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Nov 27 2012 Snow/Rain/Slop OBS and Nowcasting


earthlight

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Just rain here with some flakes mixing in from time to time, took a ride to my buddy's in SI, there was a very light coating on the grass just before getting on the goethals bridge, nothing on the SI side...The heaviest burst i saw was on the way back to freehold, just north of old briidge (lasted about 2 min)..

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I just drove from Branchburg (all snow and about 2.5 inches on my deck) to Somerville (mostly rain and barely anything)...only about 5 miles apart at most...huge flakes coming down pretty hard right now, side streets are all covered and main roads were earlier

yeah its weird Im in Belle Mead and we got 3 inches on the grass while Somerville and Bridgewater got peanuts and they are usually colder. I guess the further west one was the better for snow this time.

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Liquid-equivalent back home was 0.69", for 0.3" snow... NAM wasn't all that bad QPF-wise for a few places. Thermals were a bit off at times. I guess this storm was a lesson in that, even if you get good rates, but dynamic cooling is being fought by warm advection, don't get your hopes up. Then again, they did get 2" not far to the north.

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I guess surface temps are more important in certain situations than 850 temps. I clearly thought the area was going to be all snow based off the 850's. Lesson learned for me.

Plenty of people advise against using 850s for precipitation type forecasts -- now hopefully some more people understand why.

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Plenty of people advise against using 850s for precipitation type forecasts -- now hopefully some more people understand why.

It also just depends on where the bands set up...for this event, NJ got a lot more precip than NYC and north. We only had .5" snow here but it wasn't because of temperatures. We were around 33F but we only had drizzle/flurries for much of the afternoon.

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It also just depends on where the bands set up...for this event, NJ got a lot more precip than NYC and north. We only had .5" snow here but it wasn't because of temperatures. We were around 33F but we only had drizzle/flurries for much of the afternoon.

I wouldn't say a lot more. Parents melted down 0.69" from the 0.3" of snow (actually it melted all on its own). KNYC is up to 0.52". About 25% less at KNYC. Maybe some places north of Ewing got even higher total precip, we won't know til tomorrow morning most likely.

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Plenty of people advise against using 850s for precipitation type forecasts -- now hopefully some more people understand why.

All else being equal, the 850 line is really only a 50% determinant for a rain/snow line. It's simply a very basic place to start. Kinda like the 540 line in that regard, though the 850 line is probably a tad better.

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All else being equal, the 850 line is really only a 50% determinant for a rain/snow line. It's simply a very basic place to start. Kinda like the 540 line in that regard, though the 850 line is probably a tad better.

Yeah, you can't just look at one level and say "it will snow" or "it will rain". Gotta look at the whole column. If the lowest 1000 feet of the sounding or more is progged to be above freezing, you will probably have real trouble accumulating anything.

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