Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 i don't think it will be quite that warm over the northeast. the CFS bounces around. it was more just funny to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Zoom in and notice the cold pool over Mt Tolland compared to surrounding areas. CFS is taking into account the local climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Jim Cantore @JimCantore North American temperature ensemble anomalies for early December. With the exception of AK it looks warm for the USA: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20121126.NAsfcT.gif … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I just had a flashback to late last November. That map is pretty hideous. If I see a deep, persistent vortex start to appear near the GOA.... Not long ago the consensus seemed to be a pattern change in the first part of December to cold, relaxing towards Xmas, reloading in January. The pattern creep seems to be occurring. Hoping for the best such a shame to waste what was a cold November with a warm early December. I don't mind if the better pattern is pushed back provided it actually gets here. I'd rather have a more favorable pattern for mid Dec and Christmas than early December and then torch around Xmas. Though we will have to be patient until the PAC decides what it wants to do. The MJO wave that was progged weakened a lot so nothing is really a dominating force on the N PAC orientation right now. At least it looks nothing like last year when we had a death vortex spinning over AK/Bering Sea. Historical precedent says that we will get it eventually when we have the big + anomalies up in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't mind if the better pattern is pushed back provided it actually gets here. I'd rather have a more favorable pattern for mid Dec and Christmas than early December and then torch around Xmas. Though we will have to be patient until the PAC decides what it wants to do. The MJO wave that was progged weakened a lot so nothing is really a dominating force on the N PAC orientation right now. At least it looks nothing like last year when we had a death vortex spinning over AK/Bering Sea. Historical precedent says that we will get it eventually when we have the big + anomalies up in that region. yep. same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Is the CFS run off of GFS scheme or parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 we're kind of in a holding pattern for the time being...at least with respect to the tropical pacific initiating a change to the pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Is the CFS run off of GFS scheme or parameters? it's run off the KURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't mind if the better pattern is pushed back provided it actually gets here. I'd rather have a more favorable pattern for mid Dec and Christmas than early December and then torch around Xmas. Though we will have to be patient until the PAC decides what it wants to do. The MJO wave that was progged weakened a lot so nothing is really a dominating force on the N PAC orientation right now. At least it looks nothing like last year when we had a death vortex spinning over AK/Bering Sea. Historical precedent says that we will get it eventually when we have the big + anomalies up in that region. Certainly for me early December cold is useless anyway. I'd much rather have a cold 2nd 1/2 of the month into real winter. My take on this is, if the consensus now has the change around the 10th I'll wait for it in the 15-20th period. It always seems to come in later than expected or there's an initial pulse that fails to really set the pattern before pulse two establishes it. Although the snow in Nov was nice for many it doesn't stick around, ski resorts are making tons of snow but once again snow mobile places are left holding the bag and there's no holiday mood yet. Really hope the 5-10 days before Xmas get it going. The one thing I will remember about Fall 2012 is the homogenous nature of temps. It just goes day after day with a set temp. For many days it was 42-45 here day and night. The last few days 36-38.5 has been the range day and night. Daytime highs are well below normal but nighttime lows are pretty average I think. Weird weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 with a paltry .07 of QPF yesterday, looks like BDL sets the record for driest November with .34 MTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 with a paltry .07 of QPF yesterday, looks like BDL sets the record for driest November with .34 MTD The ASOS stopped reporting precip at 21Z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't mind if the better pattern is pushed back provided it actually gets here. I'd rather have a more favorable pattern for mid Dec and Christmas than early December and then torch around Xmas. Though we will have to be patient until the PAC decides what it wants to do. The MJO wave that was progged weakened a lot so nothing is really a dominating force on the N PAC orientation right now. At least it looks nothing like last year when we had a death vortex spinning over AK/Bering Sea. Historical precedent says that we will get it eventually when we have the big + anomalies up in that region. Interesting octant behavior, similar to mid-October when we also had "equatorial Rossby Waves" advancing westward across the western Tropical Pacific (nice typhoon response). The Pacific is noisy with stagnant convective regions mainly running the show and a stronger than normal East Asian Jet. This persistent feature and stagnant IO convection has basically produced a pretty stationary North Pacific / East Asian circulation for the last month or so. Assuming a low amplitude MJO pulse, forward speed may be somewhat increased into the "La Niña Regions" and strengthen the already persistent W PAC features I just talked about. If you heighten an already heightened state, I would assume the North Pacific Omega Setup will grow stronger, especially as it begins to couple with the stratosphere. The West Coast is already seeing the repercussions of this pattern and it will likely continue for the foreseeable future. At some point, this will lead to an Arctic Air Pipeline and a possible classic La Niña-like pattern. This may be the route to go for mid-late December after the early December Torch. Makes you wonder about some of those stratospheric analogs (since 1979) I threw around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The ASOS stopped reporting precip at 21Z though. still likely to be safe-there wasn't much precip up that way and it was over by 6-7pm anyway...let us know what you hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Yeah I think it's important to stress that this is nothing like last year. Of course weenies don't care what we say if there is no snow in their backyard, but that's an important point to make. You know what will happen...as soon as Kevin melts down and torontoblizzard jumps off the CN Tower...the ensembles will improve dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 it's run off the KURO Sprinkles / flurries yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 So it does seem like a little light snow changing to freezing drizzle this weekend, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The changes in the long range 6z GFS are a little interesting. This is the first run I've seen that nearly completely breaks down / displaces the GOA low, and develops lower heights over the Aleutians. This change is seen in both the op and ensemble mean. The trough axis over the US ends up getting pushed eastward into the Plains. The op GFS develops a strong vortex over central Canada by Dec 10. Just based on this prog, certainly poised to make some big dumps of arctic air into the Plains along the lee of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The changes in the long range 6z GFS are a little interesting. This is the first run I've seen that nearly completely breaks down / displaces the GOA low, and develops lower heights over the Aleutians. This change is seen in both the op and ensemble mean. The trough axis over the US ends up getting pushed eastward into the Plains. The op GFS develops a strong vortex over central Canada by Dec 10. Just based on this prog, certainly poised to make some big dumps of arctic air into the Plains along the lee of the Rockies. Those lower heights south ofthe Aleutians starting to look El Nino-ish for the first time in the N PAC. I'm skeptical that happens as the GEFS prog, but if it does, that changes the ballgame certainly in what type of pattern we have. It would probably push the cold air further into the south than versus the Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 The changes in the long range 6z GFS are a little interesting. This is the first run I've seen that nearly completely breaks down / displaces the GOA low, and develops lower heights over the Aleutians. This change is seen in both the op and ensemble mean. The trough axis over the US ends up getting pushed eastward into the Plains. The op GFS develops a strong vortex over central Canada by Dec 10. Just based on this prog, certainly poised to make some big dumps of arctic air into the Plains along the lee of the Rockies. Yeah I think the Rockies will be cold for sure. We just have to grab some of that and pull it east. Even a stupid cutter could do that, but then you gotta time a low coming out of the OV for a SWFE. The 06z is what I'm looking for in the other guidance. The Canadian tries to at the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 So it does seem like a little light snow changing to freezing drizzle this weekend, especially inland. Fri nite and all day Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 BTV's discussion yesterday evening was priceless... "not what some want to hear. sorry." I can't think of the NWS apologizing for delivering bad news before, lol. MONDAY - WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO OROGRAPHICS. BUT TEMPERATURES WONT BE THAT COLD -- 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES OF +2 TO +4C, SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500FT OR SO. NOT THE NEWS THAT SOME WANT TO HEAR. SORRY. IN GENERAL, ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. TUESDAY - CONTINUED FAST MOVING FLOW. SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PUSHING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. 925MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO NEAR +8C OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S, IF NOT SOME LOWER 60S! A BIT COOLER FARTHER EAST BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S COMMON IN VERMONT. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Fri nite and all day Sat? Well if you take the GFS verbatim, yes. But, it's extremely light with QPF in every time frame. So, that could mean two things. It could be just on and off stuff...or two....it may be more focused in a band or two streaming in off the ocean. The euro is pretty dry so I'm not sure how widespread it will be, but with WAA and winds aloft turning in off the ocean...I wouldn't be shocked if there was a little light snow and mixed precip. Just something to watch...I would like to see the euro a little more enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 BTV's discussion yesterday evening was priceless... "not what some want to hear. sorry." I can't think of the NWS apologizing for delivering bad news before, lol. MONDAY - WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO OROGRAPHICS. BUT TEMPERATURES WONT BE THAT COLD -- 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES OF +2 TO +4C, SO ANY SNOW WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500FT OR SO. NOT THE NEWS THAT SOME WANT TO HEAR. SORRY. IN GENERAL, ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S. TUESDAY - CONTINUED FAST MOVING FLOW. SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PUSHING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. 925MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO NEAR +8C OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S, IF NOT SOME LOWER 60S! A BIT COOLER FARTHER EAST BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S COMMON IN VERMONT. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. That's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Break out the snow gun hoses, tie them around your neck with comfortably numb playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 That's awesome. That's how you know its NNE... life, business, outdoor recreation this time of year all revolves around cold/snow. There's none of that "lets appeal to folks who think snow and cold is an annoyance." It also makes watching the evening weather on the news easier to stomach when they also think of rain and warmth as a downer and get really excited for snow/cold for the outdoor enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Well if you take the GFS verbatim, yes. But, it's extremely light with QPF in every time frame. So, that could mean two things. It could be just on and off stuff...or two....it may be more focused in a band or two streaming in off the ocean. The euro is pretty dry so I'm not sure how widespread it will be, but with WAA and winds aloft turning in off the ocean...I wouldn't be shocked if there was a little light snow and mixed precip. Just something to watch...I would like to see the euro a little more enthused. srefs have .10"+ for LI and parts of SNE. 12z UKIE looks like if it ran past 72 hours (precip maps), it would also have shown a similar thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Break out the snow gun hoses, tie them around your neck with comfortably numb playing. Sarah McLachlan songs playing on the Ipod. I expressed a little concern yesterday to Tim Kelley and he gave me this look.... "its only a couple days, you'll be back making snow by later next week. Deal with it Mon-Wed and then its back to cold and snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Sarah McLachlan songs playing on the Ipod. I expressed a little concern yesterday to Tim Kelley and he gave me this look.... "its only a couple days, you'll be back making snow by later next week. Deal with it Mon-Wed and then its back to cold and snow." Yeah later next week you can make snow. In the meantime, probably some good squalls as Will alluded to, tomorrow night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Pattern change starts about 12/15, is complete by 12/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Truncation sucks. The 12z GFS weakens most of the North Pacific low anomalies after 192h and then we rapidly transform the pattern. Seems sketchy... not saying the general idea is wrong (perhaps there will be more resistence with the GOA low) but it seems awfully funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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