andyhb Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 I think he means the "Probability of 2 or more tornadoes" part of the watch probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Some radar images of the Silverton, TX Tornado are saved in the radar thread for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Hopefully the models continue to show the setup for next weekend. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX422 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLYFLOW RETURNS. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WSW FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. AT THESURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELOLINE OR A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER MIDLEVEL CAP WILL PROBABLY BE TO STRONG. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRYFOR NOW. AGAIN...VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TOUPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CLASSIC SPRING PATTERN SETTING UP FOR APOSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.THERE MAY EVEN BE TWO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENTS. THE MAINFEATURES WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST OVERTHE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG DRYLINE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE60S AHEAD OF IT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLEON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...BUT THE SMALLER DETAILS STILL HAVE TOBE WORKED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITYAND 0-6KM SHEAR YIELDS SUPPERCELLS ANYWHERE FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS.FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE DRYLINE AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERNHALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY/CLOSER TO THEGFS SOLUTION/...ONLY GOING SLGT CHC POPS. IF THE ECMWF ISCORRECT...EVERYTHING SETS UP FURTHER WEST AND ALL OF WEST CENTRALTEXAS HAS A SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT. STAYTUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Pretty excited for Tuesday...could be first good outbreak and it's not even May 1st yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Also looks like a major late season winter storm in CO, WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 In the glass 13/32nds full department, although the current storm is suffering from anemic moisture return, GFS depiction of the front with this storm shows no intrusion of dewpoints below 50ºF into the Gulf, and suggests moisture will be returning. Bad news, no big trough looks like it could take advantage in the next 8 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Quick look Euro middle of next week has possibilities... Nice LLJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 ^^. ECMWF and GFS depict another repeat performance complete with a strong anafront surging south through the plains and a neutral tilt (albeit not as deep) trough slowly ejecting into the plains. Another classic spring event on tap. Winter doesn't want to end across the northern and central/high plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 ^^. ECMWF and GFS depict another repeat performance complete with a strong anafront surging south through the plains and a neutral tilt (albeit not as deep) trough slowly ejecting into the plains. Another classic spring event on tap. Winter doesn't want to end across the northern and central/high plains. Boy, the ECMWF has looked convincingly impressive for the severe weather aspect on Tuesday for OK/TX. Much more robust moisture return than progged at this range last time, and initiation indicated on several models near the triple point. Fool me once, shame on you, yadda yadda... but I'll be (not so) secretly keeping a close eye on this. Thought it was amusing to see SPC go "POTENTIAL TOO LOW" this morning despite decent model consensus. They won't get fooled again, but I probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 ^^. ECMWF and GFS depict another repeat performance complete with a strong anafront surging south through the plains and a neutral tilt (albeit not as deep) trough slowly ejecting into the plains. Another classic spring event on tap. Winter doesn't want to end across the northern and central/high plains. Yep...and I notice you're having a nice winter in Alaska too. Marquette, MI still has 33" of snow on the ground; the previous record depth for today's date was 28". They have set a snow depth record every day since April 4...and this should continue for the next 7+ days, with 4-8" of snow expected tomorrow. They are also getting close to the latest first 50+ degree reading of the season on record...I think that record may fall in 10 days or so. Quite interesting, especially after the incredible warmth last March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Boy, the ECMWF has looked convincingly impressive for the severe weather aspect on Tuesday for OK/TX. That 12z Euro was all kinds of nasty on Wednesday, I'll just leave it at that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 That 12z Euro was all kinds of nasty on Wednesday, I'll just leave it at that for now. Sure is. I'd stopped bothering to check Wundermap past 144 because it hasn't worked for so long, but now it does. While it looks quite impressive taken literally, the surge of arctic air makes me highly skeptical after what just happened on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 That 12z Euro was all kinds of nasty on Wednesday, I'll just leave it at that for now. Sure is. I'd stopped bothering to check Wundermap past 144 because it hasn't worked for so long, but now it does. While it looks quite impressive taken literally, the surge of arctic air makes me highly skeptical after what just happened on Tuesday. Agreed. The 12z ECMWF verbatim would be impressive along the dryline and ahead of the cold front, but another surging cold front makes one leery after what happened with this last event. 00z GFS is decidedly positive tilt with a strong frontal surge ahead of the upper trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Yep...and I notice you're having a nice winter in Alaska too. Marquette, MI still has 33" of snow on the ground; the previous record depth for today's date was 28". They have set a snow depth record every day since April 4...and this should continue for the next 7+ days, with 4-8" of snow expected tomorrow. They are also getting close to the latest first 50+ degree reading of the season on record...I think that record may fall in 10 days or so. Quite interesting, especially after the incredible warmth last March! We have amazingly, after such an awful start to winter, managed to end the year well above average for snowfall...most of it coming in some impressive late season dumps. Quite honestly I am sick of snow and winter. A rare thing for me, but after an extended warm spring like period, all this snow and record cold has been less than pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 00z Euro has a huge long wave trough in the West at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 D5 and 6 out from SPC: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013 VALID 151200Z - 201200Z CORRECTED FOR SEVERE THREAT DAYS 5 AND 6 ...DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE WRN U.S. ONE SIGNIFICANT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A SFC FRONT INTO OK MONDAY AND DEEP CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OF POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE CONTINUED MOISTENING THAT SHOULD LEAD TO MORE ROBUST ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR A DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION WITHIN BROAD STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SUPPORTS AN EWD SHIFT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF MO INTO NERN TX. ..DARROW.. 04/12/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 This is just ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 ^ No contest, the most depressing first half of met spring in recent memory around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 We have amazingly, after such an awful start to winter, managed to end the year well above average for snowfall...most of it coming in some impressive late season dumps. Quite honestly I am sick of snow and winter. A rare thing for me, but after an extended warm spring like period, all this snow and record cold has been less than pleasant. I feel ya...after having 149.6 lst season in Cold Bay before transferring to Texas...I'm good on the snow biz for a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 It'll be nice when the GFS decides to catch up to the euro again...so we can start looking at the event in more detail. The 18z GFS continues to be a "runaway train" with the cold frontal surge...having the front into my northwestern CWA and basically into the I-20 corridor by 18z Tuesday. Seeing that the euro has outperformed the GFS in several systems this year in the southern plains...will go with the euro for what to expect. The bad thing is the euro soundings have low resolution on AWIPS. Just another waiting game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 It'll be nice when the GFS decides to catch up to the euro again...so we can start looking at the event in more detail. The 18z GFS continues to be a "runaway train" with the cold frontal surge...having the front into my northwestern CWA and basically into the I-20 corridor by 18z Tuesday. Seeing that the euro has outperformed the GFS in several systems this year in the southern plains...will go with the euro for what to expect. The bad thing is the euro soundings have low resolution on AWIPS. Just another waiting game... The ECMWF scares me in a different way, though, with its much slower progression. Tuesday is on the verge of cap busting due to a lack of forcing/height falls. If we don't get any warm sector storms Tuesday, I can totally see this playing out almost identically to Monday-Tuesday of this week. Day 1 cap bust, day 2 surging CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 The ECMWF scares me in a different way, though, with its much slower progression. Tuesday is on the verge of cap busting due to a lack of forcing/height falls. If we don't get any warm sector storms Tuesday, I can totally see this playing out almost identically to Monday-Tuesday of this week. Day 1 cap bust, day 2 surging CF. Until I see something to suggest otherwise, that is exactly what I think next week's event will do. I'm surprised SPC would go from "Potential too low" to a Day 5 and Day 6 designation in one outlook. I think they jumped the gun on this one IMO, especially with the underperformance of this week's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 ^ No contest, the most depressing first half of met spring in recent memory around here. Once the cold shots become less overpowering like this anafront for the last event though, May and June could use the cold air access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 The ECMWF scares me in a different way, though, with its much slower progression. Tuesday is on the verge of cap busting due to a lack of forcing/height falls. If we don't get any warm sector storms Tuesday, I can totally see this playing out almost identically to Monday-Tuesday of this week. Day 1 cap bust, day 2 surging CF. Personally, I think that's what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Can't help but lol at this...then again, we are just beginning to reach the start of the usual Plains season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Well...the 00z GFS trended towards the euro...but it's only one run. Even so...I couldn't resist...and loaded some soundings. Wichita Falls showed the same as Dyess AFB in Abilene...so I didn't post those. Forth Worth...and McAlster in southeastern Oklahoma did show similar values as the Tuesday soundings at Dyess...with more inhibition...around 200 j/kg. It shows potential for me...and a large part of Texas/SE Oklahoma both Tuesday and Wednesday...which is exactly why it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 So a year ago this weekend, the last (and only) widespread, synpotically-evident severe weather event of the season had already come and gone for the southern Plains. Unless next week's system works some magic, I'm hard-pressed to see anything terribly interesting before the end of the month, at the earliest. I won't lie; I'm quite concerned about the possibility of continued unseasonable frontal intrusions going into May. At least a couple skilled seasonal forecasters have mentioned this and drawn comparisons to 2002, a wretched year for most of the Plains. At the same time, I've learned the hard way that forecasting a chase season (if that's what you're interested in) is nearly futile, even in mid-April. Many people were gravely concerned about 2004 and 2010 at this point, only for mid-May onward to propel them into "best of the decade" territory. Conversely, driving home on 4/14 last year, most of us thought we'd go into the "heart of the season" already sitting on a "bonus" outbreak day... EDIT: Just saw a veteran TX-based chaser mention that as of tomorrow, this is the first time he's gone a full year without a tornado since 1996. Obviously there were some tornadoes to be had in mid-late season 2012 if you had the funds and time to roam, but that still says something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Looking like a pretty impressive setup on the 18z GFS on Wednesday. The trough remains much more neutrally tilted with focused sfc cyclogenesis along the KS/OK border, and a 40-50 LLJ to east of the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 http://twitpic.com/cj5qiu http://twitpic.com/cj5qid Accumlated hail on I-5 in downtown SEA in Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 http://twitpic.com/cj5qiu http://twitpic.com/cj5qid Accumlated hail on I-5 in downtown SEA in Washington http://twitpic.com/cj5qiu http://twitpic.com/cj5qid Accumlated hail on I-5 in downtown SEA in Washington That's pretty amazing. I imagine Seattle doesn't get hail too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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