David Reimer Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I blame Timmer if the season sucks. What's he going to do with his 130k if there are no tornadoes? Haha that is an excellent point. Maybe he'll turn it into a documentary about storm chaser drama. There's plenty of that year-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I blame Timmer if the season sucks. What's he going to do with his 130k if there are no tornadoes? They'll do what they did last year. Last year there were probably only 3 or so episodes of tornado content and the rest was filler content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Man the GFS and Euro are what severe weather enthusiasts have for nightmares this time of year. I don't think you could have a worse pattern this time of year than what is being shown. The hits just keep on coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Watching the ens means at the end of the run the last few days the good news might still be the pattern wants to shift a bit after the cutoff. It's not great but it might be better at least. Or it could be totally wrong given its like 15 days off. Might still be some surprises too who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Watching the ens means at the end of the run the last few days the good news might still be the pattern wants to shift a bit after the cutoff. It's not great but it might be better at least. Or it could be totally wrong given its like 15 days off. Might still be some surprises too who knows. Yeah I'm optimistic things change somewhat maybe around May 8th-10th and the ens means have hinted it as well as the end of the GFS op runs even though not much point in looking that far out. Who knows, leaving May 10th could end up working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I'd love to share in any form of optimism, but every GFS image I look at today, operational or ensemble, shows eastern troughing (or even a cut-off) a major factor for the next 15 days. Personally, I'm still waiting on the very first glimmer of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 I'd love to share in any form of optimism, but every GFS image I look at today, operational or ensemble, shows eastern troughing (or even a cut-off) a major factor for the next 15 days. Personally, I'm still waiting on the very first glimmer of hope. You're biased by wanting something good. I'm just looking for more than 5kts wind shear and 50F+ dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 New NAM doesn't look terrible after dark in SE Oklahoma. That probably doesn't mean much for the chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 since our long range guru became the latest to throw 2009 out there as an analog this summer i pulled the "stats" for our chase period. :-/ and 2004 for fun. (rough mock-ups based off something else im working on--maps have time constraints -- basically daytime plus a little after sunset). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Good lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 early may is going to be horrid any way you cut it based on the gfs/euro.. but still think there are signs the pattern shifts after. looking back on older events as long as you can get the EC trough up into like New England you can still get some good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Looks like an earthquake in the middle of the country with the cut-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Luckily, my trip isn't until the 10th-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Fortunately we're in May and moisture return should be easier to re-establish, but the Gulf is going to get absolutely cleaned out by that Eastern trough/ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 Fortunately we're in May and moisture return should be easier to re-establish, but the Gulf is going to get absolutely cleaned out by that Eastern trough/ULL. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=04&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=18&fhour=360¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=04&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=18&fhour=360¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Yes, it should return much faster this time of year, that is still an ugly looking ball of wax for the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Yes, it should return much faster this time of year, that is still an ugly looking ball of wax for the next 10 days or so. Yeah, which is why I'm happy my trip is when it is. Long range GFS (yes I know) still shows troughs moving in after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 4/27/2011 probably beat this entire month by a factor of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 4/27/2011 probably beat this entire month by a factor of 10. More tornado reports than 2013 year to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Models look more muddled again in long range. How's 2014 looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Actually, the foreign guidance is suggesting a potentially decent looking pattern with a large western trough setting up in the Pacific NW once the closed low lifts out of the central CONUS. The GFS remains on the "chaser conundrum" side (with the western troughing less aggressive), but to be frank I'd rather have the non-truncated guidance at least somewhat on board. (Grasping at straws? Probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 12z Euro wants to kick out the closed low quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Models look more muddled again in long range. How's 2014 looking? Hr. 384 is 5 days away from our departure day... Get a grip man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Hr. 384 is 5 days away from our departure day... Get a grip man! This is just typical pre-chasecation Ian. He'll recover by the time we're ready to hit the road 3 weeks! I like what I'm seeing with the MJO progression heading into mid-May... if we can get some good MJO influence it could certainly help change up this weak tornado season we've seen so far. Lots of the other signals going fairly neutral in the medium/long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Euro ens mean lost any idea of new troughing pushing into the west at the end of the run. Now it just builds a ridge across the central US. Wooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Euro ens mean lost any idea of new troughing pushing into the west at the end of the run. Now it just builds a ridge across the central US. Wooo. It'll be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Eastern Iowa, South of I-80 could be a sleeper play tomorrow along the warm front, High bust potential here, but that's what it's all about in this business. Strong cap in place, but if they can warm up nicely there is a slight chance the cap could go with some surface based storms...Instability is probably a tad overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 Hr. 384 is 5 days away from our departure day... Get a grip man! Watch as all the action this year happens the five days before your chase vacation starts. Ultimate irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Watch as all the action this year happens the five days before your chase vacation starts. Ultimate irony. That happened for me in 2011. Came home on a Sunday, Monday was an Outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 That happened for me in 2011. Came home on a Sunday, Monday was an Outbreak. May 24th was a Tuesday, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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