Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

[HM]

 

The lead in is different but last yr there were worries the death ridge was locking in for good around this pt.. which wasn't totally unfounded for the season, but it didn't happen that fast. It's still way early for that in general. I'd lean toward it being more transient as depicted at current. Even there you still get some flow over the high plains etc. Just need a small vort or such many days if you have the moisture and shear.

 

There is enough variability in the longer rage on models to think there is room for some shift one way or another as well.

I agree with your thinking. I don't think that ridge "locks" for more than a week (generous). The GFS ensemble members were suggesting an overall agreement with the operational in terms of the 5/8-5/12 evolution. They, of course, offered several different outcomes beyond that period and might have even suggested additional SW troughing vs. the operational when averaged. The new GGEM looks more like the ECMWF evolution, 5/8-5/10, last night with a faster arrival too.

Now for some hype (just for fun to keep hope alive):

There are some parallels to 1957 and 1981 showing up but please keep in mind that they aren't the strongest analogs. After a lull around this time in those years, they substantially picked up mid-month with notable tornado outbreaks toward 5/22 (many other dates) in Oklahoma.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1957

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1981

We don't have reliable MJO data back in 1957 (or tornado reports) but 1981 looks very familiar:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198104.phase.90days.gif

Despite the matching Atlantic SSTA, ENSO was a bit cooler and the PDO was more positive than this year in 1981. Massive Alaskan-NW Canadian Blocking dropped the cold into the West to produce some prolific outbreaks that month. What happens this year won't play out like that but notice things really picked up in 1981 as the MJO crossed the IO into the Indonesian Sector (phase 3-4-5). I think I've seen 2004, 1992, 1951, 1954 and 1969 showing up too in the CPC analog data but I can't hype as much with those! Although, there were some notable periods in 04' and 92' ... you don't need me to tell you that!

[andyhb]

Haha, you heard my call, great stuff here, along with the MJO activity (that's a good looking progression right there showing up), I have noticed that several of these analogs did pick up in the second half of May into June, with 1957 being among the most blatant case with three potent systems, including an anomously strong one on 5/20-21 that lead to the Ruskin Heights tornado, among others.

5/22/81 was a big early chase day IIRC, with a wedge tornado near Binger, OK and the famous elephant trunk tornado near Cordell, OK.

2004 speaks for itself, from 5/22 to 5/30 of that year was very active, along with the event in Kansas on 5/12 that included the Attica tornado and the Harper F4 (which is a strong candidate for F5 status, IMO).

 

All of the 12z suite of operationals (and the GFS ensembles) suggest some sort of potential (over varying regions) in the 5/9 to 5/12 period.

[MidwestChaser]

Oh look, the 18z GFS has no real ridge. 

[Ian]

 

I agree with your thinking. I don't think that ridge "locks" for more than a week (generous). The GFS ensemble members were suggesting an overall agreement with the operational in terms of the 5/8-5/12 evolution. They, of course, offered several different outcomes beyond that period and might have even suggested additional SW troughing vs. the operational when averaged. The new GGEM looks more like the ECMWF evolution, 5/8-5/10, last night with a faster arrival too.

Now for some hype (just for fun to keep hope alive):

There are some parallels to 1957 and 1981 showing up but please keep in mind that they aren't the strongest analogs. After a lull around this time in those years, they substantially picked up mid-month with notable tornado outbreaks toward 5/22 (many other dates) in Oklahoma.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1957

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1981

We don't have reliable MJO data back in 1957 (or tornado reports) but 1981 looks very familiar:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198104.phase.90days.gif

Despite the matching Atlantic SSTA, ENSO was a bit cooler and the PDO was more positive than this year in 1981. Massive Alaskan-NW Canadian Blocking dropped the cold into the West to produce some prolific outbreaks that month. What happens this year won't play out like that but notice things really picked up in 1981 as the MJO crossed the IO into the Indonesian Sector (phase 3-4-5). I think I've seen 2004, 1992, 1951, 1954 and 1969 showing up too in the CPC analog data but I can't hype as much with those! Although, there were some notable periods in 04' and 92' ... you don't need me to tell you that!

 

A lot of the "analog" years I've seen tossed about the last few mo have had a number of violent tornado days on the later side of typical. Then again, some of the others are awful seasons.. guess I'll bank on the fact that I've seen more good years tossed out there than bad by at least 1 or 2.

 

I do think these things tend to balance out over time so that should mean we've got some activity ahead. But given the last 12 mo is as bad as it gets.. who knows, maybe tornadoes are a thing of the past. 

[andyhb]

A lot of the "analog" years I've seen tossed about the last few mo have had a number of violent tornado days on the later side of typical. Then again, some of the others are awful seasons.. guess I'll bank on the fact that I've seen more good years tossed out there than bad by at least 1 or 2.

 

I do think these things tend to balance out over time so that should mean we've got some activity ahead. But given the last 12 mo is as bad as it gets.. who knows, maybe tornadoes are a thing of the past. 

 

C'mon Ian, head up.

[MidwestChaser]

 

 

I do think these things tend to balance out over time so that should mean we've got some activity ahead. But given the last 12 mo is as bad as it gets.. who knows, maybe tornadoes are a thing of the past. 

 

Dude, give the "chicken little" routine a rest. 

[LocoAko]

I think Ian was joking? lol. 

[andyhb]

I think Ian was joking? lol. 

 

Yeah I was joking too, not sure about Midwest though.

[Ian]

I think Ian was joking? lol.

I've also been fairly positive considering. The swings are apparent throughout history but you gotta wonder about all the extremes everywhere of late. This is among the more tenuous weather phenomena so any shift in typical balance might be more noted. I think some of the climate change ideas show higher activity in cold season and lower in warm season too... Which is something we have seen in recent years. But we do seem statistically primed for a good run.

[brettjrob]

I've also been fairly positive considering. The swings are apparent throughout history but you gotta wonder about all the extremes everywhere of late. This is among the more tenuous weather phenomena so any shift in typical balance might be more noted. I think some of the climate change ideas show higher activity in cold season and lower in warm season too... Which is something we have seen in recent years. But we do seem statistically primed for a good run.

 

That, alongside the "alley shifting east" idea, are both of potential concern to chasers. Recent counterexamples to both aren't hard to find, though. Spring 2010 was very Plains-centric and favored the late season after a fairly tame March-April, while 5/24/11 was really late in the year for a major DFW-ICT outbreak.

 

As for analog discussion, any ties to 2004 can only mean good things, as its 5/12-6/12 period was simply fantastic to chasers. I'm sure we'd all be satisfied to emulate 2004 for even half of that period, pattern-wise. Late-season 1992 looks pretty nice on SeverePlot, too.

[MidwestChaser]

Yeah I was joking too, not sure about Midwest though.

 

[Ian]

That, alongside the "alley shifting east" idea, are both of potential concern to chasers. Recent counterexamples to both aren't hard to find, though. Spring 2010 was very Plains-centric and favored the late season after a fairly tame March-April, while 5/24/11 was really late in the year for a major DFW-ICT outbreak.

 

As for analog discussion, any ties to 2004 can only mean good things, as its 5/12-6/12 period was simply fantastic to chasers. I'm sure we'd all be satisfied to emulate 2004 for even half of that period, pattern-wise. Late-season 1992 looks pretty nice on SeverePlot, too.

Wonder if some of the shift talk is recency bias. Though at least a little of it would go hand in hand with a shift toward more activity in the winter etc.  I think certainly some years of late have had an eastward lean but there have also been plenty of "great" outbreaks in the Plains. Just been a rough stretch of late. 

 

There may be something to shifts on the edges which might go back to where have TX PH seasons gone and such. It does seem dryness long term has been spreading east which would tend to shift things on the western edge at least. 

 

If this season ended up half as good as 2004 in the same time frame I'd be beside myself lol.

 

One thing for sure.. it's going to be busy out there if it picks up with so little happening and school getting out.

[MidwestChaser]

Ian, is this your first Plains trip?

[Ian]

Ian, is this your first Plains trip?

No, third. Will be the longest tho. 3w v 2w.

[JoMo]

It doesn't tornado much where Ian goes.

[Ian]

It doesn't tornado much where Ian goes.

We got one of the days/storms of the year last year. We have a habit of not great patterns tho plenty of good days last yr.

[nwburbschaser]

Seems like a bunch of us will be out there from about the 17th on which might be good timing. I have more confidence going into this year then the second half of May last year.

[brettjrob]

It doesn't tornado much where Ian goes.

 

They're due to break that streak, I'd say. Might be the strongest positive argument we can come up with right now.

[andyhb]

I was planning on potentially coming out if something looks to be setting up there, we'll have to see.

[Stebo]

It doesn't tornado much where Ian goes.

 

So what you are saying is that the GLOV is looking golden for some severe weather during that 3 week period?

[wxmeddler]

It doesn't tornado much where Ian goes.

 

I'm the new mojo.. it will all balance out.

 

I was planning on potentially coming out if something looks to be setting up there, we'll have to see.

We need a AmWX SevereWx get together, meet up after a big chase day and have dinner make all the "ice p*ssies" jelly.

[Ian]

So what you are saying is that the GLOV is looking golden for some severe weather during that 3 week period?

We did miss a 10% local outbreak day in our backyards last yr.

[nwburbschaser]

I was planning on potentially coming out if something looks to be setting up there, we'll have to see.

Have you been out to the Plains before?

[Ian]

 

I'm the new mojo.. it will all balance out.

 

 

we did really well last yr considering--had as many tornado days as many locals. 2011 was just plain horrible since there were almost no storms--tho we did find the few that were out there. some day i won't even mention i chased that year.

[andyhb]

Have you been out to the Plains before?

 

Plains? No.

 

But I have chased in the Prairies in Canada (which might as well be similar minus the dryline everyday and chaser convergence).

[brettjrob]

I was planning on potentially coming out if something looks to be setting up there, we'll have to see.

 

You should, and I hope you score big if so. You deserve it after all these seasons watching model runs late into the night and never getting to see the results in-person.

[brettjrob]

Well, tonight's GFS actually makes 5/9 look interesting enough to keep an eye on for the southern High Plains. Deep layer shear appears the limiting factor right now.

[Thundersnow12]

Well, tonight's GFS actually makes 5/9 look interesting enough to keep an eye on for the southern High Plains. Deep layer shear appears the limiting factor right now.

 

Little faster this run as 5/10 looked pretty good on the 12z run.

[MnWeatherman]

Haven't had a single chase setup for MN,ND,SD,NE or IA, yet- very unusual. 18" of snow fell in SE MN yesterday, which is the new state record for May. 

[andyhb]

You should, and I hope you score big if so. You deserve it after all these seasons watching model runs late into the night and never getting to see the results in-person.

 

Thanks for the encouragement.

 

I do enjoy nowcasting here and on the other weather forums that I take part in, radar presentations of the big ones are pretty incredible to watch, but I'll certainly admit that I'd like to see the real deal.