December 2012 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

[okie333]

DCA: +0.9

NYC: -0.2

BOS: 0.0

[NYCSuburbs]

DCA: +0.7

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.0

[WEATHER53]

DCA:0.0

NYC:-0.5

BOS:-1.0

[nzucker]

DCA: +0.7

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +2.2

[QVectorman]

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.9

[Mallow]

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +1.3

BOS: +1.4

[RodneyS]

DCA: +3.4

NYC: +2.4

BOS: +1.1

[Quakertown needs snow]

very late

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.9

BOS: +1.0

[Roger Smith]

So far, a mild December ...

DCA .. +7.6

NYC .. +5.2

BOS .. +4.6

(through 10 days) but colder weather shows up for most of second half of month on current GFS run. Negatives may not be out of the game yet.

[Roger Smith]

Here's an approximation on how the contest is going into this last month ...

I have scored Sep, Oct and Nov using the same approximation method I used earlier. The scores should be within 5% of Mallow's official scores based on comparisons from similar months (March was a bit different in our methods but the anomaly was so far from normal there).

Those three scores are added to the running totals after Mallow's official scoring of the first eight months as reported in the August contest thread. These are the new totals, the three numbers in brackets after your name would be your approximate scores for Sep, Oct and Nov. Most players scored well in Sep and Oct, then scored low in Nov, so those in the lead (Midlo, Lake Effect King and Don S) who went below normal for Nov and at least picked up more than half the points available made quite a move on the field last month.

01. 1901 ... Midlosnowmaker (214,236,172)

02. 1863 ... Lake Effect King (270,152,216)

03. 1859 ... Don Sutherland (272,214,182)

04. 1780 ... Litchfieldlibations (164,238,70)

05, 1778 ... UncleW (228,218,82)

06. 1750 ... Chicago Wx (268,262,32)

07. 1715 ... Inudaw (218,244,30)

08. 1714 ... DerekZ (238,166,64)

09. 1684 ... gooba gooba (236,280,000)

10. 1675 ... Ellinwood (246,232,108)

11. 1646 ... Quakertown (282,220,194)

12. 1629 ... CandymanCSGA (296,254,60)

13. 1627 ... BKViking (260,200,230)

14. 1628 ... MNTransplant (270,238,50)

15. 1584 ... RodneyS (244,186,158)

16. 1566 ... Roger Smith (234,222,110)

17. 1547 ... Mallow (156,244,48)

18. 1471 ... Tom (228,210,158)

19. 1461 ... Sacrus (238,260,28) (only played eight Apr-Nov)

20. 1427 ... QVectorman (258, 236, 144)

21. 1418 ... SD (220,264,48)

22. 1375 ... Hockeyinc (174,---,--- )

23. 1280 ... debeaches (222,---,---)

24. 1236 ... Blazess556 (252,262,86)

25. 1129 ... Hudsonvalley (224,120,162)

26. 1075 ... CTBlizz (212,---,---)

27. 1005 ... Pottercountywx (118,120,000)

__________________________________________

We may have some regular players in recent months who weren't in the August totals, but I think this should be similar to the running totals of the regular entrants through the year.

If we're waiting for official scores past Jan 10th or so, I will update this table with provisional December scores to give an estimate of the final standings, then we'll see how far off those are. I would use the official scoring system but I can't open the file that was posted, however, I compared January scores using both methods and they are fairly close.

[LakeEffectKing]

_{Thanks Roger! If those numbers are even close to correct, and with the observed Dec. anomolies currently, I think the engraver can start putting Midlo's name on the trophy, assuming we don't have an insane cold spell by the end of the month.}

[Scotty Lightning]

Well, this year has clearly shown that I suck at long range forecasting.

[Roger Smith]

LEK, I would not guarantee my estimates to the precision required to call in the engravers but I could tell you that if they are accurate then Midlo has more of a lead than you could overcome given the small difference in your forecasts for December. Don S in third would need a tremendous cold surge in late December to get on the right side of the December scores. As it looks now on the GFS output, if things end up around +2 for all three sites, then to estimate scores take the total differences in 0.1, double that and subtract the total from 300. Example, if you said +1.2, +1.1, +0.8, and actuals are all +2.0, then your score will be 300 minus (2x29) or 242. This is the approximation I am using anyway. Back in March with the +10 actuals, I used a different wider range but the same method would have worked better anyway. Otherwise I have used that method for all the score approximations this past year.

The current anomalies are hanging up there even though the warmth is somewhat muted in this particular spell.

DCA ... +6.6

NYC ... +5.1

BOS ... +4.1

(through 15 days)

[Roger Smith]

After 20 days it remains torch-like but with quite a tumble ahead ...

DCA ... +7.5

NYC ... +5.6

BOS ... +4.5

No numbers at hand but I remember this pattern from Dec 1967, sharp drop around 21st and it then stayed cold to mid-January 1968 ... probably too deep into Dec now to fall much below +2.5 (3 for DCA). An average anomaly of zero today (+5 BOS) and -5 rest of month would give +3.3 DCA, +2.0 NYC and +1.5 BOS. Same with -10 anomaly would give +1.7, +0.4 and -0.2. .

[H2Otown_WX]

Through 12/27:

DCA: +6.0

NYC: +4.8

BOS: +4.4

[H2Otown_WX]

Through 12/30:

DCA: +5.3

NYC: +4.1

BOS: +3.9

[Inudaw]

Grats to derekZ this month?

[forkyfork]

Grats to derekZ this month?

looks like it. i thought i was being too bullish

[Roger Smith]

UNOFFICIAL and PROVISIONAL scoring summary

 

This was posted without Dec scores earlier in the thread. Now I have added December, so what you see here is the contest ranking based on official scores through August and my estimated scores for Sep-Oct-Nov-Dec. Your Dec score is the last one in the bracketed section after your name. The rankings and total scores are for the annual contest. Some additional December scores are posted below this list. Those have the three contest site scores, the main table here does not.

 

(edit) One score for Dec marked with * has an estimated late penalty, otherwise was about 96. Sorry about the mix-up as I didn't notice the extension of deadline. Some of the additional scorers (forkyfork, Isotherm) might have had earlier totals similar to bottom of table and might be in the 20-25 range of this table but I don't have that info at hand.

 

 

01. 2013 ... Midlosnowmaker (214,236,172,112)

 

02. 1975 ... Lake Effect King  (270,152,216,102)

 

03. 1974 ... DerekZ (238,166,64,260)

 

04. 1937 ... Inudaw (218,244,30,222)

05. 1930 ... UncleW (228,218,82,152)

06. 1905 ... Don Sutherland (272,214,182,46)

07. 1862 ... Litchfieldlibations (164,238,70,82)

08. 1856 ... Chicago Wx  (268,262,32,106)

 

09. 1764 ... RodneyS (244,186,158,180)

10. 1746 ... gooba gooba (236,280,000,62)

 

11. 1731 ... CandymanCSGA (296,254,60,102)

12. 1715 ... Ellinwood (246,232,108,40)

 

13. 1704 ... MNTransplant (270,238,50,76)

 

14. 1697 ... Mallow (156,244,48,150)

15. 1696 ... Quakertown (282,220,194,50*)

16. 1627 ... BKViking (260,200,230,000)

 

17. 1609... Tom (228,210,158,138)

18. 1566 ... Roger Smith (234,222,110,000)

 

19. 1553 ... QVectorman (258, 236, 144,126)

20. 1461 ... Sacrus (238,260,28,---) (only played eight Apr-Nov)

21. 1430 ... SD (220,264,48,12)

 

22. 1414 ... Blazess556 (252,262,86,178)

23. 1375 ... Hockeyinc (174,---,--- ,---)

24. 1280 ... debeaches (222,---,---,---)

25. 1155 ... Hudsonvalley (224,120,162,026)

26. 1075 ... CTBlizz (212,---,---,---)

27. 1005 ... Pottercountywx (118,120,000)

________________________________________

 

I have these scores for first-timers or part-timers who were not in the list above but played December, just for your interest:

 

forkyfork .................... 58,82,70 ... 210

 

H20_wx ...................... 28,54,58 ... 140

 

nzucker ...................... 2,48,70 .... 120

 

easternsnowman ....... 48,30,26 ... 104

 

NYCSuburbs .............. 2,42,46 ....... 90

 

okie333 ...................... 6.16.26 ...... 48

 

redmorninglight .......... 0,10,36 ...... 46

 

wxdude64 ................... 0,.0,.36 ...... 36

 

Tenman Johnson ....... 0,10, 6 ....... 16

 

Isotherm .................... 0,6,6 .......... 12

 

intenseblizzard2013 ... 0,0,0 .......... 0

snow88 .......................0.0.0 .......... 0

 

____________________________________________________

 

 

 

Consider the results here to be an indication of the order of finish but details may change with the official scores.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

btw, final numbers were

 

DCA +5.6

 

NYC +4.0

 

BOS +3.7

[RodneyS]

Scores for Dec marked with * have an estimated late penalty, otherwise they were higher.

 

13. 1684 ... RodneyS (244,186,158,110*)

 

14. 1647 ... Mallow (156,244,48,100*)

15. 1646 ... Quakertown (282,220,194,---)

19. 1503 ... QVectorman (258, 236, 144,76*)

All of the above except Quakertown were timely submitted, as the December deadline was Dec. 2nd at 11:59 P.M.

[Roger Smith]

Sorry, my bad, have gone in to edit those scores and reduce the penalty estimate for Quakertown. Heavily medicated is my excuse.

 

(didn't see the subheading just looked in the original post)

 

Can you find me some points?