Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 JohnWow was working on a skin that will be a standard skin. The sides may vary depending upon your screen resolution. It's designed for a 1024x768 resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Lol all that good news before and today it's Will who is the killjoy xxx2 is slipping away. I will always remember the early Nov snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 With this type of variability with the models it might be a good idea to put on a blindfold and check them in a week, see what they say then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Liking the possible gradient pattern that may develop after the 10th. Just get through the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Hopefully they are wrong, but the GEFS formed the core of low anomalies on the end of their run in the W AK/Bering straight region and subsequently start torching W Canada where all the frigid air has been recently. That would not bode well for us down the line later on. Euro ensembles aren't as bad as they keep hints of ridging near Kamchatka...more neutralish heights up there. But this could be that warm period HM was alluding to around the end of December that might just be starting to show up. If it is, hopefully we cash in on the gradient-esque pattern that happens before then. I didn't they looked too bad. They did have the GOA trough, but heights were rising again near the Aleutians and weak ridging over the west. I actually thought the EC looked worse than the GEFS..lol. The Euro toally lost the Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Lol even mets need to step away from the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Low level cloud deck already here, hopefully we can get some mood flakes later today and tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 nam is bone dry here later today and tonight, hopefully its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 when sne mets hope for a gradient pattern it means everything looks horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 when sne mets hope for a gradient pattern it means everything looks horrible Yeah, for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Lol even mets need to step away from the models Well as we said all along, we will be on the line. It won't take much to make it great, and the same can be said for disaster. Just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This month breaks Nov 1976 as driest on record. Expect this winter to mirror that one I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Well as we said all along, we will be on the line. It won't take much to make it great, and the same can be said for disaster. Just don't know. We'll be just fine. Way too much worry over nothing. If Ryan is positive today it's time hammer the pedal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 We'll be just fine. Way too much worry over nothing. If Ryan is positive today it's time hammer the pedal When you have these patterns, it's tough to see the sensible outcomes in SNE. Similar patterns can produce way different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, for NYC. a few moderate events for sne with rain south of there is normal. you're hoping for a week of normal wx in mid dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Better hope Jan/Feb rock. We've lost Dec and Morch, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 FWIW CFS weeklies continue to indicate a change to colder pattern for weeks 3&4 but probably starting towards the end of week 2. Also they had a big + PNA ridge for week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 a few moderate events for sne with rain south of there is normal. you're hoping for a week of normal wx in mid dec Normal December wx would be fine with me. I'd take it. I don't need to jackpot with 12" of snow. In any case, last nights models imho weren't bad. Not perfect, but not terrible for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Well at least were not in the mid atlantic, "its a long december and there's reason to believe maybe this year will be better than the last..." At some point in the next two weeks blizz may realize his snowiest month this winter may likely be november nice counting crows reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I'd take that. If this winter will be anything like the winter of 1976-1977 I am sure that the older folks in Buffalo remember this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I didn't they looked too bad. They did have the GOA trough, but heights were rising again near the Aleutians and weak ridging over the west. I actually thought the EC looked worse than the GEFS..lol. The Euro toally lost the Aleutian ridge. I was looking at the 06z GEFs.... The 00z run didn't look as bad and had more ridging in the NW terrirotries. This pattern in a snap shot is fine as the cold air has already been dumped into Canada and the northern tier, but it would turn ugly in a hurry down the road after this. But the guidance keeps switching it seems every run...probably because there are so many weak signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 I was looking at the 06z GEFs.... The 00z run didn't look as bad and had more ridging in the NW terrirotries. This pattern in a snap shot is fine as the cold air has already been dumped into Canada and the northern tier, but it would turn ugly in a hurry down the road after this. But the guidance keeps switching it seems every run...probably because there are so many weak signals. Oh I didn't even look at those. Usually, I just compare the big three on the 00z runs since the 06z aren't available for the Canadian and EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 But 06z is what we don't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Oh I didn't even look at those. Usually, I just compare the big three on the 00z runs since the 06z aren't available for the Canadian and EC. i hear the ec weekleys are in and not looking to good for weeks 3-4 per the mr bob in the south sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Why would we make assumptions on the 6z Gefs? That is the garbage of garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Why would we make assumptions on the 6z Gefs? That is the garbage of garbage Who made any assumptions or forecasts off the 06z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Are you kidding ? It looks 10 times better than the overnight telly progs from yesterday - not even close. And as I opined yesterday, one week to 10 days leading of trend analysis meeting with observed large scale environmental variables, suddenly breaking continuity on such a large hemispheric scale, such that yesterday's profile offered, was dubious. Today, I see the AO is doesn't make neutral and in fact, the sudden whiplash rise that the CEFs cluster mean is still trying to sell is clearly hot biased. The intervals all show that the mean has been positive biased and there is no such thing in this business as a 90 degree inflection point in the monitoring curve - it can be steep in changing, granted, but there is no way that is going to happen that way. Looking at the D8-10 freebie mean shows that the PV is returning to a split format, which is a much better fit for the total depth of the weakly coupled stratosphere troposphere for the times. Therefore, strongly suggest a relaxation in the AO is probable, but the longer term means remains negative - the subtended EPO and NAO domains will be effected where their respective domains spaces are shared. Watch for a coastal D10-12 possibly materializing in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Who made any assumptions or forecasts off the 06z GEFS? Its just weird seeing all other mets that we respect positive and you negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 But 06z is what we don't want. it's funny because i was looking at them and thought they weren't terrible. but they look worse on that PSU chart. i have them on a flat projection and thought it wasn't so bad - at least when looked at for that instant in time. extrapolating them forward would not be great but i think they fit that idea that after 12/10-12/12 ish there's a period there where things are OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Are you kidding ? It looks 10 times better than the overnight telly progs from yesterday - not even close. And as I opined yesterday, one week to 10 days leading of trend analysis meeting with observed large scale environmental variables, suddenly breaking continuity on such a large hemispheric scale, such that yesterday's profile offered, was dubious. Today, I see the AO is doesn't make neutral and in fact, the sudden whiplash rise that the CEFs cluster mean is still trying to sell is clearly hot biased. The intervals all show that the mean has been positive biased and there is no such thing in this business as a 90 degree inflection point in the monitoring curve - it can be steep in changing, granted, but there is no way that is going to happen that way. Looking at the D8-10 freebie mean shows that the PV is returning to a split format, which is a much better fit for the total depth of the weakly coupled stratosphere troposphere for the times. Therefore, strongly suggest a relaxation in the AO is probable, but the longer term means remains negative - the subtended EPO and NAO domains will be effected where their respective domains spaces are shared. Watch for a coastal D10-12 possibly materializing in future runs. 52 year anniversary storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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