Ian Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Chase maps 1990-2011 and climo! http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/05/03/tornado-chasing-mapping-the-typical-peak-since-1990-plus-longer-term-climatology/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Chase maps 1990-2011 and climo! http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/05/03/tornado-chasing-mapping-the-typical-peak-since-1990-plus-longer-term-climatology/ Good stuff! It might also be interesting to look at the probability of a chaseable tornado within a certain area for each month or 15 day period based on the climo maps. I'll be going chasing from the end of May to the first week of June so hopefully we'll see a year like 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Good stuff! It might also be interesting to look at the probability of a chaseable tornado within a certain area for each month or 15 day period based on the climo maps. I'll be going chasing from the end of May to the first week of June so hopefully we'll see a year like 2008. thanks. i'll have to work on not being a n00b first for that but a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 There will be good days within a slow pattern, just like always. Assume you're open to Northern Plains. Sometimes it goes later in the month, and hopefully less crowded. Chaser congestion has been brutal the last few years in OK and KS. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 There will be good days within a slow pattern, just like always. Assume you're open to Northern Plains. Sometimes it goes later in the month, and hopefully less crowded. Chaser congestion has been brutal the last few years in OK and KS. Good luck! It's getting to be about the same up here when it comes to chaser convergence. .last year June 17th in South Dakota was just a mess. Our secret is out, I've seen some of my best tornadoes in the month of August here in Minnesota alone. Kinda funny after those "busy days" you go on Facebook and see literally the same picture posted 50 times by different people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 A lot of the "analog" years I've seen tossed about the last few mo have had a number of violent tornado days on the later side of typical. Then again, some of the others are awful seasons.. guess I'll bank on the fact that I've seen more good years tossed out there than bad by at least 1 or 2. Yeah analogs for severe weather, solely, are useless. A lot periods that fail may have had too many "El Niño-like" characteristics with a very active / fast MJO propagating around fully. This is not always the rule, as you know. The years that turned around, severe-wise, had a nice shift in the pattern where blocking developed in the Gulf of Alaska and somewhere in the NAO domain. This forces the cold air to be displaced into the western third of the USA with a ridge across the Southeast (this same blocking signal in the winter means you and I freeze but shorter wavelengths of May/June put the trough in the West). A phase 3-4-5 MJO can get the job done as long as it is legitimate and slow. A fast and furious MJO may hardly make a dent in the Mid Latitudes, especially if the default state is more phase 7-2. The best years may even see the MJO die off completely in phase 4-5, possibly looping there through June or barely registering again (holding that Mid Latitude pattern longer, since the MJO cannot force a new pattern beyond). The latest euro weeklies do exactly this scenario with the tropical forcing while the GFS suite seems to want to keep it more fast/furious beyond 5/10. We'll see. Our biggest trouble, this year, is fighting the background state which wants to keep the IO on fire and keep the western Tropical Pacific to Dateline convection going. When these areas dominate, the long-waves can become unfavorable for Tornado Alley. It doesn't mean you won't see anything, it is just against you in the long-run. It is reassuring to know that 2004 and 1981 are some of the better tropical forcing analogs, despite 2004's faster timing. Other years that are okay in that department are 2010, 1995 and 1990. There are a lot of others that are arguable but in my opinion lack. Those years are 2005, 1998, 1992, 1989, 1979, 1977 and 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 12z GFS is actually pretty impressive with the threat middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Little faster this run as 5/10 looked pretty good on the 12z run. Man I was pulling for you too! The trends clearly are faster but all hope is not lost for 5/10 itself. Any chance you can move your trip a day or two sooner should conditions warrant next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 12z GFS is actually pretty impressive with the threat middle of next week Man, plenty of scenarios with next week on the 12z data so far. Will the first piece Tues-Wed advance eastward, leaving the cutoff behind for a slower arrival (UKMET) or will there be more interaction (GFS)? Perhaps a compromise of the two (GGEM)? lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The earliest I can get down is going to be 5/9 (leaving the afternoon of 5/8)... now the GFS makes 5/8 look pretty decent with some potential on 5/9 and 5/10... I was hoping more of a 5/9, 5/10, 5/11.... I hope it slows down just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Man I was pulling for you too! The trends clearly are faster but all hope is not lost for 5/10 itself. Any chance you can move your trip a day or two sooner should conditions warrant next week? Nope. Earliest we can leave is Thursday evening to get down there for a worthy setup on Friday. Looks like several down days after that depending what comes into the western US after that. Maybe northern plains opportunities by 5/14? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Nope. Earliest we can leave is Thursday evening to get down there for a worthy setup on Friday. Looks like several down days after that depending what comes into the western US after that. Maybe northern plains opportunities by 5/14? Who knows. Well, you still have a solid chance 5/10. As the ridge builds in behind this departing mess, it looks like your focus will shift into the Northern and N-C / western High Plains. GFS ensembles agree with the op in delivering opportunity up that way. The focus could come back south again 5/16-5/20 with more cold air dropping into the West. I suspect the pattern is transient and today's 12z GGEM/GFS (haven't seen ECMWF yet) offer the potential for the next trough to swing in during that time. The tropical forcing moving squarely into phase 4-5 also favors troughs to dive into the West, preventing the ridge from staying firmly in place. Keep an eye on the MJO forecasts, particularly the GFS, ECMWF and Euro Weeklies. We want the MJO to slow down and even die across phase 4-5. We don't want a very strong and/or very quick-moving MJO plowing quickly into phase 6-7 and beyond. Not the death blow by any means but makes things tougher day-to-day over the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 18z and 12z GFS runs compared at 240hr. 6hr time difference but quite the difference regarding the placement of that big system/trof that is progged to come ashore late next week/next weekend. 18z GFS had it further south attempting to crash into the ridge out ahead of it and bring WSW'ly/zonal flow into the northern/central plains by Tues/Weds of that following week where the 12z run had it further north and more ridging out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 The European suites continue to suggest the MJO slowing in progression and perhaps even dying in phase 4-5. What is a bit more concerning is that massive Northeast ULL showing up near the end of the run, with a block out in the Atlantic ahead of it (on the 12z Euro). If that were to turn out less amplified and/or more progressive/further northeast than suggested, the Pacific pattern doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 What is a bit more concerning is that massive Northeast ULL showing up near the end of the run, with a block out in the Atlantic ahead of it (on the 12z Euro). Seasonal trends die hard. Also, I'm beginning to doubt moisture for the marginal mid-week opportunities in the SP, especially Wed. We may yet be two weeks out from the first real setup of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 It continues to look like we won't see a somewhat more favorable pattern for decent action until around the 20th (And that might be at the earliest). It's gonna be interesting to watch chaser reaction when we make it to mid-month and things are still not looking good...Especially since many thought May would be the savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 The European suites continue to suggest the MJO slowing in progression and perhaps even dying in phase 4-5. What is a bit more concerning is that massive Northeast ULL showing up near the end of the run, with a block out in the Atlantic ahead of it (on the 12z Euro). If that were to turn out less amplified and/or more progressive/further northeast than suggested, the Pacific pattern doesn't look too bad. Another historically cold air mass into the CONUS days 9-10 of that run. What an insane spring this has been (I know, disappointing for a lot of you severe lovers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Seasonal trends die hard. Also, I'm beginning to doubt moisture for the marginal mid-week opportunities in the SP, especially Wed. We may yet be two weeks out from the first real setup of interest. I'm tentatively planning a high plains chase in early June. Probably 6/8... flying into DIA and spending 5 or 6 days out there. Hopefully the pattern improves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I'm tentatively planning a high plains chase in early June. Probably 5/8... flying into DIA and spending 5 or 6 days out there. Hopefully the pattern improves! I wouldn't worry much... that play is much more reliable and less dependent on a great synoptic pattern. Even last year, which had a wretched overall June pattern, there were quite a few awesome supercells (a few tornadic) from the Front Range up through WY/MT during that timeframe. If cool structure and photo ops are what you're after, you won't be let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Another historically cold air mass into the CONUS days 9-10 of that run. What an insane spring this has been (I know, disappointing for a lot of you severe lovers). It's certainly disappointing after the early shutdown last year. Then again, it doesn't get a whole lot worse than the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 It continues to look like we won't see a somewhat more favorable pattern for decent action until around the 20th (And that might be at the earliest). It's gonna be interesting to watch chaser reaction when we make it to mid-month and things are still not looking good...Especially since many thought May would be the savior. Probably will wait until Ian is gone and then we'll have High Plains action followed by back to back high risks or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 It continues to look like we won't see a somewhat more favorable pattern for decent action until around the 20th (And that might be at the earliest). It's gonna be interesting to watch chaser reaction when we make it to mid-month and things are still not looking good...Especially since many thought May would be the savior. At some point it's going to get past the point of no return in terms of numbers. Then you just hope to salvage some decent events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 At some point it's going to get past the point of no return in terms of numbers. Then you just hope to salvage some decent events. I'm not so sure if we aren't there already, but it certainly isn't looking good for a lot of the predictions in the # of tornadoes department. Obviously counting the chickens before they hatch a bit here, but it looks like we could be on our way to another sub-1000 tornado year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 At some point it's going to get past the point of no return in terms of numbers. Then you just hope to salvage some decent events. If you put much stock in the current D10-14 progs, we're teetering on the brink. Let's be honest: if any pattern change is delayed until May 20 or later, the season has to be gangbusters thereafter to "make up" for the atrocity so far. And if we're still in this boat come Memorial Day, we're looking at an inevitability of a below-average chase year and a high likelihood that 2012-13 will edge out 2005-06 as the worst two-year stretch since the late 80s. If you go back far enough, there are examples where June was crazy enough to make the season all on its own (1995 especially), but the widespread drought makes me extremely skeptical of that possibility this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I'd say the most depressing thread on the board this year goes to... (And for understandable reasons) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I'd say the most depressing thread on the board this year goes to... (And for understandable reasons) It is borderline surreal. I've always thought that among the big three weenie phenomena (severe, winter, tropical), our is by far the most reliable to deliver on a year-to-year basis. The other two regularly get a year that more or less fails to show up at all for the U.S. region of interest, and occasionally multi-year stretches, but it's a real rarity for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Eh I don't know about surreal...the Dust Bowl was surreal, and besides the weird/potent cold shots and -AO spike this year (like this most recent one), it has essentially just been a sustained sub-par and boring pattern (where nothing has been able to come together quite right) for the typical chasing areas (and frankly almost everywhere for severe with a couple of blips here and there) since April 14th last year. Yes that was a lot of parentheses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I still see some subtle potential for Thurs and Fri next week... I agree the moisture may be the main limiting factor for Wed... nothing spectacular but still worth watching. Forcing may be an issue every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 All I know is a lot of chasers will likely be wasting a lot of money this year/not making a lot off of chasing tours and live streams ( ) and whatnot. I'd like to be wrong, don't get me incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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