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Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

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I think the only other way we cash in if the plains happen to stay torched is to get a nice -NAO and a more Nino like pattern, ala Dec 2002. But the NAO does not look like it is going to cooperate...could always change 2 weeks down the road, but thus far, I think that scenario is unlikely. Our best chance is probably a gradient pattern and catch a couple shortwaves at the right time.

Yeah I agree with this. The nice thing is that unlike last winter with a GOA death vortex the Pacific is very volatile. Seems like we're reshuffling the deck every 5-7 days. Unfortunately the first two shuffles have given us some ugly hands but it's not an all out disaster.

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Good stuff, and another similarity to last season's -AO period in late jan/early Feb when the same thing happened with the pv displacing towards Greenland. I dont think this is a bad thing to see in the stratosphere during november and dec though, in terms of setting up Jan/Feb. Skiervermont a while back posted the -AO January correlation composite for the lower stratosphere where ideally you want warm anomalies in asia (ie from an SAI signal) with colder anomalies on the atlantic side with the pv displaced there.

December has had a ton of mixed signals going into it like you and many others have mentioned in recent weeks. At times things have looked pretty damn good to me and I got overly optimistic...and other times, like now, it just has not looked great at all. Nothing is written in stone yet with december and im not ready to completely punt it, but regardless of how it turns out, i remain more excited for the jan-feb period.

Yeah I thought that too. I'm going to default to those that have done more research, but Asia torches as 70mb. Perhaps HM means that in the meantime it makes conditions hostile with the vortex there, but the pattern progression favors a -NAO in January.

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Reading the last few pages of this thread is like stumbling into Jonestown a day or two late. Weenie carcasses strewn about everywhere.

FWIW I had 2.5" on the winter post-Boxing day 2010 on the surface of the sun in Northampton and finished with 66". It's not December yet. GFS ensembles actually looked decent in the extended range and I thought it would lighten the mood. Gosh.

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Good stuff, and another similarity to last season's -AO period in late jan/early Feb when the same thing happened with the pv displacing towards Greenland. I dont think this is a bad thing to see in the stratosphere during november and dec though, in terms of setting up Jan/Feb. Skiervermont a while back posted the -AO January correlation composite for the lower stratosphere where ideally you want warm anomalies in asia (ie from an SAI signal) with colder anomalies on the atlantic side with the pv displaced there.

December has had a ton of mixed signals going into it like you and many others have mentioned in recent weeks. At times things have looked pretty damn good to me and I got overly optimistic...and other times, like now, it just has not looked great at all. Nothing is written in stone yet with december and im not ready to completely punt it, but regardless of how it turns out, i remain more excited for the jan-feb period.

Another clue ... the CPC ensemble derived 50hPa level temperature anomalies over the polar regions were over-zealous with the spatial coverage, as well as the scale of anomalous warmth compared to what the means had in its outlook from 4 to 5 days ago. Actually looking considerably tepid compared to then, when a better integrated and deep stablizing vortex was suggested - blocking would have erupted - that whole characteristic has broken down considerably.

What's interesting is that the AO over the past week did actually plummet to -3SD give or take, but unfortunately for winter enthusiasts, at least from the CEFs camp its progged to rise with equal, albeit frustrating panache. I'm hitting that because prior to Jan 1 of any given year, the AO is critical for establishing Dec anomaly distributions.

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In the end, it will all come down to whether we get snow or not as to how the month is perceived.

We don't see people break dancing in this forum when December 1985 is brought up. We got a -4 month and little snow out of an awesome pattern. Even 2000 wasn't that great. Weekend storm brought snow to the interior...but most of the month was cold and snowless...we did get a couple 1-3" events before Xmas though to make it white. That month was even a Gallows Month for Jerry where they didn't get anything from 12/30.

2008 OTOH, as I mentioned before is thought of fondly....simply because we cashed in on our chances. If we were all +1 on the month with 5 inches of snow instead of 25-30 inches, a lot of people would refer to that month as a snowless torch.

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In the end, it will all come down to whether we get snow or not as to how the month is perceived.

We don't see people break dancing in this forum when December 1985 is brought Weekend storm brought snow to the interior...but most of the month was cold and snowless...we did get a couple 1-3" events before Xmas though to make it white. That month was even a Gallows Month for Jerry where they didn't get anything from 12/30.

2008 OTOH, as I mentioned before is thought of fondly....simply because we cashed in on our chances. If we were all +1 on the month with 5 inches of snow instead of 25-30 inches, a lot of people would refer to that month as a snowless torch.

Yeah this is right. Who care if we're -2 or +2 on the month... the issue is simply about whether we can get a storm or two that delivers. Through at least 12/10 the pattern is hostile. Some hope after that but what's the mechanism to dislodge the cold? What pops the PNA ridge? How do we ensure the gradient pattern doesn't favor Chicago for snow lol.

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Yeah this is right. Who care if we're -2 or +2 on the month... the issue is simply about whether we can get a storm or two that delivers. Through at least 12/10 the pattern is hostile. Some hope after that but what's the mechanism to dislodge the cold? What pops the PNA ridge? How do we ensure the gradient pattern doesn't favor Chicago for snow lol.

prefer the cold to shore up lake ice before the snow if it ever snows again.

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Weeklies are going to come in quite cold and stormy this evening. Can't wait to see them

Honestly you should probably try to add to the conversation here. No one is overly optimistic or overly pessimistic. Right now we're in sort of a holding pattern and know that we have some opportunities ahead post 12/10.

Your posts on the pattern change have been abysmal.

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Honestly you should probably try to add to the conversation here. No one is overly optimistic or overly pessimistic. Right now we're in sort of a holding pattern and know that we have some opportunities ahead post 12/10.

Your posts on the pattern change have been abysmal.

I'm overly pessimistic and right :devilsmiley:

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This is why I said back in early November during that snowstorm that it was almost impossible to keep snowpack intact until at LEAST late November...but really you need to get into the 2nd week of December. In early November we had highs in the 42F range and it was like -8 departures for ORH on the high. 42F will make fairly quick work of non-glaciated snowpack.

In late November you can start to at least see plausible scenarios where snow pack may last. You get a snow event and then rip in a -12 departure airmass for 5 or 6 days to buy you some time while climo cools more. Even then its very tough and only a couple times in the past have we managed to keep November snow pack into December as part of the base that builds for winter.

But realistically its the 2nd week of December when snow will stick around for the long haul. Even for most of the interior.

It seems like the exposure aspect comes into play as well for snow preservation as North facing areas in town have 100% snowcover while south/east and west facing areas have little to no cover.

Is there a real influential difference between the sun angle on November 27th and December 21st as far as it relates to melting snow?

The sun angle seemed to keep snow from accumualting on pavement on monday in conjunction with marginal temperatures around 32.5F. Hell i'll take snow that does not stick to pavement all winter long, I get to enjoy it without shoveling.

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