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Looking towards the beginning of December


CoastalWx

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How about we all do ourselves a big favor and just cancel December already. All along I said this was going to be a horrible month with the cold and snow to the west of us. Maybe midmonth things turn around but I have doubts. The latest euro weeklies should be interesting tonight . I just don't know how much theylonger can keep going showing ridging developing out west.

in a related story...Canadian authorities are investigating claims that a man jumped from the top of the Space Needle.

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yeah, i understand what you mean, but this back and forth across this particular last 24 hours is bigger than that. it's almost physically impossible and I mean that. something strange is going on. That much mass-field characterization completely reversing doesn't happen in real time - it's as though take the last week's worth of telly derivatives and throw it all out because it has been entirley "miss"guidance all along.

frustration, too

Some of these H5 anomalies in the AO region may be on the line such that a wiggle here and there has an effect on the text index value I suppose. To be honest, I never look at the text value much. I'm a visual person, but that's just me. It's probabl partly to do with the tropics too. I wonder if that Typhoon can have an effect on the PNA down the road.

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Weenies need to be 5ppd.

Tip is warming up his toaster already after looking at this mornings multi-agency suite of winter offputting data. I think the pattern will be in flux after the 10th. We've got to deal with about 7 days of people wanting to cancel winter before that becomes more obvious.

First cold passage around the 10th-13th, with at least a return to net normal at that point although until we can get rid of the GOA vortex and build a real ridge the cold is going to be trapped mainly north of 38/40

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I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top.

I hope. I'm worried about the Euro ens. Doesn't seem that we have much to shake up the Pac and start over with a dead MJO.

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I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top.

Like I said yesterday...maybe we wait until closer to mid month, but getting the cold into the Plains is step 1 and that will happen.

I'm not even going to mention anything historic or noteworthy...just a change to more December like opportunities which is all we can ask. Stop setting the bar high and you won't be launching yourself off the highest building in town.

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It's been back and forth. All I need to see is the H5 pattern and know that we are on a break after this weekend.

Every time we get a ridge out west, it just propogates eastward so we end up torching eventually after a cold shot...we need the big GOA low to retrograde a bit OR we need something in the Atlantic to flatten out the height lines in the northeast....whether it a big NAO block or just a huge vortex somewhere in NE Canada/southern Davis straight like in Dec '07...at least that would help produce a gradient pattern. The problem is we have a vortex north of Hudson bay for a lot of this upcoming period which is putrid and gives us no leeway when the PAC decides to act up on us.

We very frequently have snowy patterns with a GOA low (Dec 2007, 2008, 1981, 1975, 1970, etc), but the Atlantic can't be horrendous like it is in the next 10 days.

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I hope. I'm worried about the Euro ens. Doesn't seem that we have much to shake up the Pac and start over with a dead MJO.

I'm not counting on that. Just hoping the natural progression of colder air into the US and the PV on our side of the pole can help out. At least it appears it will not go into the IO anytime soon like what was hinted at. So, it may be weak...but it's not unfavorable...at least right now.

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Every time we get a ridge out west, it just propogates eastward so we end up torching eventually after a cold shot...we need the big GOA low to retrograde a bit OR we need something in the Atlantic to flatten out the height lines in the northeast....whether it a big NAO block or just a huge vortex somewhere in NE Canada/southern Davis straight like in Dec '07...at least that would help produce a gradient pattern. The problem is we have a vortex north of Hudson bay for a lot of this upcoming period which is putrid and gives us no leeway when the PAC decides to act up on us.

We very frequently have snowy patterns with a GOA low (Dec 2007, 2008, 1981, 1975, 1970, etc), but the Atlantic can't be horrendous like it is in the next 10 days.

Yeah it's too bad we lost the -NAO. That would have been great to have.

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Like I said yesterday...maybe we wait until closer to mid month, but getting the cold into the Plains is step 1 and that will happen.

I'm not even going to mention anything historic or noteworthy...just a change to more December like oppurtunities which is all we can ask. Stop setting the bar high and you won't be launching yourself off the highest building in town.

This is a good point. I do think around 12/10 we setup a pattern that's pretty favorable for storminess with a nice gradient pattern. That said.... we could certainly force some nasty cutters to our west for the days around 12/10. All of that will depend on what the downstream pattern looks like with the N. Atlantic.

I'm starting to become more bearish. You guys still might to do ok. NYC south is starting to look :yikes:

Yeah it's getting a bit ugly as the clock ticks down for the mid atlantic.

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Yeah it's too bad we lost the -NAO. That would have been great to have.

Yeah that would have been golden actually...-NAO/-PNA is probably our best pattern for snow in New England. Assuming we do not have an AK/Bering vortex in the EPO/WPO region which we don't.

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I still think after the 10th things change around, I don't see a glaring reason to think otherwise, and imho...nothing really has changed so some of the joint genocidal posts are over the top.

the weeklies only bust when the call for cold and -NAO. When they call for warm they are spectacular. What a disaster and a bust the first 2 weeks of DEC is going to be

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This is a good point. I do think around 12/10 we setup a pattern that's pretty favorable for storminess with a nice gradient pattern. That said.... we could certainly force some nasty cutters to our west for the days around 12/10. All of that will depend on what the downstream pattern looks like with the N. Atlantic.

Yeah it's getting a bit ugly as the clock ticks down for the mid atlantic.

I could see that too.

Maybe we are wrong and we have to wait longer, I really don't have a ton of confidence given the mixed signals. I just like seeing colder air into the Plains, and sometimes those cutters swing the cold air east and sets us up for a SWFE or something like that. Given the last 12 months, I'm keeping expectations modest..lol.

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You know this aftn the ensembles will look more favorable and weenies will be back on the bus again...lol.

The ebb and flow of emotions the last few weeks has been much more than usual. Even from some of the mets. High on cold and snow in the afternoon and them choking themselves with mouse cords in the morning. You stay the course and don't fluctuate with the models. Stay even keeled and don't flip flop. Nothing has changed yet you'd think we were looking at last December from these posts this morning
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Yeah that would have been golden actually...-NAO/-PNA is probably our best pattern for snow in New England. Assuming we do not have an AK/Bering vortex in the EPO/WPO region which we don't.

Though watching the D14 and D15 euro ens mean lower heights in the GOA is a bit concerning.

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I could see that too.

Maybe we are wrong and we have to wait longer, I really don't have a ton of confidence given the mixed signals. I just like seeing colder air into the Plains, and sometimes those cutters swing the cold air east and sets us up for a SWFE or something like that. Given the last 12 months, I'm keeping expectations modest..lol.

Who knows maybe by 12/10 ish we can get a SWFE. Pattern by that point gets a little more favorable but it could certainly tip ugly.

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