Looking towards the beginning of December

[CoastalWx]

That 240h image is not bad and a lot of mid-winter breakdowns start like this and have this look. The next thing after this sequence would be a stretching of the vorticity and a likely migration away from Canada/Greenland. So, I'm excited for down the road...but no one wants ot hear that right now.

This type of configuration takes a while (top-down warmings) to affect the troposphere. When the next wave 2 occurs, which way will the vortex head? Each wave is going to take a stab at it until it eventually falls apart.

It's interesting to watch. First time I've really paid more than a casual interest in it. One thing I've noted is the the EP flux in the trop has been at times pointed towards the poles, but it's quite the opposite in the stratosphere. I'd like to see that come around a bit.

[NorthShoreWx]

BTW decent setup for $80 http://cspoutdoors.com/snmetoset.html

Its only a 24" ruler. Go big or go home

[Clinch Leatherwood]

i started it by saying lets just close our eyes and fast forward a couple weeks. wasn't too imply the remainder of DJFM is doomed. lol.

I think there are people looking for a repeat of a few years ago when winter locked in for weeks at a time and we had snow after snow.

JMHO but I think the initial change that comes towards mid December is going to be towards normal/cold with cold high pressures migrating across the country followed by milder weather. Maybe towards January things slow down a bit, but in the interim I think we're going to have to contend with cold/snow chances, milder, rinse and repeat.

[NorEaster27]

pacific flood gates are open

looks like an epic torch for all. Another awful Xmas for skiing, going to be sad.

[CapturedNature]

Its only a 24" ruler. Go big or go home

I was noticing that but I like how it has the tenths marked off. I have a meter/inches stick that I got from the NWS about 20 years ago when I became a coop observer. It's 39" and has centimeters on one side and inches on the other side broken down into tenths. What I like about it is that is has the inch measurements above the line so you can clearly see how much snow it's measuring instead of covering it up.

I'd love to get a new one before my old one wears out - anyone know where you can get one?

[MJO812]

I'm starting to become more bearish. You guys still might to do ok. NYC south is starting to look

Winter cancel...... Jk

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if Saturday is one of those deals where west of the coastal front and higher spots like ORH hills and Kevin squeeze out a bit more QPF. The flow aloft sort of looks like that. Of course models are kind of dry, but it's one of those deals where I would not be shocked if it occurred.

[Brian5671]

I'd like to see some moisture around these parts-awfully dry the past month with little to nothing to track after 11/7 event--heck even a lakes cutter would be good to track at this point...getting excited over a .05 event ain't going to cut it....

[CoastalWx]

I'd like to see some moisture around these parts-awfully dry the past month with little to nothing to track after 11/7 event--heck even a lakes cutter would be good to track at this point...getting excited over a .05 event ain't going to cut it....

We are due for dry years. 60" of liquid equivalent a year won't keep occurring. I'm not surprised.

[Guvna]

The ebb and flow of emotions the last few weeks has been much more than usual. Even from some of the mets. High on cold and snow in the afternoon and them choking themselves with mouse cords in the morning. You stay the course and don't fluctuate with the models. Stay even keeled and don't flip flop. Nothing has changed yet you'd think we were looking at last December from these posts this morning

You don't have a wireless mouse yet????? Is this what your KFS SuperComputer looks like with you at the helm????

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder if Saturday is one of those deals where west of the coastal front and higher spots like ORH hills and Kevin squeeze out a bit more QPF. The flow aloft sort of looks like that. Of course models are kind of dry, but it's one of those deals where I would not be shocked if it occurred.

Yeah the models have around 20 knots out of the east at 950mb while NE at 10 knots closer to the sfc...that would definitely be a pretty good flow to try and squeeze out a bit of extra precip on the east slopes.

[KEITH L.I]

looks like an epic torch for all. Another awful Xmas for skiing, going to be sad.

ok..your looking at a map from 11/29 and saying a month from now it will be warm..ok..plus, a white christmas is a one out of every ten year deal in NYC..NE is much different..norm for me is seeing grass and dirt on Christmas day

[Sugarloaf1989]

Still a bit of snowcover remaining here:

My neighbors pond is 95% frozen over with 2" of ice in the shaded far shore with some snowcover on it:

[Damage In Tolland]

I wonder if Saturday is one of those deals where west of the coastal front and higher spots like ORH hills and Kevin squeeze out a bit more QPF. The flow aloft sort of looks like that. Of course models are kind of dry, but it's one of those deals where I would not be shocked if it occurred.

Lol one of those rare SE upslope flows

[Damage In Tolland]

You don't have a wireless mouse yet????? Is this what your KFS SuperComputer looks like with you at the helm????

Well most folks don't even use a computer anymore. Mostly iMacs , iPads and iPhones. But my office still has us all using desktops and mice with cords. So that was what made me think of that

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm hearing and seeing forecasts of upper 30's and 40's tomorrow. When in reality hills are in upper 20's and valley and coast are low- mid 30's. makes you wonder what some folks are doing in the field

[Typhoon Tip]

despite how bad the global indicators are clearly being metaphysically driven to verify ...haha, at least for a lot of interior SNE Saturday may come across as postcard like with festive type flakes in the air - may even whiten the ground to an inch or two.

it's all an extended warm fropa, eventually flooding the area in the insult, but at least for day the winter weather and holiday enthusiasts sense something more than a daydream.

yeah, as for the MA .... if I lived down there i'd turn attention to hobbies and other stuff and bide time - this seems unthinkable after last year that any period would do this but, hey - we all know the climate is a mean of the crazies.

[mfastx]

I just graduated from BU in 2011! I'm over at BC now (Kind of a traitor). How do you like the campus?

Cool! Haha yeah you are, but it's okay, lol. I love it here, and I love New England.

Actually the first snow event registered 0.4" at Logan airport with up to 4" on the west side of Boston and then Tuesday's system did indeed register a trace in Boston.

There's always someone who visit the gallows before winter even starts.

Tuesday's system registered a trace at BOS? News to me, I saw a few snowflakes in the air but that's about it. Just rain mostly. Boston kinda got the shaft with that one.

[CoastalWx]

That's a heck of a gradient pattern on the GEFS heading past day 11. Polar high coming out of Canada near the Rockies and another high centered over the SE means battle ground. Of course the battle ground probably will be between our area and srn Canada...hopefully pushing south with time.

[ORH_wxman]

Cool! Haha yeah you are, but it's okay, lol. I love it here, and I love New England.

Tuesday's system registered a trace at BOS? News to me, I saw a few snowflakes in the air but that's about it. Just rain mostly. Boston kinda got the shaft with that one.

All you need is flakes to register a trace.

[N. OF PIKE]

I really like ryans honesty about the upcoming pattern, and adam's as well, out the door are the 12/5 and 12/10 periods for wintry wx and now were hoping cold in the plains heads east In some transient way but it seems we may need to punt december until xmas) anyway, yes maybe we can time a event w a pna spike but blizz forget about snow cover as the pattern flips in a few days and I just hope everyone stays bullish about mid winter. But ya punting dec blows, no need to spin it,esp when things lookd good 2 weeks ago

[Sugarloaf1989]

All you need is flakes to register a trace.

This is true, just ask the marketing team at any major ski area

[CT Rain]

The GEFS isn't so bad beyond day 10. The negative height anomalies are a bit farther west than what the 00z Euro Ensembles had so you're more looking at troughiness southwest of PANC which can help pop some +PNA ridging. As long as we're not looking at a death vortex (which I don't think we are) sending a monster Pac jet into the NW US flooding us with warmth there is some potential.

Either way around 12/10 it does look like the cold starts oozing down the east slope of the Rockies into the northern Plains. The ensembles have been showing that consistently. That does set up a Nina-like gradient pattern that we may be able to cash in on post 12/10. We may have to deal with a wet cutter first before a more snowy SWFE emerges.

Bottom line pattern change around 12/10 may be premature. While things will be getting a bit better we could have an ugly stretch in there with a storm track that's just too far west. I am excited about mid and late month... just can't rush things. Pacific will change slowly with little MJO forcing.

[Damage In Tolland]

I really like ryans honesty about the upcoming pattern, and adam's as well, out the door are the 12/5 and 12/10 periods for wintry wx and now were hoping cold in the plains heads east In some transient way but it seems we may need to punt december until xmas) anyway, yes maybe we can time a event w a pna spike but blizz forget about snow cover as the pattern flips in a few days and I just hope everyone stays bullish about mid winter. But ya punting dec blows, no need to spin it,esp when things lookd good 2 weeks ago

With the exception of solid snow cover everything you posted is incorrect. Noone said anything about writing the month off. In fact there's several wintry chances over the next 10 days. Did you actually read all the posts or are you trolling? Nothing has changed

[Sugarloaf1989]

With the exception of solid snow cover everything you posted is incorrect. Noone said anything about writing the month off. In fact there's several wintry chances over the next 10 days. Did you actually read all the posts or are you trolling? Nothing has changed

With temps forecast into the mid 50's for early next week any snow we have/get in the near term will be wiped out by early next week, so what's the point?

It would be better to get snow and have sustained cold temps to boot rather than snow followed by 50F+ weather.

[N. OF PIKE]

We need to get pattern improvements inside of ten days, until then I guess our next hope is that we don't have to punt december and the day 10 pattern changes eventually get inside day 7

[Damage In Tolland]

With temps forecast into the mid 50's for early next week any snow we have/get in the near term will be wiped out by early next week, so what's the point?

It would be better to get snow and have sustained cold temps to boot rather than snow followed by 50F+ weather.

Theres a bunch of people on this board.. Particularly along the coast and in Eastern Mass who would disagree with you. I speak for me and them when I say snow and then having it melt is better than getting no snow at all.

[Damage In Tolland]

We need to get pattern improvements inside of ten days, until then I guess our next hope is that we don't have to punt december and the day 10 pattern changes eventually get inside day 7

Are you drunk?

[ORH_wxman]

Theres a bunch of people on this board.. Particularly along the coast and in Eastern Mass who would disagree with you. I speak for me and them when I say snow and then having it melt is better than getting no snow at all.

My favorite part of snow events is watching it fall. I love to build up snow pack too, but that is still secondary for to watching the snow come down and being out in it.

Most early season events fail to keep the snow pack anyway for more than a couple days. Even early December events aren't particularly durable unless they drop a lot of snow (say greater than 8 inches). Mid-December (around the 10th and beyond) seems to be climatologically when our snow pack can start sticking around weeks at a time or possibly most of the winter if the pattern is chilly.

[OSUmetstud]

Does everything get pushed back or do we just kinda have a meh December? HM was talking about a christmas warmup...so is our window of opportunity closing?