ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 52 year anniversary storm? I was thinking more like 20 year anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 BOS now 30/6 at 10 AM obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Its just weird seeing all other mets that we respect positive and you negative. I wasn't being negative...I'm simply pointing out what guidance shows and its not an unrealistic scenario. I was the one yesterday telling people to stop skydiving with no parachutes because the ensembles didn't show a Dec '83 cold outbreak or a KU cookbook pattern. People need to wait and see how the pattern unfolds and not set expectations to unrealistic levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I was thinking more like 20 year anniversary. The 1960 event was better for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 BOS now 30/6 at 10 AM obs. Sheesh chilly jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Can some folks squeeze out an inch tonite/tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Imagine my surprise when I had to fill in for the New England guy and said it "the outsider way" to a client. Always opens up the door for a longer phone call than it has to be and that's never good. lol You crack me up, and of course, i know the feeling all too well.. The pattern now is also very progressive, owing to the PAC Jet. As soon as we get cold, another warm plume develops east of the Rockies and heads east. If we can weaken the vortex and just back the thing up a little..it would create a much less progressive pattern and flood the nrn US with cold. It does look like we fill in those heights out west and instead we develop a PV that sends a lobe down into srn Canada. Now the flow associated with that is not perfect, but this is what gave us our previous snowy SWFE December's of the past. That vort lobe or trough pushing into srn Canada was not there last year and this is a huge piece of the SWFE puzzle. What we need now is some sort of ridging in the Atlantic...not necessarily even a -NAO..just something to keep the trough oriented in a shape to deliver the cold into the US. The Aleutian ridge is more a steady state feature so I'm not terribly concerned with that, but we want that to stay highly amped up. If not, then the flow will tend to be zonal across the Pacific into the western US and mild and dry rules the roost. ALA last year. I'm really impressed with how well the climate/seasonal models picked up on this Aleutian ridge far in advance. I'd imagine it has a lot to do with the strong -PDO circulation/north pacific SST outline we saw through the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 I wasn't being negative...I'm simply pointing out what guidance shows and its not an unrealistic scenario. I was the one yesterday telling people to stop skydiving with no parachutes because the ensembles didn't show a Dec '83 cold outbreak or a KU cookbook pattern. People need to wait and see how the pattern unfolds and not set expectations to unrealistic levels. LOL, see....you point out something positive and then it gets thrown back in your face a week later when it doesn't happen....and then you are being negative when you point out a pattern that we don't want to see. Comprehension FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 You crack me up, and of course, i know the feeling all too well.. I'm really impressed with how well the climate/seasonal models picked up on this Aleutian ridge far in advance. I'd imagine it has a lot to do with the strong -PDO circulation/north pacific SST outline we saw through the fall. If you fire up the correlations to a -PDO and -PNA for December...it fits in right there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 I wonder if I can squeeze out a little SN along the coastal front tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 When PVC is colder than HYA by 3F...you know that is a cold airmass coming off of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 When PVC is colder than HYA by 3F...you know that is a cold airmass coming off of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I wonder if I can squeeze out a little SN along the coastal front tonight. You still like upslope tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Its just weird seeing all other mets that we respect positive and you negative. Why would we make assumptions on the 6z Gefs? That is the garbage of garbage Come on dude, this is nonsense now...A couple of weeks ago i remember Will, among others, pointing out some hints on the long range 6z gefs throwing up a PNA ridge for early dec. That instance, like today, was merely random comments for continued discussion about the potential pattern, and obviously not a forecast. Not surprisingly, I didnt see you post anything like this following those instances/comments, because they hitned at a potentially more favorable outcome for your never ending cold agenda lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Can some folks squeeze out an inch tonite/tomorrow? maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 People should remember how weird November behaved. Do we not remember what the ensembles said about this month a couple weeks out? It looks like a massive torch. Its not going to be easy for guidance to predict the sensible wx with such weak signals. I suspect we will see: 1. A lot of run to run fluctuations...even not that far out like D8-10 2. Sensible wx may not always match the 5H pattern...i.e. we saw cold over perform quite a bit in November starting with that 11/7 snowstorm 3. Even if the pattern turns hostile for a bit, nothing looks like it wants to stick in place long term right now. and finally: 4. Nobody will care how ugly or good the 5H pattern is in the end if the snowfall verifies high or low respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 LOL, see....you point out something positive and then it gets thrown back in your face a week later when it doesn't happen....and then you are being negative when you point out a pattern that we don't want to see. Comprehension FTL. Nobody threw anything in his face and we understand everything. It was simply an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Come on dude, this is nonsense now...A couple of weeks ago i remember Will, among others, pointing out some hints on the long range 6z gefs throwing up a PNA ridge for early dec. That instance, like today, was merely random comments for continued discussion about the potential pattern, and obviously not a forecast. Not surprisingly, I didnt see you post anything like this following those instances/comments, because they hitned at a potentially more favorable outcome for your never ending cold agenda lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Well played... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 People should remember how weird November behaved. Do we not remember what the ensembles said about this month a couple weeks out? It looks like a massive torch. Its not going to be easy for guidance to predict the sensible wx with such weak signals. I suspect we will see: 1. A lot of run to run fluctuations...even not that far out like D8-10 2. Sensible wx may not always match the 5H pattern...i.e. we saw cold over perform quite a bit in November starting with that 11/7 snowstorm 3. Even if the pattern turns hostile for a bit, nothing looks like it wants to stick in place long term right now. and finally: 4. Nobody will care how ugly or good the 5H pattern is in the end if the snowfall verifies high or low respectively. Yep, good post....but this will be forgotten by the weenies in 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nobody threw anything in his face and we understand everything. It was simply an observation 06z GEFS isn't any less valuable than 00z. This is horrible thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 06z GEFS isn't any less valuable than 00z. This is horrible thinking. Violently disagree to the point of shaking your Sears Lands End striped button up shirt with hood off of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Violently disagree to the point of shaking your Sears Lands End striped button up shirt off of you But in all seriousness, your logic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 But in all seriousness, your logic fail. Upslope on west side of cf tomorrow ones flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Upslope on west side of cf tomorrow ones flow? Well, it may not be totally upslope. Models bring weak lift due to WAA near 850 over CT in the morning. Could be a little SN and then -FZRA or so on top of it. Guidance is so light with QPF, but they do spit out some QPF. I wouldn't expect much. BOX seems optimistic with temps in the interior tomorrow, but I am skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 People should remember how weird November behaved. Do we not remember what the ensembles said about this month a couple weeks out? It looks like a massive torch. Its not going to be easy for guidance to predict the sensible wx with such weak signals. I suspect we will see: 1. A lot of run to run fluctuations...even not that far out like D8-10 2. Sensible wx may not always match the 5H pattern...i.e. we saw cold over perform quite a bit in November starting with that 11/7 snowstorm 3. Even if the pattern turns hostile for a bit, nothing looks like it wants to stick in place long term right now. and finally: 4. Nobody will care how ugly or good the 5H pattern is in the end if the snowfall verifies high or low respectively. That's actually a big problem for me - because people should absolutely care, deeply. Othewise, they'll never understand this stuff. What you are saying is probably true, but is wrong and the wrong attitude to take. Part of the frustration in the consensus voice that goes around here, and makes your moderation job difficult ( ) is that you have go around mopping up subversive trolling (which is purely a venting for disappointment). That disappointment is rooted in folks having to depend on others with the 'know-with-all', to sate their snow lust; unfortunately, those with the know, f*** up too much because weather is inherently a vagarious pursuit, and there really is no crystal ball. So long as Joe A can blame Joe B (nice pun there, I know), there will be flame throwing. If people cared to understand that results are utterly connected to accurately assessing the 5H pattern evolution/synoptics, they'll analyze and see for them selves what's going on, and be less likely to be disappointed. As a general rule, more enlightened individuals throw less flame - there are screwed up types that are outside that curve, sure. In general though ... if a guy/gal can look at a chart and defend an argument against a storm or for a storm in their own rite, regardless of whatever Met they would otherwise have depended upon, they will be in a better attitude come verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 congrats Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 LOL was that even map worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 that's funny, i purely used the statistical packages to assess that coastal chances might get interesting in 10 days or whatever, then i saw the 00z GGEM. man... this would be an awesome event. purely for muse at this range - granted - but seeing interesting statistical arguments then show up in ANY operational guidance is always interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 That's actually a big problem for me - because people should absolutely care, deeply. I pray for the wellbeing of H5 every night before bed. After all, if I'm not on good terms with H5 it might not give me a snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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