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Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

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Wonder if the BL is torching like yesterday with the light precip? Otherwise, it would be a very festive 24 hour period with light snows (even if it doesn't amount to much of anything)

Ray gets his CF.

Boundary layer will not torch away from east winds. You are fine as long as you are on the other side of the CF. Of course, this is all depending on how much precip falls. Euro is still meh, but the setup is one to give a little light snow or even FZDZ, if the saturated layer is warmer than like -8C.

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it actually brings up a good question, humor aside. this hasn't been a NE plague - it's been a U.S. one. in fact, the 30 year trend all over the planet is sloped upward for that matter. since the 30-year is what it is, it does force one to wonder if the shear odds of having an above normal month is greater now than a below normal month, in general.

I dont think its news saying the planet has warmed over the past 30 years, lol.

And stats would show that there is like a 3:1 odds on having an above month vs a below month....just based on the number of above months compared to below months in the past several years.

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yeah, i'm actually with you on that ... from about Feb 15th onward, i really start going, 'huh', on that date, and end up around Apr 15 going, 'f this!'

But the majority voice here don't really get their heads around warm climo weather types/events so i'm just speaking to both the consensus, but also, the general unrelenting theme of above normal weather.

it actually brings up a good question, humor aside. this hasn't been a NE plague - it's been a U.S. one. in fact, the 30 year trend all over the planet is sloped upward for that matter. since the 30-year is what it is, it does force one to wonder if the shear odds of having an above normal month is greater now than a below normal month, in general.

Well you also go on borderline lunacy tirades online about Valentines Day and lord knows how many people you've injured on those drunken tirades when you black out and stall the good folks that work at Whitmans Samplers

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The Euro is more believable considering the GFS magically destroyed the vortex in like 24 hours after truncation. The Euro isn't bad though because its in the process of retrograding the vortex which is obviously a good thing.

Yeah, there's actually decent agreement up until truncation. The Euro begins to disturb the GOA low around day 7 just as the GFS does, but as I mentioned earlier, the GFS quickly accelerates this process after truncation. The Euro mostly recollects the vortex.

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Each plunge is deeper (yeah that's what she said....) and each "warmup" is shorter as we go out in time on today's op euro run.

LMAO classic Jerry this year. asked Tip yesterday , does a muted swan make any sound? As far as PF and his love affair with KBVT AFDs, they have been having some issues this year especially with the up slope and cold .

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One thing that we see in the N PAC this year that was very absent last year svae for a few fleeting periods is the high anomalies north of the Bering Sea and AK...if you look at the maps Sam posted...even in the Euro maps when the vortex is getting close to AK as it retrogrades, look to the north of it and follow the height lines coming over from Siberia into NW Canada....we still have cross-polar flow north of the cut-off vortex where all those reds and oranges are....last December, those were all dark blues and purples up there completely choking off the Siberian high cold air source and just torching both us and Canada.

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LMAO classic Jerry this year. asked Tip yesterday , does a muted swan make any sound? As far as PF and his love affair with KBVT AFDs, they have been having some issues this year especially with the up slope and cold .

:huh: I know I am in love with them, but BTV has done great so far this season as far as I'm concerned.

Light snow falling with a fresh dusting on the cars so far. Very fine flakes.

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Agree.

Yeah there was that one short wave on Monday AM that held on longer than modeled and left some snow, but it wasnt an upslope event cause it snowed in BTV too.

They wrote about next weeks warm and now all the sudden they haven't done that well so don't trust the warmth forecast. They even apologized in the AFD that it may not be the news folks want to hear haha.

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Well there's no QPF at all on my maps, but my lowest increment is 0.05". Mabe there's a couple tenths in there for the entire weekend, but it's nothing like the NAM is spitting out. All of the runs including the op have been very dry.

My thinking is some places might be able to nuzzle an inch this weekend then some zr
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I dont think its news saying the planet has warmed over the past 30 years, lol.

And stats would show that there is like a 3:1 odds on having an above month vs a below month....just based on the number of above months compared to below months in the past several years.

of course it isn't news ... that wasn't the point. the point was that other stuff you said lol

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The Euro is more believable considering the GFS magically destroyed the vortex in like 24 hours after truncation. The Euro isn't bad though because its in the process of retrograding the vortex which is obviously a good thing.

Yeah I've noticed the GFS does this... if there is an emerging scenario, it caves into it all at once when cross that temporal boundary out in time.

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The ensembles were colder over all for the country days 6-15, though not really applying to new england verbatim. From a pattern standpoint it definitely is sharper with the initial cold front middle next week and I'd say better looking over all than prior runs..I didn't notice much retrogression on the mean with regards to the GOA trough. The reflection of it is weaker for a few days around the 8th to 12th which probably means more spread amongst the members, and then it anchors itself pretty well again on the mean near the alaskan coast at the end.

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The ensembles were colder over all for the country days 6-15, though not really applying to new england verbatim. From a pattern standpoint it definitely is sharper with the initial cold front middle next week and I'd say better looking over all than prior runs..I didn't notice much retrogression on the mean with regards to the GOA trough. The reflection of it is weaker for a few days around the 8th to 12th which probably means more spread amongst the members, and then it anchors itself pretty well again on the mean near the alaskan coast at the end.

It tries to pop a wave on the front late next week as well, although pretty far out at sea. Probably thanks to that transient PNA spike and now -NAO too. Although the GEFS looked better than the EC..it slowly does try to retro the ridge west north of Kamchatka. I'm still gonna role with the 10th or after before anything worthy of a change here, but as stated...maybe we can sneak something in beforehand.

Weenies should hold off (although they won't do this) any exuberance until a couple of days go by and ensembles continue the improvements.

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