Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Hopefully they are wrong, but the GEFS formed the core of low anomalies on the end of their run in the W AK/Bering straight region and subsequently start torching W Canada where all the frigid air has been recently. That would not bode well for us down the line later on. Euro ensembles aren't as bad as they keep hints of ridging near Kamchatka...more neutralish heights up there.

But this could be that warm period HM was alluding to around the end of December that might just be starting to show up. If it is, hopefully we cash in on the gradient-esque pattern that happens before then.

I didn't they looked too bad. They did have the GOA trough, but heights were rising again near the Aleutians and weak ridging over the west. I actually thought the EC looked worse than the GEFS..lol. The Euro toally lost the Aleutian ridge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

a few moderate events for sne with rain south of there is normal. you're hoping for a week of normal wx in mid dec

Normal December wx would be fine with me. I'd take it. I don't need to jackpot with 12" of snow.

In any case, last nights models imho weren't bad. Not perfect, but not terrible for SNE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well at least were not in the mid atlantic, "its a long december and there's reason to believe maybe this year will be better than the last..." At some point in the next two weeks blizz may realize his snowiest month this winter may likely be november :)

nice counting crows reference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didn't they looked too bad. They did have the GOA trough, but heights were rising again near the Aleutians and weak ridging over the west. I actually thought the EC looked worse than the GEFS..lol. The Euro toally lost the Aleutian ridge.

I was looking at the 06z GEFs....

f360.gif

The 00z run didn't look as bad and had more ridging in the NW terrirotries.

This pattern in a snap shot is fine as the cold air has already been dumped into Canada and the northern tier, but it would turn ugly in a hurry down the road after this.

But the guidance keeps switching it seems every run...probably because there are so many weak signals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was looking at the 06z GEFs....

f360.gif

The 00z run didn't look as bad and had more ridging in the NW terrirotries.

This pattern in a snap shot is fine as the cold air has already been dumped into Canada and the northern tier, but it would turn ugly in a hurry down the road after this.

But the guidance keeps switching it seems every run...probably because there are so many weak signals.

Oh I didn't even look at those. Usually, I just compare the big three on the 00z runs since the 06z aren't available for the Canadian and EC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you kidding ? It looks 10 times better than the overnight telly progs from yesterday - not even close.

And as I opined yesterday, one week to 10 days leading of trend analysis meeting with observed large scale environmental variables, suddenly breaking continuity on such a large hemispheric scale, such that yesterday's profile offered, was dubious. Today, I see the AO is doesn't make neutral and in fact, the sudden whiplash rise that the CEFs cluster mean is still trying to sell is clearly hot biased. The intervals all show that the mean has been positive biased and there is no such thing in this business as a 90 degree inflection point in the monitoring curve - it can be steep in changing, granted, but there is no way that is going to happen that way.

Looking at the D8-10 freebie mean shows that the PV is returning to a split format, which is a much better fit for the total depth of the weakly coupled stratosphere troposphere for the times.

Therefore, strongly suggest a relaxation in the AO is probable, but the longer term means remains negative - the subtended EPO and NAO domains will be effected where their respective domains spaces are shared.

Watch for a coastal D10-12 possibly materializing in future runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But 06z is what we don't want.

:lol: it's funny because i was looking at them and thought they weren't terrible. but they look worse on that PSU chart. i have them on a flat projection and thought it wasn't so bad - at least when looked at for that instant in time. extrapolating them forward would not be great but i think they fit that idea that after 12/10-12/12 ish there's a period there where things are OK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you kidding ? It looks 10 times better than the overnight telly progs from yesterday - not even close.

And as I opined yesterday, one week to 10 days leading of trend analysis meeting with observed large scale environmental variables, suddenly breaking continuity on such a large hemispheric scale, such that yesterday's profile offered, was dubious. Today, I see the AO is doesn't make neutral and in fact, the sudden whiplash rise that the CEFs cluster mean is still trying to sell is clearly hot biased. The intervals all show that the mean has been positive biased and there is no such thing in this business as a 90 degree inflection point in the monitoring curve - it can be steep in changing, granted, but there is no way that is going to happen that way.

Looking at the D8-10 freebie mean shows that the PV is returning to a split format, which is a much better fit for the total depth of the weakly coupled stratosphere troposphere for the times.

Therefore, strongly suggest a relaxation in the AO is probable, but the longer term means remains negative - the subtended EPO and NAO domains will be effected where their respective domains spaces are shared.

Watch for a coastal D10-12 possibly materializing in future runs.

52 year anniversary storm?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...