Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The East Asian Jet / Pacific Setup and RNA all look very familiar. We are very close to that in the first part of December 2012 too, per modeling. My concern is not temperatures this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Weeklies are going to come in quite cold and stormy this evening. Can't wait to see them Did you get the early release weeklies from Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 haha. Almost as funny as the way you guys pronounce "Peabody" PEEEbuhDEEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Everybody hanging on the weeklies despite their bust recently beyond week 2. Latest CFS is "cooling" for December. Instead of a huge torch some areas are normal and magnitude is much less. Looks like they expect an NAO given the highest positive departures NE of us. January is cool but February is a torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Did you get the early release weeklies from Tip? That was a KFS fail about the weeklies. They were sort of meh. The good: Strong Aleutian ridge over into the poles and down into eastern Greenland and into the srn tip of Greenland. The Bad: The PNA seems to want to pump higher heights in the east and surface temps were above normal. It does look very gradient like, but where will we be? Tough to tell. Weeklies have not been stellar lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The 12z ens mean of the Euro argued that the operational was a westerly out"liar" wrt to the mid nation trough axis by D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Everybody hanging on the weeklies despite their bust recently beyond week 2. Latest CFS is "cooling" for December. Instead of a huge torch some areas are normal and magnitude is much less. Looks like they expect an NAO given the highest positive departures NE of us. January is cool but February is a torchy. That's because they are drowning in a stormy sea of otherwise dog schit realities being offered up by every other source. it's too unbearable, so they turn to any solution at all no matter how absurd it is to do so. it's like jumping from 30 stories up to get out of burning highrise - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Where is the precip fellas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The euro weeklies gradient will be in torontoblizzard's fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 The pattern now is also very progressive, owing to the PAC Jet. As soon as we get cold, another warm plume develops east of the Rockies and heads east. If we can weaken the vortex and just back the thing up a little..it would create a much less progressive pattern and flood the nrn US with cold. It does look like we fill in those heights out west and instead we develop a PV that sends a lobe down into srn Canada. Now the flow associated with that is not perfect, but this is what gave us our previous snowy SWFE December's of the past. That vort lobe or trough pushing into srn Canada was not there last year and this is a huge piece of the SWFE puzzle. What we need now is some sort of ridging in the Atlantic...not necessarily even a -NAO..just something to keep the trough oriented in a shape to deliver the cold into the US. The Aleutian ridge is more a steady state feature so I'm not terribly concerned with that, but we want that to stay highly amped up. If not, then the flow will tend to be zonal across the Pacific into the western US and mild and dry rules the roost. ALA last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Where is the precip fellas? It is being begettin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I wanted to share this here, mainly because it's really cool and I know it won't get much attention in the main forum. Sorry for the OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It is being begettin' All the speculating in the world about Vortexes and AO MJO etc is awesome but where the fook is the precip? Open up the goddarn Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I wanted to share this here, mainly because it's really cool and I know it won't get much attention in the main forum. http://www.americanw...65#entry1888969 Sorry for the OT Cool congrats Queen of England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Sultan , its bein squeezed out over the spine of n. Greens and that's it. But seriously , good point. The map u posted wrt precip anomalies was ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Sultan , its bein squeezed out over the spine of n. Greens and that's it. But seriously , good point. The map u posted wrt precip anomalies was ugly We need a cutter that comes out of Miss and heads to Detroit then a thermal gradient that sets up along the East Coast for some baroclinic development. Deep digging troughs that suck the water off the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Beautiful night out there... got a good feeling about this winter after this awesome November. Not the snowiest November, but consistent cold and a bunch of nickel and dime (at least a trace everday since Sunday) events. Getting the Mount Tolland snow this evening... 30-32F and snow sticking to every branch and twig. 2" between 3-6pm with a little over 4" on the ground. Great call by Will/Coastalwx/etc on the NNE windex potential a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 We need a cutter that comes out of Miss and heads to Detroit then a thermal gradient that sets up along the East Coast for some baroclinic development. Deep digging troughs that suck the water off the GOM. Yeah definitely need some more synoptic moisture to work into this pattern.... been way too dry all things considered. That's always a concern... dry winters mean below normal snow; wet winters are above normal snow. We haven't had a cold/dry winter in a little while, so we may be due.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Gorgeous Moon Rise tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 The bottom line is guys, many of us try to give our best thoughts. We talk about the good, the bad, and the ugly, and at times it can get verbose and it's understandable if things get lost in the translation. I probably post so much that my owns thoughts get lost as just another post, LOL...but I like to talk weather. If anybody has a question...just ask and put us on the spot. We'll give our best spin. I do think things will turn for the better heading into and past the second week. I don't know if it will be epic, but it will offer us a better opportunity. It's virtually impossible to figure out where the gradient sets up when we are 2 weeks out. It likely will be close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Its funny how the ensmebles keep shifting. 12z Euro ensembles as some already mentioned have the cold air driven further south into the northern ties of the U.S. You can actually already see it by D10 with negative anomalies spilling into the northern plains on a much better trajectory versus the ensembles last night. At any rate, we will have to see which idea ends up being correct, and we won't know that probably until next week sometime. This is probably a sign of how difficult it is for the models to nail down the pattern. A wintry pattern cannot get here soon enough for the health of this board (NE and Lakes forums esp). The unnecessary fear for this winter (which has not yet begun) is at an all-time high across the board it seems. Will do a LOT better once winter settles in. Im so sick of hearing things about 2011-12...this is NOTHING like 2011-12! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is probably a sign of how difficult it is for the models to nail down the pattern. A wintry pattern cannot get here soon enough for the health of this board (NE and Lakes forums esp). The unnecessary fear for this winter (which has not yet begun) is at an all-time high across the board it seems. Will do a LOT better once winter settles in. Im so sick of hearing things about 2011-12...this is NOTHING like 2011-12! It's amazing how 12z comes in colder, 00z warmer. Been that way for days now..lol. Some of it may be related to the MJO (which is weak) regions as any little shift in convection wiggles the downstream height pattern and the end result actually can be quite different around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 gfs looks decent for some flakes saturday, should be a festive day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think we ride the 12z euro ens into the night. Those seem like they have the best handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Looks like we snuggle up to an inch or so on Saturday. Sunday may wedge us in for much of the day. Monday and Tuesday close the shades and stay inside till it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Looks like we snuggle up to an inch or so on Saturday. Sunday may wedge us in for much of the day. Monday and Tuesday close the shades and stay inside till it ends Saab convertible days will be here. Embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Sucks Nino is pretty much dead. It helps having the warmer anomalies in the western areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Saab convertible days will be here. Embrace it. in the truck drive to work drive home in the dark. Won't even notice it. 2 days and its back to now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 in the truck drive to work drive home in the dark. Won't even notice it. 2 days and its back to now What do you think highs in ORH will be Sun to Tues? 55? Back below freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 What do you think highs in ORH will be Sun to Tues? 55? Back below freezing here. 52-53 hills max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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