ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 That's actually a big problem for me - because people should absolutely care, deeply. Othewise, they'll never understand this stuff. What you are saying is probably true, but is wrong and the wrong attitude to take. Part of the frustration in the consensus voice that goes around here, and makes your moderation job difficult ( ) is that you have go around mopping up subversive trolling (which is purely a venting for disappointment). That disappointment is rooted in folks having to depend on others with the 'know-with-all', to sate their snow lust; unfortunately, those with the know, f*** up too much because weather is inherently a vagarious pursuit, and there really is no crystal ball. So long as Joe A can blame Joe B (nice pun there, I know), there will be flame throwing. If people cared to understand that results are utterly connected to accurately assessing the 5H pattern evolution/synoptics, they'll analyze and see for them selves what's going on, and be less likely to be disappointed. As a general rule, more enlightened individuals throw less flame - there are screwed up types that are outside that curve, sure. In general though ... if a guy/gal can look at a chart and defend an argument against a storm or for a storm in their own rite, regardless of whatever Met they would otherwise have depended upon, they will be in a better attitude come verification. So in other words, Boxing Day 2010 is one of your favorite storms even if you got dryslotted there. 5H was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 That's actually a big problem for me - because people should absolutely care, deeply. Othewise, they'll never understand this stuff. What you are saying is probably true, but is wrong and the wrong attitude to take. Part of the frustration in the consensus voice that goes around here, and makes your moderation job difficult ( ) is that you have go around mopping up subversive trolling (which is purely a venting for disappointment). That disappointment is rooted in folks having to depend on others with the 'know-with-all', to sate their snow lust; unfortunately, those with the know, f*** up too much because weather is inherently a vagarious pursuit, and there really is no crystal ball. So long as Joe A can blame Joe B (nice pun there, I know), there will be flame throwing. If people cared to understand that results are utterly connected to accurately assessing the 5H pattern evolution/synoptics, they'll analyze and see for them selves what's going on, and be less likely to be disappointed. As a general rule, more enlightened individuals throw less flame - there are screwed up types that are outside that curve, sure. In general though ... if a guy/gal can look at a chart and defend an argument against a storm or for a storm in their own rite, regardless of whatever Met they would otherwise have depended upon, they will be in a better attitude come verification. Something about this whole post is deeply disturbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Mid-December still looks fine for New England and the threat toward the 10th and again toward the 20th are legitimate for this area. I think Will is very worried about the low heights over Alaska combining with elongating wavelengths in late December/early January to bring a torch. If we don't get the NAO to respond, his concerns will be very legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 One of Ryan's bosses at the station @bobmaxon: New data rolling in produces some snow later tonight/Early Saturday. ExactTrack says 1-2" as the mild air forces its way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 So in other words, Boxing Day 2010 is one of your favorite storms even if you got dryslotted there. 5H was epic. Ah, I didn't care about the v-notching in the QPF - I actually thought that was fascinating that the GFS had that modeled 4 days before it lost the system. I like to commiserate with everyone - I look at the event in regional totality at the end of the day, though. Except for ice-storms - if I miss that entirely, I could not be any happier. Not sure what the boner for icing is all about. That was an interesting hygroscopic scenario there in that the set up was perhaps too good. If Ayer-Fit had gotten more saturated, the warm air probably would have penetrated more into S/E zones - but that's just hypothesis. The storm was a success for me because I was yelling about data sparseness and assimilation inconsistency in a flow off the Pac that wasn't amplified enough to have the S/W routing go through the physical sounding domain over Alaska and adjacent western Canada. When ever we get these medium R-wave amplitude jobs that come into Washington/Oregan on a WNW -ESE trajectory, you get oscillations (more times than not) between wildly wrapped up bombs and then flat OTS 2 runs later driving everyone mad - haha. That storm was CLASSIC for that. Even the Euro had problems with it. Data assimilation is a great advantage to otherwise blackout regions, but it only takes us so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 That's actually a big problem for me - because people should absolutely care, deeply. Othewise, they'll never understand this stuff. What you are saying is probably true, but is wrong and the wrong attitude to take. Part of the frustration in the consensus voice that goes around here, and makes your moderation job difficult ( ) is that you have go around mopping up subversive trolling (which is purely a venting for disappointment). That disappointment is rooted in folks having to depend on others with the 'know-with-all', to sate their snow lust; unfortunately, those with the know, f*** up too much because weather is inherently a vagarious pursuit, and there really is no crystal ball. So long as Joe A can blame Joe B (nice pun there, I know), there will be flame throwing. If people cared to understand that results are utterly connected to accurately assessing the 5H pattern evolution/synoptics, they'll analyze and see for them selves what's going on, and be less likely to be disappointed. As a general rule, more enlightened individuals throw less flame - there are screwed up types that are outside that curve, sure. In general though ... if a guy/gal can look at a chart and defend an argument against a storm or for a storm in their own rite, regardless of whatever Met they would otherwise have depended upon, they will be in a better attitude come verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Something about this whole post is deeply disturbing Yeah, because it's logic undeniable points out that you are crazy - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Mid-December still looks fine for New England and the threat toward the 10th and again toward the 20th are legitimate for this area. I think Will is very worried about the low heights over Alaska combining with elongating wavelengths in late December/early January to bring a torch. If we don't get the NAO to respond, his concerns will be very legit. Yes I agree with this. 12/10 will provide the first chance though it may be tough to keep it wintry in SNE. Beyond that I can see a 5-7 day period with some potential but my concern is that once we get much past that the AO turns positive again after a solid -AO streak. Ensembles by D15 seem to finally displace the polar ridge bridge that at one point a week and a half ago looked like it could deliver a pretty epic stretch here. Haven't seen any favorable NAO ridging through D15 on the ensembles which makes me worried about 12/10 threat and also going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I like this la-la range, quasi January 1977 analog in the 00z GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 As Scott alluded to earlier, the EP vectors are much improved. ECMWF is forecasting a return toward the equator for a time but then possibly back toward the pole mid-dec. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/ep_12z_st_nh.html I really like what's happening in the stratosphere this year but unfortunately the waves are going to put the PV square over Greenland for a while. I'll take it if it means a total mid winter break down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Ah, I didn't care about the v-notching in the QPF - I actually thought that was fascinating that the GFS had that modeled 4 days before it lost the system. I like to commiserate with everyone - I look at the event in regional totality. Except for ice-storms - if I miss that entirely, I could not be any happier. Not sure what the boner for icing is all about. That was an interesting hygroscopic scenario there in that the set up was perhaps too good. If Ayer-Fit had gotten more saturated, the warm air probably would have penetrated more into S/E zones - but that's just hypothesis. The storm was a success for me because I was yelling about data sparseness and assimilation inconsistency in a flow off the Pac that wasn't amplified enough to have the S/W routing go through the physical sounding domain over Alaska and adjacent western Canada. When ever we get these medium R-wave amplitude jobs that come into Washington/Oregan on a WNW -ESE trajectory, you get oscillations (more times than not) between wildly wrapped up bombs and then flat OTS 2 runs later driving everyone mad - haha. That storm was CLASSIC for that. Even the Euro had problems with it. Data assimilation is a great advantage to otherwise blackout regions, but it only takes us so far. You were unhinged that night when I was dancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I like this la-la range, quasi January 1977 analog in the 00z GFS - I'm going to be jealous mid-December watching you guys track these potentials. I'm looking forward to my mix to rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yes I agree with this. 12/10 will provide the first chance though it may be tough to keep it wintry in SNE. Beyond that I can see a 5-7 day period with some potential but my concern is that once we get much past that the AO turns positive again after a solid -AO streak. Ensembles by D15 seem to finally displace the polar ridge bridge that at one point a week and a half ago looked like it could deliver a pretty epic stretch here. Haven't seen any favorable NAO ridging through D15 on the ensembles which makes me worried about 12/10 threat and also going forward. The whole thing to me resembles El Niño to some degree between the upwelling waves into the stratosphere and pattern alteration in December. There is going to be a few rough periods with these changes but the end results could be entertaining for ALL of the East Coast this time mid winter instead of just New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The whole thing to me resembles El Niño to some degree between the upwelling waves into the stratosphere and pattern alteration in December. There is going to be a few rough periods with these changes but the end results could be entertaining for ALL of the East Coast this time mid winter instead of just New England. Have to say the Bering Strait block was quite impressive for duration and intensity. That I'm sure did a number on the stratosphere from bottom-up? It looks like we lose that feature though by 12/20 so I envision a period of milder weather toward the end of the month after some modest mid-month chill? I do think 12/10-12/20 is good for some overrunning threats but it's tenuous. Would love to see a NAO signal develop. It's certainly possible by 12/15 we've been snowless and tracking our next warm up toward Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Have to say the Bering Strait block was quite impressive for duration and intensity. That I'm sure did a number on the stratosphere from bottom-up? It looks like we lose that feature though by 12/20 so I envision a period of milder weather toward the end of the month after some modest mid-month chill? I do think 12/10-12/20 is good for some overrunning threats but it's tenuous. Would love to see a NAO signal develop. It's certainly possible by 12/15 we've been snowless and tracking our next warm up toward Christmas. Any NAO signal while the MJO /Pacific is like it is and the stratospheric vortex is over Greenland should be viewed with extreme caution. I wouldn't trust any longer term guidance until we see reasons for it. Could we see a transient NAO feature and/or good timing with ridges/troughs to get new england a winter storm? Yes... But we won't see a true blocking episode until that stratospheric tornado gets out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 If we can cash in during a period of gradient type patterns and SWFEs...it usually happens very quickly with several events in just a few days time. Looking back at the Dec '08 and '07 patterns, BOS had 25.4" of their monthly 27.7" of snow in 3 different events in 8 days in Dec '07. They had 17.3" out of their 25.3" monthly snow in Dec 2008 in a span of 5 days over 3 events. In December 1975, they had 19.3" over 8 days and 3 events for all fo their monthly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 If we can cash in during a period of gradient type patterns and SWFEs...it usually happens very quickly with several events in just a few days time. Looking back at the Dec '08 and '07 patterns, BOS had 25.4" of their monthly 27.7" of snow in 3 different events in 8 days in Dec '07. They had 17.3" out of their 25.3" monthly snow in Dec 2008 in a span of 5 days over 3 events. In December 1975, they had 19.3" over 8 days and 3 events for all fo their monthly snow. Fast and Furious run of snow. That's the only thing people care about or will remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Hey Will, ORH with an 050 wind and BOS 340. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Any NAO signal while the MJO /Pacific is like it is and the stratospheric vortex is over Greenland should be viewed with extreme caution. I wouldn't trust any longer term guidance until we see reasons for it. Could we see a transient NAO feature and/or good timing with ridges/troughs to get new england a winter storm? Yes... But we won't see a true blocking episode until that stratospheric tornado gets out of there. I noticed that on the Berlin website by Day 10 from 10mb right on up through 100mb the stratospheric vortex was right over Greenland. That ain't helping you get a -NAO lol. I imagine that may hurt the 12/10 overrunning event too. Just some modest ridging would help but I'm not sure that's in the cards. Wonder if the MJO can wake up post 12/15 or 12/20 to start reshuffling the deck in the Pacific a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Meanwhile...GFS and NAM would be decent for my first inch of snow up here. I might be the last place in New England lol. 11/7 most of SNE and parts of CNE got 1"+, far NNE has had a few minor events and then the arctic front last night. Some places got a few inches Tuesday. Everything has avoided me very efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nice streak of snow across N Pa and SNY headed east right now. Maybe snow into Sne by dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I noticed that on the Berlin website by Day 10 from 10mb right on up through 100mb the stratospheric vortex was right over Greenland. That ain't helping you get a -NAO lol. I imagine that may hurt the 12/10 overrunning event too. Just some modest ridging would help but I'm not sure that's in the cards. Wonder if the MJO can wake up post 12/15 or 12/20 to start reshuffling the deck in the Pacific a bit. There are a few things to look for here... The Branstrator wave in the North Pacific, which is a 20-25 day retrogression cycle, has implications on circulation. If it were to work out as modeled, we would be looking at an Aleutian Low / Split Flow / PNA development sometime in the first half of January. There is also indications that if the Tropics continue to follow their patterns that the MJO may try to come alive as we move into the New Year. This would also fit with analog data, solar data and the North Pacific changes to some extent (feedback from retrograding N PAC low). Currently, the Tropical State is very similar to mid-October but the East Asian Jet has been very persistent along with the West Pacific stagnant forcing / Hadley Cell. These features combined with the IO forcing are basically disrupting any waves currently, but I don't think that will remain the case as we head into January. As the big Aleutian High in the stratosphere begins to stretch out the "surf zone" and the high PV anomalies become stretched, cooler air will be displaced to the equatorial regions mid to late December. This may mess with organized stagnant circulations and allow assistance for the MJO. Finally, the solar factor will also be dipping again late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Really great pattern illustration Will, HM, Scott N, Ryan, and others today. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 43 mostly cloudy, I thought it might be colder here today? Should reach 46 47 easily if not higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Skier did do some work correlating how a vortex being displaced into Greenland can eventually lead to a -NAO as we head into January. I know NJwinter mentioned this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nice streak of snow across N Pa and SNY headed east right now. Maybe snow into Sne by dark? More seriously ... (although it is too fun to make fun of you) ... I wouldn't be surprised if the region does make out with a slight over-performance over the next 36 hours. These llv cold air wedges tend to over perform even when the overrunning is even gentle. Then, the high gets east a little more, and we may actually set up a coastal boundary over eastern sections and get a bit of meso enhancement on the west side of that - nothing to write home about. Could see tomorrow turning out gray, cold with grains and light snow intervals and quite winter-like out of doors. Bluish tint to the air nearing sundown ...gorgeous and serene, albeit not a lot of snow, but Holiday friendly. Then we get into warmth and reality on Sunday ...but - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This torch is going to bring widespread 55-63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 43 mostly cloudy, I thought it might be colder here today? Should reach 46 47 easily if not higher. Wow 47 is probably what we get to on our torch days Monday/Tuesday up here. (Well, Tuesday may be 50-53) A refreshing 20.3F/3 at 11:30am up in the great state of NH. It's a little cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 43 mostly cloudy, I thought it might be colder here today? Should reach 46 47 easily if not higher. even warmer here @ 45--coldest air from Boston NE--BOS at 32 Concord NH at 26. Most of CT upper 30's to mid 40's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 43 mostly cloudy, I thought it might be colder here today? Should reach 46 47 easily if not higher. It's 33.5F here with a similar sky condition. Cold and grey with typical November gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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