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Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

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Well the EC ensembles also try to build back the Aleutian ridge too. The GEFS and Canadian are more bullish with a ridge just around the west coast, so it is also possible the EC tries to adjust the -PNA it has. It may be already doing so based on the past 24 hours. Euro can be -PNA happy. I've tried looking for any bad signs like a big Bering Sea vortex and for now, I don't really see it.

DT mentioned something yesterday (I think) about things setting up for a dump of Siberian air later this month...

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You sticking to that?

Seems to be a lot of support for a locked in bit of colder temps and storminess. -NAO

I don't really time storms or anything like that, like what HM does. I think most of us thought that date as the time in which the pattern may shift around. Of course when we said this like 9 days ago...it was give or take a day. It was possible it got pushed back too.

I think that date is when the cold will start to enter the CONUS and things will improve from the blast furnace it will receive over the next week. As far as we are concerned, it's not supposed to mean snow and cold arrive with a vengeance...it means the beginning of a possible change in the pattern towards something more wintry. Now if you believe the EC ensembles, we still run the risk of storms perhaps not being 100% cold and snow, but it's a much better pattern for this area, compared to now. People shouldn't hold that date as the beginning of 2' of snow OTG...it's the date where we potentially will have a better pattern for winter. This is an important thing to remember. So far, it looks decent for us. What I want to see going forward is what Phil mentioned...lets just make sure models start to keep this going forward.

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this little event really did overperform quite nicely. good to have the cold tuck come S and then release to the E as opposed to the NE. makes a big difference with the advection of warmer air coming in aloft.

Indeed. Went into soccer this AM at 7 and when I got out at 8 there was a 1/4". Was not expecting that at all. 'Bout the same at home. Snowing quite nicely right now. Just a steady -sn. Accum on grass, deks, etc but not roads.

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Been a while since we've gotten our tree with weenie flakes falling......pretty sweet....the last year I remember at least snow on the ground getting the tree was 2008? I think.....I have this sweet picture of my daughter when she was 1.5 loving running (well as best she could run) in and out of all the trees with snow on them.....yeah we'll be decorating outside and in today.....good times

Seems to have let up a bit outside........Merry Christmas everyone

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Good Morning, All!

Long time lurker here (back to Eastern days). I thought I should at least say Hello after reading the forums for all these years. What better time to start than the first day of met winter?

I really enjoy all of the great info from everyone, and particularly the sense of humor that helps to make the SNE forums as good as they are.

Some nice light snow falling here in Dracut, MA. I hope everyone has a great weekend, and I hope we all get buried this winter!

P.S. Is it weatherfella's birthday today? If so, Happy Birthday!

-Marc

Thank you and welcome! Yes I've survived another year and am gifted with snow on my birthday.

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Thanks, Scott. I really don't mean to imply I am pinning you down for massive blizzards and -10 temps. Like you said, getting out of a pattern where we get furnaced with intermitent cold shots and into a more reasonable regime.

I enjoy reading what you, Phil, Ryan, Tip, Will, etc post about patterns

Oh I know..lol. Don't worry. Lets just hope models still sort of like that date...give or take. Maybe it's a little before or after.

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Good Morning, All!

Long time lurker here (back to Eastern days). I thought I should at least say Hello after reading the forums for all these years. What better time to start than the first day of met winter?

I really enjoy all of the great info from everyone, and particularly the sense of humor that helps to make the SNE forums as good as they are.

Some nice light snow falling here in Dracut, MA. I hope everyone has a great weekend, and I hope we all get buried this winter!

P.S. Is it weatherfella's birthday today? If so, Happy Birthday!

-Marc

Welcome, Marc--good to have you posting.

Radars clear over me but we're seeing the heaviest largest snow flakes of the morning so far.

I'm covered by ENX which is showing pretty putrid echos. Reality, is decent rate of goose feathers. 1"+ down, warming up to 22.5/20

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