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November 27th - 28th Storm Observations/Nowcast


twright86

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SREFs actually have the highest prob of 4"+ in ORH county...because those solutions that get heaviest precip up into the cold air are the ones that bloom this system late before it exits stage right.

I'm still not think more than an inch or two though. The biggest problem in this is precip rates. It can snow for 8 hours, but at 32F, its not going to add up to 3-4" of snow if it is light snow.

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SREFs actually have the highest prob of 4"+ in ORH county...because those solutions that get heaviest precip up into the cold air are the ones that bloom this system late before it exits stage right.

I'm still not think more than an inch or two though. The biggest problem in this is precip rates. It can snow for 8 hours, but at 32F, its not going to add up to 3-4" of snow if it is light snow.

yep...case in point here. Snowing lightly for two hours, 32F and the grass isn't even coated. It really needs to come down moderately IMO

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yep...case in point here. Snowing lightly for two hours, 32F and the grass isn't even coated. It really needs to come down moderately IMO

Yeah...2 mile SN- at 32F FTL...it doesn't stick quickly. If we can get some heavier bands in the region, then some areas will have a chance. The models are not so bullish on snowfall over an inch or two for this reason despite some areas getting like 0.3" or even a bit more of QPF. It falls over like 10-12 hours.

Still can't complain too much...2nd snowfall of the season and its only November 27th...and this system could still have some tricks up its sleeve ofr late this afternoon/evening. We'll just have to watch. But people should keep in mind that you need heavier precip rates to accumulate at marginal temps. This system is definitely a bit warmer than the Nov 7-8 system too.

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Oddly enough, severe has screwed me the least...wacko.png

You got in on the freak hailstorm March 13th right? And supercells nearby July 18th? 2011 was a big year out this way with June 1st and the Octobomb, not to mention a huge January (although most of New England got in on that), but really nothing notable in 2012 other than the early season golfing.

Meanwhile snowflakes have gotten a lot smaller here in the last few minutes and there's still no trace on the grass. Very good to see snow in the air nonetheless. 34.1/32.0

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Too bad its too warm on the Cape and far SE MA...that is where the most impressive VVs are going to end up in this. I'm not that impressed with the last couple runs of the RAP for further W and north. It looks like it wants to shred the precip field a bit.

Radar isn't looking too bad though.

Looks good in my neck per the NAM.

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt

Freezing levels around 1000ft as the precip intensifies. Only surface is just above freezing.

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Looks good in my neck per the NAM.

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt

Freezing levels around 1000ft as the precip intensifies. Only surface is just above freezing.

That is very marginal...if precip gets heavy enough you could cash in. If that heavier precip can materialize for SE MA, a weenie place like Foxborough could clean up in a short time.

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Agree with Will. my temp. of 32.1 F is hurting accums in this steady light snow right now. Denrites got a lot better though.. But if it was 25 F .. much better.. laugh.png

That's going to happen in the lower elevations. The higher spots above 600' will do better, you'll get into it with the heavier stuff.

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Agree with Will. my temp. of 32.1 F is hurting accums in this steady light snow right now. Dendrites got a lot better though.. But if it was 25 F .. much better.. laugh.png

Holy cross webcam confirming some nice dendrites just north of you too in ORH at about 600-650 feet there. doesn't look like its sticking too much though at that elevation yet

http://www.holycross.edu/webcam/

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surprised there are no advisories for those areas...

You need widespread 4" amounts for advisories. I doubt that happens. The GFS is kind of bullish...NAM isn't. SREFs are mixed.

If that stuff in PA doesn't weaken too much and we get that 2nd wvae of enhancement early enough, then this could surprise a bit more.

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That's going to happen in the lower elevations. The higher spots above 600' will do better, you'll get into it with the heavier stuff.

Yes, I'm just over 600 feet here and it's already coated over most all sfc's here except the main road down the hill. But even that is getting patchy covering now. Any heavier and it changes fast. Temp. is holding at 32.2 F for now.

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surprised there are no advisories for those areas...

I feel good about those areas in the higher elevations. The boundary layer gets marginal near the coast down there as warmer air aloft moves in, but areas away from the shore and higher up should do well. Maybe DXR to near and south of TOL to FoSter RI or so FTW. A good 2-3 there, but a 4-5 spot is certainly possible.

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