Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 and the red taggers here do a damn good job of it...thank you Right on! Red Taggers have been spot on and saying the same things for over a week now, some just do not choose to listen. Meanwhile a couple very cold days and potential pixie dust for most away from the south coast it should look and feel like winter Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 These ultra early snow events spoil us, give me a normal fall and bring the snow just before the holidays. Somehow, I still have a bit of snow around from Tuesday, ponds are freezing over, local ski hill opens Friday, and it is still only November. I am at peace. Holiday snow is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Lol @ of course there will be chances in two weeks, comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Mega snowstorm that paralyzes most of the Dorchester/Boston area...right around Dec 13-14... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think most of us just discuss the pros and cons. Sure the first week didn't work out as planned....I personally thought it would be better. This current break we are in is well modeled...for the last 10 days now. I figured the 10th would probably be when things changed around for a better looking pattern for snow. Maybe give or take a day. Long range as Gibbs used to say can be Voodoo. But I think most of us have done a good job going over the pros and cons of the pattern. It's a weather forum so I don't know what else we can do. A lot of agony could be spared by understanding climo a little, there is a reason it is incorporated into things like MOS. Just doing some quick and dirty climo calculations you see that regardless of ENSO/patterns/etc BOS averages less than one snowfall above 3" per December and around 4 per season. BDL (area) just over 1 and 4.5, and ORH 1.5 and 6, respectively. Throw in average first date of greater than 3" snowfall and you see ORH 12/13, BDL (area) 12/23, and BOS 12/29. Even PWM is on par with ORH for this early part of the snowfall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Alright guys I know I have been a douche and too much of a weenie but I am going to start to become a better poster I promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Alright guys I know I have been a douche and too much of a weenie but I am going to start to become a better poster I promise! If ChrisM can do it, so can you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 A lot of agony could be spared by understanding climo a little, there is a reason it is incorporated into things like MOS. Just doing some quick and dirty climo calculations you see that regardless of ENSO/patterns/etc BOS averages less than one snowfall above 3" per December and around 4 per season. BDL (area) just over 1 and 4.5, and ORH 1.5 and 6, respectively. Throw in average first date of greater than 3" snowfall and you see ORH 12/13, BDL (area) 12/23, and BOS 12/29. Even PWM is on par with ORH for this early part of the snowfall season. Great post, Tim should read this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 BTW here is a composite of the 6 snowiest Decembers for Boston since 1950...probably not what most people would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Euro Ens not terrible day 11-15. Gradient pattern... hopefully can cash in. Could go horribly wrong but it's not bad looking IMO. Still low height AK/GOA but we're able to pop some PNA ridging and release the cold. The AO... however... is looking more and more positive. Models agree on this. That may temper the cold and shut out places S of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think most of us just discuss the pros and cons. Sure the first week didn't work out as planned....I personally thought it would be better. This current break we are in is well modeled...for the last 10 days now. I figured the 10th would probably be when things changed around for a better looking pattern for snow. Maybe give or take a day. Long range as Gibbs used to say can be Voodoo. But I think most of us have done a good job going over the pros and cons of the pattern. It's a weather forum so I don't know what else we can do. Oh I'm not so much "worried" about the current period. It's one comes after that concerns me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Scooter is writing a Tip-esque diatribe. I assume people are thinking nothing happens Sat/Sat night? I think it might whiten things up again before flushing down the drain Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 A lot of agony could be spared by understanding climo a little, there is a reason it is incorporated into things like MOS. Just doing some quick and dirty climo calculations you see that regardless of ENSO/patterns/etc BOS averages less than one snowfall above 3" per December and around 4 per season. BDL (area) just over 1 and 4.5, and ORH 1.5 and 6, respectively. Throw in average first date of greater than 3" snowfall and you see ORH 12/13, BDL (area) 12/23, and BOS 12/29. Even PWM is on par with ORH for this early part of the snowfall season. Yeah, exactly...that spells it out right there. I think we mentioned this 20 times in the last 20 days...Will just talked about it this morning. However, you throw in these early season events....and that goes out the window for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 BTW here is a composite of the 6 snowiest Decembers for Boston since 1950...probably not what most people would think. The East Asian Jet / Pacific Setup and RNA all look very familiar. We are very close to that in the first part of December 2012 too, per modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Euro Ens not terrible day 11-15. Gradient pattern... hopefully can cash in. Could go horribly wrong but it's not bad looking IMO. Still low height AK/GOA but we're able to pop some PNA ridging and release the cold. The AO... however... is looking more and more positive. Models agree on this. That may temper the cold and shut out places S of 40N. Yeah I noticed the AO has at least looked a bit more neutral going foward as opposed to negative. When I did that bit of Nov AO stats...you can the best chance for relaxation in the blocking was December but then it tends to come back with vengeance for January and February. There was a couple winters where it didn't come back..but more likely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The East Asian Jet / Pacific Setup and RNA all look very familiar. We are very close to that in the first part of December 2012 too, per modeling. Well that settles it! HM is promising us historic snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Well that settles it! HM is promising us historic snowfall! haha. Almost as funny as the way you guys pronounce "Peabody" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 haha. Almost as funny as the way you guys pronounce "Peabody" Lol the first time I heard someone pronounce it "Pea-body" I thought they had some kind of speech impediment. It'll always be "Peabiddy" to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 lol that idiom when you imagine it literally is pretty funny. How about being up s****s creek without boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Not sure if anyone here gets Weatherbell, but apparently Bastardi and D'Aleo are calling for the cold to move in around the 10-15th of the month, with Bastardi opining that it will hold through much of January and February. Their analogs include 2003-2004, 1962-63 and 1968-69. Not holding my breath after their forecast last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 haha. Almost as funny as the way you guys pronounce "Peabody" Before the time of many on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Scooter is writing a Tip-esque diatribe. I assume people are thinking nothing happens Sat/Sat night? I think it might whiten things up again before flushing down the drain Sunday Barbequed snowflakes on the menu for sunday/monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Looks like we just need some sort of block, is there some pseudo block to route for the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 BTW here is a composite of the 6 snowiest Decembers for Boston since 1950...probably not what most people would think. Ehhh, not surprising either. NAO being east-based is interesting, but the slam dunk there for me is having that strong -EPO signal. We also have to remember, that's the mean. If that were the base-line pattern, and discrete perturbations rippling through disturbed it, the result of that base-line, plus the restoring may have meant snow. That's why these patterns on the fascia might not look one way or the other. That all said, I have been a loud mouthed, obnoxious a-hole for years about pounding out the significance of needing the NE Pac for the cold/snow loading pattern from the NP to NE, even more so than the NAO. That's certainly supported above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Its funny how the ensmebles keep shifting. 12z Euro ensembles as some already mentioned have the cold air driven further south into the northern ties of the U.S. You can actually already see it by D10 with negative anomalies spilling into the northern plains on a much better trajectory versus the ensembles last night. At any rate, we will have to see which idea ends up being correct, and we won't know that probably until next week sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Hahaha that damn mr. Peabody, responsible for society mispronouncing the name of our city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Lol the first time I heard someone pronounce it "Pea-body" I thought they had some kind of speech impediment. It'll always be "Peabiddy" to us. Imagine my surprise when I had to fill in for the New England guy and said it "the outsider way" to a client. Always opens up the door for a longer phone call than it has to be and that's never good. lol How about being up s****s creek without boat Much funnier Not sure if anyone here gets Weatherbell, but apparently Bastardi and D'Aleo are calling for the cold to move in around the 10-15th of the month, with Bastardi opining that it will hold through much of January and February. Their analogs include 2003-2004, 1962-63 and 1968-69. Not holding my breath after their forecast last year! Those analogs have stratospheric support but consider the source. Before the time of many on here... I recognize...somewhat. Sorry everyone for my off topic posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah, exactly...that spells it out right there. I think we mentioned this 20 times in the last 20 days...Will just talked about it this morning. However, you throw in these early season events....and that goes out the window for a lot of people. Just part of the progression of November to a winter month and March to the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Imagine my surprise when I had to fill in for the New England guy and said it "the outsider way" to a client. Always opens up the door for a longer phone call than it has to be and that's never good. lol Much funnier Those analogs have stratospheric support but consider the source. I recognize...somewhat. Sorry everyone for my off topic posts. LOL, you are in the off topic post mecca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Some great discussion today but the weenies on the bus go round and round, round and round. Not sure if everyone is picking up on this but 12Z runs of the Euro Ens look pretty damn nice as Will and Kevin said. It has been mentioned here many times but what is up with the polar opposite 12Z and 0z run patterns we have witnessed over the past month. Brian 90210 has really been the absolute biggest weenie, bring back Snow NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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