately, meaning I'd sacrifice chases* just to get it warm and sunny. Spring is my favorite season even aside from chasing, so arctic blasts that wipe the Gulf and make us bust out heavy coats in May are tough to take.

 

*only a sacrifice if chases actually occur regardless

 

Have to agree, the southern plains are incredibly nice in the spring with the wildflowers blooming before everything dries out.  The wind makes the grass appear to flow like a river.  One thing I really miss about not having a radar in Cyril anymore was my annual spring maintenance trip... for scenery as much as the threat of storms.  Hope things turn around for your chasing!  It's been even less interesting in TX I can tell you that. 

[Ian]

Looks like Bishop (Jim) is becoming increasingly optimistic.

http://stormgasm.com/blog/?p=1510

6z GFS must not have read that

[HM]

I feel the same way. Looks like there is a signal for at least some troughiness out west as we head towards the 20th. Combine that with some higher latitude blocking and we might be able to pull something off.

 

I'm heading out from May 22 - June 3. Although I agree with the sentiment that it seems that this year won't have shattering numbers, I am cautiously optimistic for the post 20th of May - early June period. 

 

This is a good point. We've been talking a lot about "delayed spring" and "snow cover" but that stuff gets trumped quite easily in mid to late spring when the jet stream retreats (their effect is tertiary to main global factors that affect the jet stream and their teleconnections). A nice -AO plunge that recovers afterwards along with the MJO pushing into "favorable phases" is usually a better recipe than either one acting alone.

 

2005 is a great example of why the MJO can't always save you.

[HM]

Looks like Bishop (Jim) is becoming increasingly optimistic.

 

http://stormgasm.com/blog/?p=1510

 

While I agree with the general premise, keep in mind that the situation is a little cloudier than how he is making it out here. Yes, it is great that the MJO has come to life which can enhance the Pacific Jet and bring a tendency for western height falls down the road. But, the mass flux fields associated with the MJO are still well entrenched across phase 1 / Atlantic-Africa Sector and are beginning to enter the IO. The initial convection over the central IO is the Kelvin Wave. What I'm getting at here is that this is a sloooow process, which he more or less implied I guess.

 

Also, how the MJO manifests is just as important as its phase speed/amplitude and during what AO phase. Will the MJO plow straight through phase 6-7 or will it enter the C.O.D. in some phase beforehand? Will the AO remain very positive straight through the month?

[HM]

6z GFS must not have read that

 

I agree that the operational GFS and ECMWF have been discouraging. The good news is that there is considerable spread among the ensemble members and both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means aren't as discouraging. I hoping this is the models ingesting the effects from the extreme Atlantic-IO forcing and that we will take a couple steps forward in the days ahead after this recent step backwards.

[Thundersnow12]

I agree that the operational GFS and ECMWF have been discouraging. The good news is that there is considerable spread among the ensemble members and both the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means aren't as discouraging. I hoping this is the models ingesting the effects from the extreme Atlantic-IO forcing and that we will take a couple steps forward in the days ahead after this recent step backwards.

 

Thanks for the optimism cause I don't have much right now lol  

[HM]

Thanks for the optimism cause I don't have much right now lol  

 

And just like that the new 12z data is interesting in the middle of your trip.

 

Funny thing about that is that one of the top QBO-ENSO-PAC-MJO analogs is 1990. There was an outbreak, as you probably know, on 5/15. All hope is not lost. We just need to get this thing moving along in the Tropics (MJO) and stop this nonsense of cold fronts into the Gulf.

 

For our friends in the Midwest, June got really nasty for you folks in 1990 and pretty much most of the summer too.

[andyhb]

June of that year was basically set in stone when it was kicked off by easily the most significant event in the OV since 4/3/74 (I think) and until 3/2 last year. 5/31/85 was more of a Great Lakes event around Lake Erie.