Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Does everything get pushed back or do we just kinda have a meh December? HM was talking about a christmas warmup...so is our window of opportunity closing? it's actually looking quite objectively like there will never be a winter again - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 My favorite part of snow events is watching it fall. I love to build up snow pack too, but that is still secondary for to watching the snow come down and being out in it. Most early season events fail to keep the snow pack anyway for more than a couple days. Even early December events aren't particularly durable unless they drop a lot of snow (say greater than 8 inches). Mid-December (around the 10th and beyond) seems to be climatologically when our snow pack can start sticking around weeks at a time or possibly most of the winter if the pattern is chilly. Yeah for me the thrill is tracking the storm, then watching/ having it rip, and then shoveling, playing, nude frontal angels in it etc. I am a snowpack hound too, but I do realize its pretty early to sustain it. The folks that missed the past 2 storms certainly aren't glad they didn't get snow because it would melt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 My favorite part of snow events is watching it fall. I love to build up snow pack too, but that is still secondary for to watching the snow come down and being out in it. Most early season events fail to keep the snow pack anyway for more than a couple days. Even early December events aren't particularly durable unless they drop a lot of snow (say greater than 8 inches). Mid-December (around the 10th and beyond) seems to be climatologically when our snow pack can start sticking around weeks at a time or possibly most of the winter if the pattern is chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Does everything get pushed back or do we just kinda have a meh December? HM was talking about a christmas warmup...so is our window of opportunity closing? I could see us not having that good of a month if we don't cash in on a couple good chances. But I do think we will have at least a couple good chances or windows of opportunity. A lot of it is about perception. December 2008 is probably the best example...that month was +1 for temperatures and it actually had several torches mixed in with the cold shots. But we cashed in on our opportunities having the great back to back SWFEs Dec 19-21 and then we got a nice little clipper-redeveloper on 12/31. BOS had over 25" of snow that month and ORH over 30" (to go with an epic ice storm) all while having like 3 or 4 different 50F+ torches that month and the month overall averging +1. It felt wintry because of the snow events. We made the most of the windows in the otherwise somewhat mild pattern. It was a gradient pattern...a little more NW/SE that month than N/S. The N plains were cold which I think is the key...get that cold air source close enough so that we can have some legit opportunities. I think if the N plains stays torched, then we can punt December. But I don't think they will stay torched (though certainly early on they will be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah for me the thrill is tracking the storm, then watching/ having it rip, and then shoveling, playing, nude frontal angels in it etc. I am a snowpack hound too, but I do realize its pretty early to sustain it. The folks that missed the past 2 storms certainly aren't glad they didn't get snow because it would melt lol Don't forget telling everyone there's still hours and hours of snow to go when the stars are coming out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Well there is always the thrill of watching it snow 185 inches at 16K in California, ya know where Bigfoot lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I could see us not having that good of a month if we don't cash in on a couple good chances. But I do think we will have at least a couple good chances or windows of opportunity. A lot of it is about perception. December 2008 is probably the best example...that month was +1 for temperatures and it actually had several torches mixed in with the cold shots. But we cashed in on our opportunities having the great back to back SWFEs Dec 19-21 and then we got a nice little clipper-redeveloper on 12/31. BOS had over 25" of snow that month and ORH over 30" (to go with an epic ice storm) all while having like 3 or 4 different 50F+ torches that month and the month overall averging +1. It felt wintry because of the snow events. We made the most of the windows in the otherwise somewhat mild pattern. It was a gradient pattern...a little more NW/SE that month than N/S. The N plains were cold which I think is the key...get that cold air source close enough so that we can have some legit opportunities. I think if the N plains stays torched, then we can punt December. But I don't think they will stay torched (though certainly early on they will be) Agreed. Model signals look pretty good for spilling some cold into N Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 OP euro may be trying to flush the vortex d8-9 and beyond. +nao but a weaker vortex appears to be allowing enough pna to keep us on the good side of the gradient. Ironically per today's op 12/10 may be a good start date for a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 OP euro may be trying to flush the vortex d8-9 and beyond. +nao but a weaker vortex appears to be allowing enough pna to keep us on the good side of the gradient. Ironically per today's op 12/10 may be a good start date for a better pattern. And goes right thru to 12/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Does everything get pushed back or do we just kinda have a meh December? HM was talking about a christmas warmup...so is our window of opportunity closing? The Christmas warm-up, at least in my mind, was largely based upon a normal progression of tropical forcing as model guidance had depicted a few weeks ago. The MJO was originally progged to be entering phases 1-2 for early December, then propagating into p3 by late December, which would've meant higher chance for a torch. Now it's apparent the MJO isn't cooperating and it's likely to lollygag around the COD for the next week or so, then make some progression toward phase 1/2, which by the second half of December, are colder phases. Since the warm-period's occurring now as the whole MJO timing has changed, the Christmas torch isn't going to occur unless we just continue a terrible pattern through New Years. Current -OLR anomalies near the dateline are fairly favorable, and certainly way better than last year. Additionally we've got the AO on our side, the NAO is unlikely to remain positive for a long duration given the state of the arctic, and if we can eventually get some tropical forcing help, we'd be in good shape for Dec 15-30 period. This isn't a bad map IMO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 And goes right thru to 12/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 OP euro may be trying to flush the vortex d8-9 and beyond. +nao but a weaker vortex appears to be allowing enough pna to keep us on the good side of the gradient. Ironically per today's op 12/10 may be a good start date for a better pattern. Famous last words ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah for me the thrill is tracking the storm, then watching/ having it rip, and then shoveling, playing, nude frontal angels in it etc. I am a snowpack hound too, but I do realize its pretty early to sustain it. The folks that missed the past 2 storms certainly aren't glad they didn't get snow because it would melt lol I though you called for snowpack lasting from now until spring? Even with "cold" temperatures near 40F, the snow here is still metling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The Christmas warm-up, at least in my mind, was largely based upon a normal progression of tropical forcing as model guidance had depicted a few weeks ago. The MJO was originally progged to be entering phases 1-2 for early December, then propagating into p3 by late December, which would've meant higher chance for a torch. Now it's apparent the MJO isn't cooperating and it's likely to lollygag around the COD for the next week or so, then make some progression toward phase 1/2, which by the second half of December, are colder phases. Since the warm-period's occurring now as the whole MJO timing has changed, the Christmas torch isn't going to occur unless we just continue a terrible pattern through New Years. Current -OLR anomalies near the dateline are fairly favorable, and certainly way better than last year. Additionally we've got the AO on our side, the NAO is unlikely to remain positive for a long duration given the state of the arctic, and if we can eventually get some tropical forcing help, we'd be in good shape for Dec 15-30 period. This isn't a bad map IMO: Unfortunately the whole picture is more complicated than MJO, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Good read from Lundberg on November's nationwide dryness-25-50% of normal for the large majority of the eastern 2/3 of the US... http://www.accuweath...the-sto/2134112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 OP euro may be trying to flush the vortex d8-9 and beyond. +nao but a weaker vortex appears to be allowing enough pna to keep us on the good side of the gradient. Ironically per today's op 12/10 may be a good start date for a better pattern. Can't trust any model's extended, more so than typical stochastic output based upon recent performance ... that said, the D9 operational Euro "looks" like a +PNA rolling through the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I though you called for snowpack lasting from now until spring? Even with "cold" temperatures near 40F, the snow here is still metling away. This is why I said back in early November during that snowstorm that it was almost impossible to keep snowpack intact until at LEAST late November...but really you need to get into the 2nd week of December. In early November we had highs in the 42F range and it was like -8 departures for ORH on the high. 42F will make fairly quick work of non-glaciated snowpack. In late November you can start to at least see plausible scenarios where snow pack may last. You get a snow event and then rip in a -12 departure airmass for 5 or 6 days to buy you some time while climo cools more. Even then its very tough and only a couple times in the past have we managed to keep November snow pack into December as part of the base that builds for winter. But realistically its the 2nd week of December when snow will stick around for the long haul. Even for most of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 I could see us not having that good of a month if we don't cash in on a couple good chances. But I do think we will have at least a couple good chances or windows of opportunity. A lot of it is about perception. December 2008 is probably the best example...that month was +1 for temperatures and it actually had several torches mixed in with the cold shots. But we cashed in on our opportunities having the great back to back SWFEs Dec 19-21 and then we got a nice little clipper-redeveloper on 12/31. BOS had over 25" of snow that month and ORH over 30" (to go with an epic ice storm) all while having like 3 or 4 different 50F+ torches that month and the month overall averging +1. It felt wintry because of the snow events. We made the most of the windows in the otherwise somewhat mild pattern. It was a gradient pattern...a little more NW/SE that month than N/S. The N plains were cold which I think is the key...get that cold air source close enough so that we can have some legit opportunities. I think if the N plains stays torched, then we can punt December. But I don't think they will stay torched (though certainly early on they will be) Pretty much sums it up. When the pattern flips to more gradient like, we tend to cash in rather fast and furiously, so I think something like that is hard to see 2-4 weeks out. It's possible we just have bad luck in timing and the cold never gets much past the US/CAN border, but if the nrn Plains can chill off...I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This polar vortex has been strong and continues to be strong. The models were originally calling for a *modest" wave 2 response (key word is modest), which was correct and then a wave 1. The problem with the original forecasts is that they weren't really seeing how strong the wave 1 would be since the response would be the first actual coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere (the -WPO anomaly has been underneath generally COLDER than normal temperatures in the stratosphere here, despite the weak ridging). The wave 1 is actually killing the -NAO from building because it forces the high PV to consolidate toward Greenland: http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng Initially the wave 2 split looked good and it would have gave room for the -NAO thumb ridge. Even if this happened, it still wasn't going to be enough for the Mid Atlantic... but now with the oncoming wave 1 being even stronger and faster, it is forcing the PV back to Greenland. NAO is going to be ineffective for a while. Good stuff, and another similarity to last season's -AO period in late jan/early Feb when the same thing happened with the pv displacing towards Greenland. I dont think this is a bad thing to see in the stratosphere during november and dec though, in terms of setting up Jan/Feb. Skiervermont a while back posted the -AO January correlation composite for the lower stratosphere where ideally you want warm anomalies in asia (ie from an SAI signal) with colder anomalies on the atlantic side with the pv displaced there. December has had a ton of mixed signals going into it like you and many others have mentioned in recent weeks. At times things have looked pretty damn good to me and I got overly optimistic...and other times, like now, it just has not looked great at all. Nothing is written in stone yet with december and im not ready to completely punt it, but regardless of how it turns out, i remain more excited for the jan-feb period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Pretty much sums it up. When the pattern flips to more gradient like, we tend to cash in rather fast and furiously, so I think something like that is hard to see 2-4 weeks out. It's possible we just have bad luck in timing and the cold never gets much past the US/CAN border, but if the nrn Plains can chill off...I'll take my chances. winter of our dreams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I feel like Denzel Washington in that movie Deja Vu. I swear we were talking about SWFE Fest 2012 at about this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I feel like Denzel Washington in that movie Deja Vu. I swear we were talking about SWFE Fest 2012 at about this time last year. and the endless "pattern change starts in 10-15 days".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Pretty much sums it up. When the pattern flips to more gradient like, we tend to cash in rather fast and furiously, so I think something like that is hard to see 2-4 weeks out. It's possible we just have bad luck in timing and the cold never gets much past the US/CAN border, but if the nrn Plains can chill off...I'll take my chances. I think the only other way we cash in if the plains happen to stay torched is to get a nice -NAO and a more Nino like pattern, ala Dec 2002. But the NAO does not look like it is going to cooperate...could always change 2 weeks down the road, but thus far, I think that scenario is unlikely. Our best chance is probably a gradient pattern and catch a couple shortwaves at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is getting dire...you can tell. 2011-2012 redux. Disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is getting dire...you can tell. 2011-2012 redux. Disaster You can always snuggle with your girlfriend and watch "The notebook." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is getting dire...you can tell. 2011-2012 redux. Disaster This looks very different from December 2011. What a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 this is why i should stick to short range...this stuff is a complete joke sometimes (no offense to those who try to do it). almost historic to maybe a chance at a favorable SWF pattern in just a few days time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 You can always snuggle with your girlfriend and watch "The notebook." lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Always so easy to get those two to bite, they're almost as bad as me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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