CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 The problem is that the -NAO that was modeled was more transient ridging than a true block. With a rather hostile Pac would lilke to see something sustained happening in the N Atl. Even something like that or an east based -NAO can help. It may not protect us from a cutter..but perhaps could have forced a little front end snow or mixed? If you look at the more long range stuff like GWO and AAM, they do sort of remain in favorable phases for us, but of course the orientation of all these 500mb height fields is key. And while there looks like a good wave 1 perturbation in the stratosphere, it seems like it regained its composure again with the temps dropping and a more circular circulation at 70mb. Perhaps it will need a series of bombardments. Of course that stuff is more out in la la land when it comes to figuring out what it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 2011-2012 part 2? Well we've seen plenty back to back horrible winters in the 1980's and 1990's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 The ebb and flow of emotions the last few weeks has been much more than usual. Even from some of the mets. High on cold and snow in the afternoon and them choking themselves with mouse cords in the morning. You stay the course and don't fluctuate with the models. Stay even keeled and don't flip flop. Nothing has changed yet you'd think we were looking at last December from these posts this morning I haven't changed my tune. I've said for a week now wait until after the 10th. Perhaps that too is early. I like Phil's idea. Just close your eyes for a couple of weeks..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Who knows maybe by 12/10 ish we can get a SWFE. Pattern by that point gets a little more favorable but it could certainly tip ugly. it would be a lot more concerning if we were nearing 1/1 instead of 12/1. at least we knew up through 12/5-12/8 ish was out the window for the most part anyway with just transient cool shots and maybe some minor interior events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Stay the course. Remain positive and focused. It's built. It will come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How about we all do ourselves a big favor and just cancel December already. All along I said this was going to be a horrible month with the cold and snow to the west of us. Maybe midmonth things turn around but I have doubts. The latest euro weeklies should be interesting tonight . I just don't know how much theylonger can keep going showing ridging developing out west. Good lord, some of these posts are giving this place a vibe of "last days in hitler's bunker" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I haven't changed my tune. I've said for a week now wait until after the 10th. Perhaps that too is early. I like Phil's idea. Just close your eyes for a couple of weeks..lol. Yeah I wasn't talking about you. You haven't been flopping around. Although I don't think the next 2 weeks are tossed at all. I see potential for 2-3 wintry events sandwiched in between mild up and cold downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah I wasn't talking about you. You haven't been flopping around. Although I don't think the next 2 weeks are tossed at all. I see potential for 2-3 wintry events sandwiched in between mild up and cold downs names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Some of these H5 anomalies in the AO region may be on the line such that a wiggle here and there has an effect on the text index value I suppose. To be honest, I never look at the text value much. I'm a visual person, but that's just me. It's probabl partly to do with the tropics too. I wonder if that Typhoon can have an effect on the PNA down the road. Yes, I opined on that yesterday - but I looked at the GFS ensembles from that part of the tropical world and they recurve and damp the TC so violently, absorbing it into an overwhelmingly powerful pre-existing R-wave coupling that it just got lost. I haven't checked today. Visual vs text value - it depends on what you use. The "visual" aspect can work, if you can mentally differentiate/process the spatial and temporal propagation of events in the atmosphere across all the ensembles, and come up with a "mean mind's eye". Most people can to some lesser or greater ability, and figure ...eh, probably looks something like x,y,z or a,b,c. But counterbalancing those conclusions by adding in the text value is powerful. The AO at CPC just abruptly jolted up, and the D8-10 operational mean of the ECM and GFS also flipped violently on the 00z. At least from one visual source, it actually agrees with that former text suggestion. It's a blind siding to those thinking that Dec 10 roll-back would happen. It won't if that verifies, period! but again, I think it is all dubious ...despite the largeness of it (spatially involving) until there is more continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah I wasn't talking about you. You haven't been flopping around. Although I don't think the next 2 weeks are tossed at all. I see potential for 2-3 wintry events sandwiched in between mild up and cold downs Funny since I was actually more bullish on snow shots in early December. I thought we had some potential but that certainly isn't going to happen. Nothing fun before 12/10 I don't think but even that is tenuous right now. The pattern is just ugly. Not much more to say about it to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 names The guilty know who they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The guilty know who they are. it's all in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Meh.... Very glad we are having this conversation now and not in late December. There is always the chance for a wall to wall sucky winter but that is rare. I think we are getting set up for a good or great stretch at just the right time. I also think the angst is building very early this year because of last year. I am happy to wait for mid December for the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm starting to become more bearish. You guys still might to do ok. NYC south is starting to look I agree. This pattern never looked good for the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Accuweather says the winter pattern was going to be great for the Mid Atlantic.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'll wait until Late December for some wintry action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'll wait until Late December for some wintry action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Seriously, the way the Stratosphere is warming up is slowly, but it'll surely get to the adequate level for the Polar Vortex to split. That's why I'm expecting a 20 day lag for the Initial effects to make its' presence known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 20 days from December 7th that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm caving on the torch. 55-60 possible Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 anyone know of a good archive for stratosphere data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 maybe the thread title should be changed to "looking past the beginning of December"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Funny since I was actually more bullish on snow shots in early December. I thought we had some potential but that certainly isn't going to happen. Nothing fun before 12/10 I don't think but even that is tenuous right now. The pattern is just ugly. Not much more to say about it to be honest. the pattern is always ugly it seems for the past 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Accuweather says the winter pattern was going to be great for the Mid Atlantic.................... What a joke. The folks in the Mid Atlantic subforum have a good handle on it and they say it doesn't look good (I like Matt's outlook). We also in this subforum have stated that it was all about New England and the Mid Atlantic doesn't look good. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 the pattern is always ugly it seems for the past 2 years This polar vortex has been strong and continues to be strong. The models were originally calling for a *modest" wave 2 response (key word is modest), which was correct and then a wave 1. The problem with the original forecasts is that they weren't really seeing how strong the wave 1 would be since the response would be the first actual coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere (the -WPO anomaly has been underneath generally COLDER than normal temperatures in the stratosphere here, despite the weak ridging). The wave 1 is actually killing the -NAO from building because it forces the high PV to consolidate toward Greenland: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ecpv.php?alert=1&level=600&forecast=all&lng=eng Initially the wave 2 split looked good and it would have gave room for the -NAO thumb ridge. Even if this happened, it still wasn't going to be enough for the Mid Atlantic... but now with the oncoming wave 1 being even stronger and faster, it is forcing the PV back to Greenland. NAO is going to be ineffective for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 anyone know of a good archive for stratosphere data? This has good current stuff http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html CPC has some good stuff to. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/ This is some archived stuff http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 This polar vortex has been strong and continues to be strong. The models were originally calling for a *modest" wave 2 response (key word is modest), which was correct and then a wave 1. The problem with the original forecasts is that they weren't really seeing how strong the wave 1 would be since the response would be the first actual coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere (the -WPO anomaly has been underneath generally COLDER than normal temperatures in the stratosphere here, despite the weak ridging). The wave 1 is actually killing the -NAO from building because it forces the high PV to consolidate toward Greenland: http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng Initially the wave 2 split looked good and it would have gave room for the -NAO thumb ridge. Even if this happened, it still wasn't going to be enough for the Mid Atlantic... but now with the oncoming wave 1 being even stronger and faster, it is forcing the PV back to Greenland. NAO is going to be ineffective for a while. You can see the response in the zonal wind chart on the Berlin site. It was going negative, but now postive again as the vortex tries to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 What a joke. The folks in the Mid Atlantic subforum have a good handle on it and they say it doesn't look good (I like Matt's outlook). We also in this subforum have stated that it was all about New England and the Mid Atlantic doesn't look good. Oh well... I don't use there site for anything, Especially anything from the "Other" HM over there, He is JB's replacement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 You can see the response in the zonal wind chart on the Berlin site. It was going negative, but now postive again as the vortex tries to come back. That 240h image is not bad and a lot of mid-winter breakdowns start like this and have this look. The next thing after this sequence would be a stretching of the vorticity and a likely migration away from Canada/Greenland. So, I'm excited for down the road...but no one wants ot hear that right now. This type of configuration takes a while (top-down warmings) to affect the troposphere. When the next wave 2 occurs, which way will the vortex head? Each wave is going to take a stab at it until it eventually falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 There is snow on the ground here and winter is over? When did it start? Oh wait, it's still fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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