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Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

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The models were definitely a bit too warm in the low levels...but we thought they might be yesterday. They were fairly decent on QPF though. The lower sfc temps have allowed for probably a bit further east coverage on the minor accumulations.

I don't think overall the models busted bad or anything. It was a classic setup where you take a few degrees off their projected sfc temps...which is what we often do anyway when there is a strong sfc high in N Maine or that vicinity.

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The models were definitely a bit too warm in the low levels...but we thought they might be yesterday. They were fairly decent on QPF though. The lower sfc temps have allowed for probably a bit further east coverage on the minor accumulations.

I don't think overall the models busted bad or anything. It was a classic setup where you take a few degrees off their projected sfc temps...which is what we often do anyway when their a strong sfc high in N Maine or that vicinity.

I think their biggest issue was the ageo flow with north winds. NAM had NE-E winds which ususally it has a good handle on. I ignore the GFS for that, but usually the NAM is good with that. I figured it was too warm, but with the winds NE-E..I thought maybe it would be a CF closer to 128 or something by this morning if you believed it...and I also took into account it would be too far west with that. Didn't think it would be down by Cohasset. When I saw the HRRR and RPM last evening, I started thinking we could do better here.

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Are there any other Nov when we had 3 accumulating snowfalls in November? Will would probably know this

Yeah 2002 did...though this one doesn't qualify since I don't think there was measurable yesterday....unless you squeezed out a tenth. But aside from that,. there was 2002, 1995, 1989, and 1985 in the past 30 years.

2002 actually had 4 measurable events in ORH....0.2" on 11/3, 0.6" on 11/18, 6.0" on 11/27, and 1.5" on 11/29.

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Yeah 2002 did...though this one doesn't qualify since I don't think there was measurable yesterday....unless you squeezed out a tenth. But aside from that,. there was 2002, 1995, 1989, and 1985 in the past 30 years.

2002 actually had 4 measurable events in ORH....0.2" on 11/3, 0.6" on 11/18, 6.0" on 11/27, and 1.5" on 11/29.

2002 actually had 0.5" on 11/16, but it was the same event....it started as snow, then turned to ice and then as the low was exiting, it turned back to snow for that 0.6" on the 18th. So still 4 events...I thought it was 5 for a sec when I saw that 0.5" on the 16th. But same system...the big ice storm in the interior that got CT especially hard.

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Yeah 2002 did...though this one doesn't qualify since I don't think there was measurable yesterday....unless you squeezed out a tenth. But aside from that,. there was 2002, 1995, 1989, and 1985 in the past 30 years.

2002 actually had 4 measurable events in ORH....0.2" on 11/3, 0.6" on 11/18, 6.0" on 11/27, and 1.5" on 11/29.

We had a solid dusting last evening but not sure it was enough to qualify. I've always firmly believed Nov sets the table for the ensuing winter. I certainly hope that holds this year
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Okay---I figured the temp would cooperate for a while, but I wasn't confident that the precip would be hanging around. I guess that's what the WWA is for. Being in the far NW Zone, I allow my assessment of advisories, etc.to be influenced by what Albany does to my neighboring zones in Berkshire and Windham (VT) counties. With neither of them having anything posted, I tend to underestimate the impact.

Taking a peek at the Bufkit soundings for ALB, the NAM wants to continue low level lift well into the evening. While temps are forecast to rise above freezing at ALB, I'm sure you will take quite a bit longer than the valley to scour out the cold.

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