ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 starting to get the same feelings of last year...calls for epic cold followed by nothing but slightly above normal and dry. Mets have already busted by calling for winter to begin December 5th...well..its going to be 60 degrees on that day it appears...and then it was the 10th...and now the warmth holds on until "at least the 15th" meanwhile Alaska is cold and snowy while the CONUS bakes...same story different year. November was well below normal and we had two snow threats that did not even register a trace in Boston. Actually the first snow event registered 0.4" at Logan airport with up to 4" on the west side of Boston and then Tuesday's system did indeed register a trace in Boston. There's always someone who visit the gallows before winter even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Actually the first snow event registered 0.4" at Logan airport with up to 4" on the west side of Boston and then Tuesday's system did indeed register a trace in Boston. There's always someone who visit the gallows before winter even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Ponds had a little more than a crust on them this AM. Impressive to see ponds so close to ice over this early in the season. This has been occuring here too for about the last two weeks and our local pond here at about 800' is keeping ice cover on the northern/shaded areas during the day. It would be nice to start buliding ice, but that will be impossible with temps in the mid 50's early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 looking at the map now... you obviously inflated C'mon Forky. A local webcam captured the entire event. Very localized to Mt Tolland. Winter will be here when it gets here. I don't expect much prior to the 19th or 20th of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 looking at the map now... you obviously inflated Pictures posted back me. I'm sorry for your terrible forecast. Don't worry a local SNE met told me I would get sprinkles or flurries so it could have been worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I noticed that too. Even the standing water in parking lots is frozen. That's the only reminder of winter I have right now. You really need to move. Watch The Snowman, get a big mug of hot cocoa, and put on fuzzy slippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The two pretty large ponds on campus are frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Pictures posted back me. I'm sorry for your terrible forecast. Don't worry a local SNE met told me I would get sprinkles or flurries so it could have been worse Someone needs to invent a snowboard with a built in ruler. Would be an instant hit with weenies and puts photographs in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 SREFs definitelybacked off on their snow probs for >1"...only very small probs now. They do have very high precentages for snow, but its just that it looks to be less than an inch. Euro staying fairly dry (though it finally did show a couple hundreths) seems to be the way the others want to trend. Probably weenie snow on Saturday that doesn't add up to too much with of course the threat for some light freezing drizzle or freezing rain if the lift falls far enough below the SG region. Its pretty darn cold at the surface Saturday morning...it might be tough to erode that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 looking at the map now... you obviously inflated This is untrue as the Mt Tolland area gets massive amounts of snow in the winter. CDOT spends alot of money on snow removal and runs out of places to put the snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 If you are all bored and are looking for some weather, head on over toi the Western Forum. Huge snow event about to unfold for CA. Snow totals may be over 100". http://www.americanw...t-coasts-event/ Point and Click for Mt. Shasta showing 176"-218" today through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Man, I'd love to be at my aunt's place in Alpine Meadows near Lake Tahoe this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Point and Click for Mt. Shasta showing 176"-218" today through Sunday. yeah amazing stuff. unfortunately that going on out there is not good for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 the nam barely shows anything while it's cold enough to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 yeah amazing stuff. unfortunately that going on out there is not good for us here. pacific flood gates are open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 i do hope we can settle in to a more stable cold/stormy pattern at some point in the next several weeks. the back and forth temp regimes are hard to get excited about. always kind of looking over your shoulder at milder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 hopefully the last euro weeklies were on target for the week 3/4 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 i do hope we can settle in to a more stable cold/stormy pattern at some point in the next several weeks. the back and forth temp regimes are hard to get excited about. always kind of looking over your shoulder at milder weather. That MJO wave dying out on us definitely hurt in terms of establishing a more stable winter-like pattern here...with no dominant influence, I suspect we are going to see some wild swings...PNA will probably pop positive for a bit, but then go back negative...Atlantic doesn't seem to want to create any type of dominating NAO block. Its going to be an up and down two weeks I think...averaging out warmer than normal for us in that time. hopefully we are rewarded with a nice pattern though mid-month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 BTW decent setup for $80 http://cspoutdoors.com/snmetoset.html Here's the issue I see. What's going to keep the Alaska vortex from re-establishing over and over again? I don't think it'd be the constant warmth chucker it was last year but even it pulsing up every 7-10 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 wow, what a horror story overnight teleconnector derivative. En mass ...whole scale the hemisphere just go sloshed into a warm phase, with the AO unexpectedly jolting upwards from its current nadir some 3SD in a matter of 3 or 4 days?! Seems kind of suspicious to completely go against the grain on such large scales so abrupt as a single days field calculation - shattering a week or more of trend and going against observed environmental variables like that. Is is possible to have global scaled bad data?! holy goodness. I don't think I've ever seen that. In any event. The "current" AO, NAO and EPO suggestion from all agencies would end winter unilaterally until further notice. But again, that's 180 from yesterday at this time, which is odd. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 That MJO wave dying out on us definitely hurt in terms of establishing a more stable winter-like pattern here...with no dominant influence, I suspect we are going to see some wild swings...PNA will probably pop positive for a bit, but then go back negative...Atlantic doesn't seem to want to create any type of dominating NAO block. Its going to be an up and down two weeks I think...averaging out warmer than normal for us in that time. hopefully we are rewarded with a nice pattern though mid-month and beyond. yeah that's pretty much how i see it as well. at least there's cold in Canada from that ridiculous -wpo so the cold shots are actually cold - that's the one very stable feature that's been holding. but that firehose out west just overwhelms afterward. i thought we might have higher heights off to our NE by this point so we'd fall into a pattern where even the hostile west coast wouldn't quite be able to dominate our weather locally. and we'd get some of that western Canada cold into the northern tier and then sort of stuck over New England at times. for now, that's not in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 wow, what a horror story overnight teleconnector derivative. En mass ...whole scale the hemisphere just go sloshed into a warm phase, with the AO unexpectedly jolting upwards from its current nadir some 3SD in a matter of 3 or 4 days?! Seems kind of suspicious to completely go against the grain on such large scales so abrupt as a single days field calculation - shattering a week or more of trend and going against observed environmental variables like that. Is is possible to have global scaled bad data?! holy goodness. I don't think I've ever seen that. In any event. The "current" AO, NAO and EPO suggestion from all agencies would end winter unilaterally until further notice. But again, that's 180 from yesterday at this time, which is odd. We'll see. It's been back and forth. All I need to see is the H5 pattern and know that we are on a break after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 After our Saturday snow event I wonder if we can sneak a swfe in late next week ahead of the next brief mild up. Euro hints at that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 it looks like the pattern we thought we'd see in november before sandy threw a wrench into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 There will be a coastal front probably over my head for a time Saturday. I wonder if just west of it can get a wee bit of enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How about we all do ourselves a big favor and just cancel December already. All along I said this was going to be a horrible month with the cold and snow to the west of us. Maybe midmonth things turn around but I have doubts. The latest euro weeklies should be interesting tonight . I just don't know how much theylonger can keep going showing ridging developing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 How about we all do ourselves a big favor and just cancel December already. All along I said this was going to be a horrible month with the cold and snow to the west of us. Maybe midmonth things turn around but I have doubts. The latest euro weeklies should be interesting tonight . I just don't know how much theylonger can keep going showing ridging developing out west. Just go over Niagara Falls in a barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Weenies need to be 5ppd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 How about we all do ourselves a big favor and just cancel December already. All along I said this was going to be a horrible month with the cold and snow to the west of us. Maybe midmonth things turn around but I have doubts. The latest euro weeklies should be interesting tonight . I just don't know how much theylonger can keep going showing ridging developing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It's been back and forth. All I need to see is the H5 pattern and know that we are on a break after this weekend. yeah, i understand what you mean, but this back and forth across this particular last 24 hours is bigger than that. it's almost physically impossible and I mean that. something strange is going on. That much mass-field characterization completely reversing doesn't happen in real time - it's as though take the last week's worth of telly derivatives and throw it all out because it has been entirley "miss"guidance all along. frustration, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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