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A day in the life of the NYC Forum (Updated)

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

The fifth annual day in the life post, which is usually made a few weeks before the start of winter. With some snow possible tomorrow, I figured now was a good time to write this baby up. Edited and changed from the last few winters with new posters and new tendencies.

Here we go.

6:30am: I wake up to 6 angry PM's from various posters about 5 post bans. 4 of them are from 1234abc.

7:00am: A few people are still up from the night before talking about Long Island and NYC Climo.

8:00am: People are still posting about last nights 00z models which were great...going over intricate details about soundings and snow growth on a storm that is 96-108 hours out.

8:10am: ChrisL makes a post about 1996 upper level cut off low and Cold Core Barotropic Lows.

8:15am: Somebody posts this day in weather history and nobody responds.

8:35am: AG3 posts the SREF's 10 minutes before anybody else can view them. He says they nudged northwest with the precip line. Says "SREF's drop .40 in NYC".

8:36am: bmc10 calls me 49 times. I am now awake and well aware that the SREF's have moved northwest by 5 miles.

8:45am: NAM starts. 1234abc posts about how the NAM is already much sharper with the trough over the midwest and that he was right all along.

8:46am: I look at the NAM. It is literally the same down to every intricate detail.

9:20am: NAM is out to hour 12.

9:21am: Someone posts about how the overnight GGEM Ensemble spaghetti plots were really good.

9:22am: Snow88 posts the 00z Etheopian and Austrailian model, says it's a big hit.

9:23am: I now need a neck brace from trying to view the map, which is upside down and spinning in circles.

9:24am: Sundog and AG3 start posting NAM maps at the same exact time. I again start wondering if they are the same person.

9:26am: NAM now looks significantly worse. Everything is de-amplified. It has a twelve 960mb lows on an area of thunderstorms in Florida.

9:27am: baroclinic_instability says NAM is suffering from convective feedback and that it can't handle non-linear cyclogenesis. Posts some cool looking PV anomaly and tropopause fold maps.

9:30am: NAM now shows 0.05" QPF for NYC. I post it.

9:32am: AG3 says NAM is actually 0.07" QPF for NYC and posts exact twisterdata amounts to back it up.

9:40am: NZucker says the NAM has more QPF for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

9:50am: A lull period. People analyze NAM soundings even though they don't show any precip.

10:00am: tmagan posts the super secret high resolution RGEM graphics that nobody except for him can find, which are also a huge whiff.

10:15am: Somebody posts the NAM clown maps which show 9" for the middle of the ocean.

10:21am: Isotherm makes a great thread about the medium range and talks about the solar activity and blocking. Snow88 is the first to reply within 3 seconds and says "great write up".

10:30am: GFS starts

10:32am: GFS immediately looks worse. People are panicking. Noreaster27 says he was right.

10:35am: GFS is out to hour 60. Allsnow has made 50 posts in the thread already with intricate QPF details for every reporting station north of the Mason Dixon line.

10:38am: GFS is now out to sea.

10:39am: GFS shows precip over our area in response to the upper level low. Snow88 posts about it.

10:39:30am: NZucker says the GFS has more QPF for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

10:40am: SACRUS posts every radar and satellite image imaginable and available on the entire internet in a tracking thread.

11:00am: HPC releases their morning discussion. they say that the storm is going to come inland. Nobody knows what is going on.

11:25am: GFS shows a HECS at hour 240. Snow88 posts large images of all four panels. I want to fork my eyes out.

11:45am: GGEM is now running.

11:50am: AG3 and others begin posting the 3505 x 2050 pixel black and white maps of the GGEM. I still can't begin to make out what it's saying.

11:55am: atownwxwatcher says the NOGAPS is inland and warns everybody that it is a good model and we should be careful and talks about red flags or something. Also says it's ensembles are inland too.

12:00pm: Ukie is out to hour 72. Looks like the GFS. Nobody knows what it actually shows though, because it only runs at 6, 12, and 72 hours and shows no precip data.

12:15pm: GGEM now shows a 957mb low over Cleveland with +12 850 temperatures over NYC.

12:15:30am: NZucker says the GGEM is colder for his region because of his elevation (401 feet) and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

12:16pm: Ace27018 says that this solution is viable and long island climo sucks.

12:16pm: NorEaster27 says 1-3 inches is likely on the front end and then a transition to rain like climo would suggest.

12:18pm: Somebody comes in and posts that that was the old run of the GGEM and the new run actually shows 200mm of snow for PHL and NYC.

12:19pm: Everybody is insanely happy.

12:20pm: AG3 and sundog tell that poster to clear their cache and the new run is actually over Cleveland.

12:21pm: Everybody is pissed.

12:22pm: Noreaster27 says 1-3 inches is likely.

12:25pm: Dsnowx53 makes a good post with solid reasoning and quality images which gets buried instantly.

12:30pm: Accuweather weenie hour. Millions of young kids start posting terrible analysis and models with awful graphics that nobody can understand. There are also 500 posts talking about Henry M.s forecast and JB's big dog winter weather discussion.

12:45pm: Euro has initialized.

12:46pm: People are already asking how much QPF euro gives them.

12:48pm: Snow88 posts GFS ensembles which show no surface reflection.

12:50pm: Euro is out to hour 12 and looks terrible.

12:55pm: Euro is going east. 8 different people post intricate QPF data for every station on the east coast.

1:05pm: Euro has the storm, just barely out to sea.

1:07pm: People say it's still good because it's a graze and "that's where we want to be at this range".

1:08pm: That one guy from Baltimore comes in and asks how much QPF it gives baltimore.

1:30pm: Another accuweather weenie hour begins. With no models for the next few hours, most people don't even bother posting.

2:30pm: Euro ensembles are posted. Shockingly, they look exactly like the Operational down to the exact mile.

2:35pm: AG3 again posts the SREFs 10 minutes earlier than everybody else. Says they moved south and east.

2:45pm: Everybody else sees the SREFs and says they got a little worse.

2:50pm: TheTrials says we should wait for the individuals because some members always skew the mean

2:55pm: NAM is running.

2:57pm: Eduggs says this storm is boring because it isn't a 970mb bomb off the NJ Coast. I get into a 30 minute argument with him in which we end up agreeing.

3:10pm: NAM is out to hour 6.

3:15pm: NAM looks more amplified.

3:20pm: Anal Log 96 makes some post about DT and how he sucks which immediately gets deleted.

3:25pm: NAM is going nuts. Has a huge bomb off the coast.

3:26pm: Twelve people post mother of god images.

3:27pm: Everybody posts the same image from different sources (NCEP, PSU, etc).

3:28pm: NAM shows an inverted trough developing over the coastal low and gives NYC 3.5" QPF.

3:30pm: jm1220 says this could be a historic storm for Long Island.

3:35pm: Snow At Sea says look at 925mb warm layer. It shows sleet for everybody.

3:40pm: tmagan posts the 18z RGEM which now shows tons of QPF as rain in NYC. Everybody ignores it because it's bad.

3:50pm: Everybody posts soundings and posts their opinion on what the soundings say, most of them are wrong.

3:52pm: the "dynamic cooling" talk begins. I log off.

4:30pm: the thread is growing at 100 posts per minute. Sickman and the rest of the NYC mods are ready to commit themselves into a nursing home.

4:35pm: GFS is out. Everybody says they think it looks more amplified.

4:45pm: GFS is still out to sea by 300 miles.

5:50pm: Mulen posts a new thread talking about how this is a great winter and nyc will get lots of snow cya.

5:54pm: Uptons discussion is out. they say the storm might go out to sea but might come inland. Might be rain,might be snow. Might be warm, might be cold. Might issue watches, might not.

5:56pm: Snow88 posts the Upton snowfall map 10 times.

6:00pm: Awful weenie hour. With no models until 8:45, the next two and a half hours are spent analyzing old model runs and looking at data which is completely irrelevant.

6:30pm: Snow88 again posts the Etheopian model. I refrain from clicking on it due to my prior neck injury.

8:35pm: AG3 and sundog post the SREF's. they have nudged northwest again.

8:45pm: NAM starts.

9:50pm: 12z Ukie is still out to hour 72.

9:15pm: NAM is out to hour 6.

9:20pm: NAM is going south and east again. Has 15 960mb lows on a line of convection over Tampa, FL.

9:25pm: Everybody says it's convective feedback..even though nobody truly knows what that is.

9:25:30am: NZucker says the NAM has more QPF for his region because of his elevation (401 feet) and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

9:30pm: Millions of posters say that the NAM is an outlier because the SREF's went north and west.

10:00pm: tmagan posts 00z RGEM which is out to sea. Says it is the best model.

10:15pm: atownwxwatcher says the NOGAPS is now out to sea. But we have been warned because it was inland for one run. That means everything is going to trend northwest.

10:30pm: GFS has started

10:40pm: Everybody is posting about how the GFS is better aloft.

10:42pm: GFS is still out to sea by 300 miles.

10:45pm: AG3 posts the individual SREFs which show 7 inland runners and 7 out to sea but the mean shows a hit. I roll my eyes.

10:50pm: Allsnow makes a post about his plowing company.

11:00pm: People start analyzing the trends over the past few runs of the GFS. Say it's looking better aloft.

11:15pm: GFS ensembles look like the SREF but with more QPF. Some poster from PA who was fringed says never to trust them because of that last storm which gave them nothing.

11:30pm: Someone posts individual GFS ensembles. Like the srefs, a bunch are inland and a bunch are out to sea.

11:45pm: GGEM has started. I'm still trying to read the black and white maps from the 12z run.

11:50pm: SACRUS posts the maps this time, at a larger resolution of 5040 x 5002 pixels.

11:52pm: Somebody posts a GGEM image which shows a huge hit.

11:53pm: AG3 tells that person to clear their cache. the GGEM is actually out to sea.

11:54pm: Ace is somehow fighting with somebody over something stupid.

11:55pm: I still can't read the black and white maps.

12:00am: GGEM precipitation type maps are out, and it is out to sea.

12:15am: Board begins to settle down a bit as people start going to bed.

12:45am: The Euro has initialized.

12:47am: Nikolai makes a post saying this will be snow in NYC because he's never seen anything not bring snow to NYC.

12:48am: I respond saying he's wrong.

12:49am: Nikolai makes a thread in OT asking why I am even a moderator.

12:50am: Everybody with Euro access posts QPF data for everybody on the east coast through 24 hours.

1:00am: Euro is coming northwest. Looks great. I post the same thing 12 times about how it's more amplified with heights on the east coast.

1:05am: Euro is now a bit hit. Everyone asks for exact QPF amounts for for every 6 hour increment.

1:05am: simpsonsbuff texts me and asks me the Euro QPF data for KLEB in New Hampshire.

1:06am: Everybody that is still up is wired over the Euro run.

1:07am: uofmiami posts the huge Plymouth State Euro maps with awesome colors that makes everything look dramatic.

1:30am: Everybody is still analyzing the Euro.

1:35am: 40/70 Benchmark comes into our subforum to talk about how epic this winter is and how the EURO is correct. He uses some big vocabulary to make it sound dramatic.

2:15am: NorEaster27 says 1 to 3 inches likely.

2:17am: NZucker starts talking about how high latitude blocking is good on the Euro in the long range. and since he has elevation he should do well in this event.

2:20am: I go into the SNE forum. All i see is hotdog.gif AWT posts surrounded by insightful posts from ORH_wxman, CoastalWx and MEkster

2:45am: 03z SREF's are out, and they are out to sea by a wide margin.

2:46am: DSnowx53 calls me angrily.

2:55am: 06z NAM is out to sea by 600 miles. Nobody even cares anymore.

3:30am: HM makes a post in the main forum about global angular momentum.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

LOL... Serious question about the UKie ...Why does it seem that any storm approaching the NYC Metro always seems to hit between the forecasted time incriment and no one can ever decipher what it forecasts for us.

Plymouth has all UKIE plots through hour 72, except 2-3 frames of precip.

The French site has all the frames of precip from hours 0-72 but upside down.

Ewall has the best overall UKIE maps, but they take 2 hours longer then Plymouth and French site to update and they also are missing a couple of precip frames.

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