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November 27th - 28th Storm Observations/Nowcast


twright86

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LOL at you saying weenie goggles.

I think Kevin means the stuff moving into srn CT on regional composite radar, but that may not move further north than where it is.

Looks like it's still nudging north a bit.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

BTW this little collapse SE of the first shield before the other one builds "back" a bit was well modeled.

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Looks like it's still nudging north a bit.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

BTW this little collapse SE of the first shield before the other one builds "back" a bit was well modeled.

Yes it was. This is when earlier I was referring to that mid-level fronto stuff in NE PA/SE NY getting shredded a bit as it tried to come over us...then we'd have to wait for the late blooming stuff this evening if we wanted more precip that was more than light nuisance stuff. Not all that optimistic on that stuff outside of RI/SE Ma, but there will be a BL struggle there (except hills of RI)

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417pm Box not going with the more bullish amounts, as most here thought (electronic dictation typos ftl?):

Models... 12z models are in general agreement with the 18z NAM

being the warmest model in terms of thermal profile while the GFS

is the coolest. Decided to blend the two together...which is close

to the European model (ecmwf). For the quantitative precipitation forecast...models have indicated a good swath

across Rhode Island and into interior southeast mass. The GFS had the most quantitative precipitation forecast with

both the NAM and the ec having a lesser amount. Decided to blend the

rfc quantitative precipitation forecast with the NAM to get a good interpretation of current with

some wiggle room.

Forecast...surface low will track from the middle Atlantic to the

benchmark overnight continuing precipitation south of the Mass Pike. Models

are indicated an inverted trough signature as well as good lift

across northern Rhode Island and interior southeast mass. This is due to the

deepening low pressure system. First thought was to issue an advection

especially for the evening commute. However appears better moisture wont get

into the area until after 00z...past the commute hours. Also

limiting factors is the models are not indicating a lot of quantitative precipitation forecast

across the said region as they where before and the instability

within the snow growth layer is minimal as well. If temperatures where a

lot cooler then would go ahead as believe snow will stick. But

with the low confidence decided to hold off as the snow fall will

not be significant enough to accumulate over advection criteria. For

snow totals have a good 1-2 inch swath across CT into mass...with

isolated higher amounts of 2+ inches across the hills of Rhode Island and in

interior southeastern mass.

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