ChrisM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Just go over Niagara Falls in a barrel. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I'm still with HM. Thinking New Eng will be salvageable thru the next 10 days till cd pattern can entrench Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 let's see if we can get three days in a row with +10 departures starting sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How about we all do ourselves a big favor and just cancel December already. All along I said this was going to be a horrible month with the cold and snow to the west of us. Maybe midmonth things turn around but I have doubts. The latest euro weeklies should be interesting tonight . I just don't know how much theylonger can keep going showing ridging developing out west. in a related story...Canadian authorities are investigating claims that a man jumped from the top of the Space Needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 yeah, i understand what you mean, but this back and forth across this particular last 24 hours is bigger than that. it's almost physically impossible and I mean that. something strange is going on. That much mass-field characterization completely reversing doesn't happen in real time - it's as though take the last week's worth of telly derivatives and throw it all out because it has been entirley "miss"guidance all along. frustration, too Some of these H5 anomalies in the AO region may be on the line such that a wiggle here and there has an effect on the text index value I suppose. To be honest, I never look at the text value much. I'm a visual person, but that's just me. It's probabl partly to do with the tropics too. I wonder if that Typhoon can have an effect on the PNA down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Jesus could the Euro Ens mean look any uglier through D15. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 brutal for the next two weeks http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2_6z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Just go over Niagara Falls in a barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Weenies need to be 5ppd. Tip is warming up his toaster already after looking at this mornings multi-agency suite of winter offputting data. I think the pattern will be in flux after the 10th. We've got to deal with about 7 days of people wanting to cancel winter before that becomes more obvious. First cold passage around the 10th-13th, with at least a return to net normal at that point although until we can get rid of the GOA vortex and build a real ridge the cold is going to be trapped mainly north of 38/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top. I hope. I'm worried about the Euro ens. Doesn't seem that we have much to shake up the Pac and start over with a dead MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top. Like I said yesterday...maybe we wait until closer to mid month, but getting the cold into the Plains is step 1 and that will happen. I'm not even going to mention anything historic or noteworthy...just a change to more December like opportunities which is all we can ask. Stop setting the bar high and you won't be launching yourself off the highest building in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It's been back and forth. All I need to see is the H5 pattern and know that we are on a break after this weekend. Every time we get a ridge out west, it just propogates eastward so we end up torching eventually after a cold shot...we need the big GOA low to retrograde a bit OR we need something in the Atlantic to flatten out the height lines in the northeast....whether it a big NAO block or just a huge vortex somewhere in NE Canada/southern Davis straight like in Dec '07...at least that would help produce a gradient pattern. The problem is we have a vortex north of Hudson bay for a lot of this upcoming period which is putrid and gives us no leeway when the PAC decides to act up on us. We very frequently have snowy patterns with a GOA low (Dec 2007, 2008, 1981, 1975, 1970, etc), but the Atlantic can't be horrendous like it is in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I hope. I'm worried about the Euro ens. Doesn't seem that we have much to shake up the Pac and start over with a dead MJO. I'm starting to become more bearish. You guys still might to do ok. NYC south is starting to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It's so funny how one negative post from a met turns into a pig pile. Everyone just jumps on and then Forky sees an opening and just dives in the middle. Things are not as bad as folks make this out to be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 I hope. I'm worried about the Euro ens. Doesn't seem that we have much to shake up the Pac and start over with a dead MJO. I'm not counting on that. Just hoping the natural progression of colder air into the US and the PV on our side of the pole can help out. At least it appears it will not go into the IO anytime soon like what was hinted at. So, it may be weak...but it's not unfavorable...at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 let's see if we can get three days in a row with +10 departures starting sunday You should have no trouble seeing those departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Every time we get a ridge out west, it just propogates eastward so we end up torching eventually after a cold shot...we need the big GOA low to retrograde a bit OR we need something in the Atlantic to flatten out the height lines in the northeast....whether it a big NAO block or just a huge vortex somewhere in NE Canada/southern Davis straight like in Dec '07...at least that would help produce a gradient pattern. The problem is we have a vortex north of Hudson bay for a lot of this upcoming period which is putrid and gives us no leeway when the PAC decides to act up on us. We very frequently have snowy patterns with a GOA low (Dec 2007, 2008, 1981, 1975, 1970, etc), but the Atlantic can't be horrendous like it is in the next 10 days. Yeah it's too bad we lost the -NAO. That would have been great to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 You know this aftn the ensembles will look more favorable and weenies will be back on the bus again...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Like I said yesterday...maybe we wait until closer to mid month, but getting the cold into the Plains is step 1 and that will happen. I'm not even going to mention anything historic or noteworthy...just a change to more December like oppurtunities which is all we can ask. Stop setting the bar high and you won't be launching yourself off the highest building in town. This is a good point. I do think around 12/10 we setup a pattern that's pretty favorable for storminess with a nice gradient pattern. That said.... we could certainly force some nasty cutters to our west for the days around 12/10. All of that will depend on what the downstream pattern looks like with the N. Atlantic. I'm starting to become more bearish. You guys still might to do ok. NYC south is starting to look Yeah it's getting a bit ugly as the clock ticks down for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah it's too bad we lost the -NAO. That would have been great to have. The problem is that the -NAO that was modeled was more transient ridging than a true block. With a rather hostile Pac would lilke to see something sustained happening in the N Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah it's too bad we lost the -NAO. That would have been great to have. Yeah that would have been golden actually...-NAO/-PNA is probably our best pattern for snow in New England. Assuming we do not have an AK/Bering vortex in the EPO/WPO region which we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top. the weeklies only bust when the call for cold and -NAO. When they call for warm they are spectacular. What a disaster and a bust the first 2 weeks of DEC is going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is a good point. I do think around 12/10 we setup a pattern that's pretty favorable for storminess with a nice gradient pattern. That said.... we could certainly force some nasty cutters to our west for the days around 12/10. All of that will depend on what the downstream pattern looks like with the N. Atlantic. Yeah it's getting a bit ugly as the clock ticks down for the mid atlantic. I could see that too. Maybe we are wrong and we have to wait longer, I really don't have a ton of confidence given the mixed signals. I just like seeing colder air into the Plains, and sometimes those cutters swing the cold air east and sets us up for a SWFE or something like that. Given the last 12 months, I'm keeping expectations modest..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 You know this aftn the ensembles will look more favorable and weenies will be back on the bus again...lol. i started it by saying lets just close our eyes and fast forward a couple weeks. wasn't too imply the remainder of DJFM is doomed. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 You know this aftn the ensembles will look more favorable and weenies will be back on the bus again...lol. The ebb and flow of emotions the last few weeks has been much more than usual. Even from some of the mets. High on cold and snow in the afternoon and them choking themselves with mouse cords in the morning. You stay the course and don't fluctuate with the models. Stay even keeled and don't flip flop. Nothing has changed yet you'd think we were looking at last December from these posts this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yeah that would have been golden actually...-NAO/-PNA is probably our best pattern for snow in New England. Assuming we do not have an AK/Bering vortex in the EPO/WPO region which we don't. Though watching the D14 and D15 euro ens mean lower heights in the GOA is a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I could see that too. Maybe we are wrong and we have to wait longer, I really don't have a ton of confidence given the mixed signals. I just like seeing colder air into the Plains, and sometimes those cutters swing the cold air east and sets us up for a SWFE or something like that. Given the last 12 months, I'm keeping expectations modest..lol. Who knows maybe by 12/10 ish we can get a SWFE. Pattern by that point gets a little more favorable but it could certainly tip ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.