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Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

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I'm going to be jealous mid-December watching you guys track these potentials. I'm looking forward to my mix to rain. lol

I wonder what the Jan 1977 event did for the MA? That was a HUGE event for Boston and surrounding areas. It was a wave of lp that never got below 1000 or 998mb ...somewhere in there, but it came up with GIANT PWAT hoist from the deep SE and lapped it over marginal airmass and sufficient UVM to tap into quite the polarward displaced theta-e anomaly.

Man did it snow and snow hard. It wasn't exactly calm, either. There was +PP NW of Maine to some degree - though no where near the extreme of 2 weeks later on Feb 6, but some nonetheless. Blowing and drifting took place to some degree with S+ and S++ through the city of Boston and surround burbs. I wonder if it thundered in that? Hm.. anyway, that system is so eclipsed by the Cleveland Super Bomb of Jan 25-28th, and then the infamous February 5-7th event, that it is easily forgotten, but that system set a 24-hour snow total record at Logan, which was interestingly broken 2 weeks later by the Feb 5-7th event.

I've seen video of that Jan 1977 preceding event though and that was dramatic near white-out conditions. But again I'm not sure what that did around your neck of the woods... my guess would be a lot of cold rain, but maybe Will would know.

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Skier did do some work correlating how a vortex being displaced into Greenland can eventually lead to a -NAO as we head into January. I know NJwinter mentioned this yesterday.

Well that may be indirectly related while something else is possibly forcing it there from the other side of the NH. Then of course last year the vortex was pushed to Greenland with a SSW and it meant nothing in terms of the NAO (but the AO was in the tank).

Solar forecasts say general smooth peak 12/16-12/17 so that will give a slight positive tendency to the annular modes and La Niña-like GLAAM. The exact way the sun affects things is of course in theory so I wouldn't get to bent out of shape over it. Also, forecasting techniques are in the dark ages in terms of the sun, especially when compared with our own atmosphere.

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If we can cash in during a period of gradient type patterns and SWFEs...it usually happens very quickly with several events in just a few days time.

Looking back at the Dec '08 and '07 patterns, BOS had 25.4" of their monthly 27.7" of snow in 3 different events in 8 days in Dec '07. They had 17.3" out of their 25.3" monthly snow in Dec 2008 in a span of 5 days over 3 events. In December 1975, they had 19.3" over 8 days and 3 events for all fo their monthly snow.

i'd rather get those amounts from one storm

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I wonder what the Jan 1977 event did for the MA? That was a HUGE event for Boston and surrounding areas. It was a wave of lp that never got below 1000 or 998mb ...somewhere in there, but it came up with GIANT PWAT hoist from the deep SE and lapped it over marginal airmass and sufficient UVM to tap into quite the polarward displaced theta-e anomaly.

Man did it snow and snow hard. It wasn't exactly calm, either. There was +PP NW of Maine to some degree - though no where near the extreme of 2 weeks later on Feb 6, but some nonetheless. Blowing and drifting took place to some degree with S+ and S++ through the city of Boston and surround burbs. I wonder if it thundered in that? Hm.. anyway, that system is so eclipsed by the Cleveland Super Bomb of Jan 25-28th, and then the infamous February 5-7th event, that it is easily forgotten, but that system set a 24-hour snow total record at Logan, which was interestingly broken 2 weeks later by the Feb 5-7th event.

I've seen video of that Jan 1977 preceding event though and that was dramatic near white-out conditions. But again I'm not sure what that did around your neck of the woods... my guess would be a lot of cold rain, but maybe Will would know.

You are mixing up Jan '77 and Jan '78?

Jan '77 had two large snow events for SNE that gave rain to the M.A. in one, and the other I believe was mostly a whiff for them as a late blooming Miller B.

Jan '78 storm actually gave big snow both to Philly and NYC...it was a busted forecast calling for rain there, but they got front end dumped. They didn't get the 21.4" of snow that BOS got in the Jan '78 storm but I believe it was around a foot before dryslot and a change to light rain before ending.

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Well that may be indirectly related while something else is possibly forcing it there from the other side of the NH. Then of course last year the vortex was pushed to Greenland with a SSW and it meant nothing in terms of the NAO (but the AO was in the tank).

Solar forecasts say general smooth peak 12/16-12/17 so that will give a slight positive tendency to the annular modes and La Niña-like GLAAM. The exact way the sun affects things is of course in theory so I wouldn't get to bent out of shape over it. Also, forecasting techniques are in the dark ages in terms of the sun, especially when compared with our own atmosphere.

Yeah it wasn't 100% or anything, just some interesting work he had done. You probably remember that, it was back in October I believe in the winter thread. As you noted, there is some nice stuff going on upstairs that could lead to fun times down the road. The EC ensembles through day15 bring warm anomalies at both 50mb and 10mb over the pole with a wave 1 look at 50mb, and a wave 2 look at 10mb.

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Yeah it wasn't 100% or anything, just some interesting work he had done. You probably remember that, it was back in October I believe in the winter thread. As you noted, there is some nice stuff going on upstairs that could lead to fun times down the road. The EC ensembles through day15 bring warm anomalies at both 50mb and 10mb over the pole with a wave 1 look at 50mb, and a wave 2 look at 10mb.

Pretty cool how that frequency upwelled huh ...

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You are mixing up Jan '77 and Jan '78?

Jan '77 had two large snow events for SNE that gave rain to the M.A. in one, and the other I believe was mostly a whiff for them as a late blooming Miller B.

Jan '78 storm actually gave big snow both to Philly and NYC...it was a busted forecast calling for rain there, but they got front end dumped. They didn't get the 21.4" of snow that BOS got in the Jan '78 storm but I believe it was around a foot before dryslot and a change to light rain before ending.

Yeah, that was a type-o ... I meant Jan '78... everything that year was in 1978, but I had it in the back of my mind that it was the winter of 1977-1978 so I typed that wrong.

d'oh.

Cool

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The cool part is....that was their ob at 11am. The cold tuck CAA is always so efficient.

yep....love getting the NNE drainage. one of the best for C and E parts of MA. usually creates some interesting weather too. if this airmass was a touch thicker it would probably be snowing lightly along the coast too...perhaps into interior MA.

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Brutal. 24/-1 down here with some BKN skies. We didn't get much snow, but at least it looks white again.

was driving home from Logan at 1am in that snow. Just flurries up to about exit 16, then a heavier shower and partially covered roads into Boscawen, then fully covered roads up the hill towards Salisbury. Would be nice to get a little bit tonight and tomorrow just to feel like winter.

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