HSNN4 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Snow Totals Harrison ( Hudson ): .8 Whippany (Morris) 2.7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I wouldn't say a lot more. Parents melted down 0.69" from the 0.3" of snow (actually it melted all on its own). KNYC is up to 0.52". About 25% less at KNYC. Maybe some places north of Ewing got even higher total precip, we won't know til tomorrow morning most likely. .45 liquid (heated tipping gauge probably loss some to evaporation to) resulted in 4 inches of snow here with temps at 33-33.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If ya got snow goggles on, you won't listen. Or is it that if you have snow muffs on, you won't hear. I can never get these sayings right. Your forecast was definitely correct for a (lack) of snow in the area...as mine was wrong...but it was most certainly not a 100% clear cut forecast....Upton themselves had the entire area in snow today with their late night forecast last night before again revising it this morning...and it certainly was not like a snow forecast was entirely bereft of model support...even in the middle of the event (12 z NAM, 12 z RGEM)! It is not as if those who forecast snow were off by 150 miles or 3000 feet elevation...forecasting is as much art as science. Having moved to the area in 1971...I know that *many* of these events can go either way...and before you say they mostly go against....think how many snowstorms took place with the temperature between 30 F and 32 F....and how few take place with the temperature under 25 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I guess surface temps are more important in certain situations than 850 temps. I clearly thought the area was going to be all snow based off the 850's. Lesson learned for me. Will someone please bet me it will only take 1 storm for him to jump up and down next time he sees an 850 line on a model run strung south or east of precip. As a matter of fact , dont change .....Cause i actually look forward to it soemtimes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Your forecast was definitely correct for a (lack) of snow in the area...as mine was wrong...but it was most certainly not a 100% clear cut forecast....Upton themselves had the entire area in snow today with their late night forecast last night before again revising it this morning...and it certainly was not like a snow forecast was entirely bereft of model support...even in the middle of the event (12 z NAM, 12 z RGEM)! It as not as if those who forecast snow were off by 150 miles or 3000 feet elevation...forecasting is as much art as science. Having moved to the area in 1971...I know that *many* of these events can go either way...and before you say they mostly go against....think how many snowstorms took place with the temperature between 30 F and 32 F....and how few take place with the temperature under 25 F. No you're right, there were definitely some indicators that suggested I would be wrong and you would be right. I do, however, think the balance was more in my forecast's favor. It was really close. I nailed the forecast back home with a coating verifying as 0.3". I hedged that bet though by mentioning if a heavy band set up right over them, they could eek out 1-2". And that ended up being less than 10 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Around 2" in Montclair. I think that is reasonable. Anyone agree with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 The RGEM was good here except for one bad run last night. We never had rain and the RGEM was pretty consistent with that, other than last nights 00z run which showed the entire event as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 No you're right, there were definitely some indicators that suggested I would be wrong and you would be right. I do, however, think the balance was more in my forecast's favor. It was really close. I nailed the forecast back home with a coating verifying as 0.3". I hedged that bet though by mentioning if a heavy band set up right over them, they could eek out 1-2". And that ended up being less than 10 miles away. And I mention all of this just to point out that I was less than 10 miles away from being wrong back home. Which is a razor thin margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It also just depends on where the bands set up...for this event, NJ got a lot more precip than NYC and north. We only had .5" snow here but it wasn't because of temperatures. We were around 33F but we only had drizzle/flurries for much of the afternoon. Precip was a little further north than expected as well... Plenty of areas up here especially above 700' received 3-5" where 24-48 hrs ago most thought flurries at best for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Only saw rain in Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I do, however, think the balance was more in my forecast's favor. Yes, I agree...probably like 65 -35...but when you enjoy the snow as much as I do...you *always* expect the .350 hitter to get a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 It was mainly rain with little snow mixing in at times here in Bay Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The RGEM was good here except for one bad run last night. We never had rain and the RGEM was pretty consistent with that, other than last nights 00z run which showed the entire event as rain. Last nights 0z Rgem snow map nailed this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Last night's 0z Rgem snow map nailed this event. I would say this is as perfect a snow map as possible. Last night's 0z Rgem: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Last nights 0z Rgem snow map nailed this event. Going only off the p-type graphics from last night, it showed mostly rain for my location. But I'm not surprised the snow map was accurate...the recent upgrade has made the rgem the best short term model by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Going only off the p-type graphics from last night, it showed mostly rain for my location. But I'm not surprised the snow map was accurate...the recent upgrade has made the rgem the best short term model by far. It's the best from hours 12-24, I've noticed. It's weird. For hours 0-12 it's pretty bad, as we saw with today's 12z run. Anything past hour 24, it's completely useless. It's also useless for any storm that involves heavy convection. Whether it be a tstorm or a strong coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0.49 in the bucket here. Almost entirely all rain (some flakes did mix in late this morning though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Ended up with 5 here, obviously quite thrilled - it snowed all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I wouldn't say a lot more. Parents melted down 0.69" from the 0.3" of snow (actually it melted all on its own). KNYC is up to 0.52". About 25% less at KNYC. Maybe some places north of Ewing got even higher total precip, we won't know til tomorrow morning most likely. I did a bit better, 0.60" for 1.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Yeah, you can't just look at one level and say "it will snow" or "it will rain". Gotta look at the whole column. If the lowest 1000 feet of the sounding or more is progged to be above freezing, you will probably have real trouble accumulating anything. Lucky for incredible intensity for a while and really big, pelting flakes. Was able to accumulate, despite a low temp of 33.2 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Around 2" in Montclair. I think that is reasonable. Anyone agree with it? Yeah got around 2" of slop here about 10 miles from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Can anyone else verify approximately 4" in Hillsborough, NJ? It seems like an outlier (but I'm not a liar)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Around 2" in Lyndhurst. Was surprised to get off the train and see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Can anyone else verify approximately 4" in Hillsborough, NJ? It seems like an outlier (but I'm not a liar)! A little south of there in Skillman I measured 2.7" and that was an hour after it ended so some compaction may have factored in. 4" is certainly possible there, especially on some of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Can anyone else verify approximately 4" in Hillsborough, NJ? It seems like an outlier (but I'm not a liar)! It was reported in the Philly subforum thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 At work in East Brunswick we got a coating-.5 inch and at my home in North Brunswick it looked closer to 1 inch. They are towns next to each other. I am prob 6 or 7 miles east from the hillsborough area which someone reported 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Can anyone else verify approximately 4" in Hillsborough, NJ? It seems like an outlier (but I'm not a liar)! Warlock is close to hillsborough and he got 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Can anyone else verify approximately 4" in Hillsborough, NJ? It seems like an outlier (but I'm not a liar)! Me, a solid 4" (at least at around 460'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 At work in East Brunswick we got a coating-.5 inch and at my home in North Brunswick it looked closer to 1 inch. They are towns next to each other. I am prob 6 or 7 miles east from the hillsborough area which someone reported 3 inches. Hillsborough is a large Township, it goes west nearly to Flemington. In the western parts the elevations go up to 500'+. Night and day in marginal setups compared to East Brunswick (where I grew up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Driving from Avenel down to rarity center today around 1pm was interesting. Back at my home in avenel it looked like .5 inches of snow had falling, once I got into rarity center 10 minutes away, nothing on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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