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The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread


WilkesboroDude

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I got my copy of the Old Farmers Almanac yesterday and we're in the colder than normal section, with above average snowfall. That correlates well with the Farmers Almanac, which is also predicting colder and snowier conditions. Of course, that's probably no better than flipping a coin, but it's fun to read anyway.

So, we have the following in our favor:

1) Robert's prelim forecast

2) Widreman's unusual optimism

3) Brick's spider webs

4) magpiemaniac's all black woolly worm

5) Fat squirrels

6) Oak trees with lots of acorns

7) The Farmers Almanac

8) The Old Farmer's Almanac

9) The Euro Monthlies

10) Unusual blackbird activity around Wilkes County

I think we're in for a banner year! :)

 

 I just discovered a new indicator, the red-headed fuzzy caterpillar! I've literally got thousands of them here outside the house in Savannah! they're falling on the house from nearby trees that have numerous webs (not spider). See attached pics. The bug guy told me he's never seen anything like it in all of his years! So, I think it must be indicative of something good for this winter. Any opinions? At a minimum, it needs to be added to the list.

 

post-882-0-04635600-1380234066_thumb.jpg

post-882-0-57152000-1380234898_thumb.jpg

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Well, either they're finally wising up over there or we're finally in for a cold and snowy winter.

But man, reading the Mid Atlantic thread, they're harping on a big -PDO this winter. So we may yet again be dealing with a raging Pacific jet. Yay.

They are probably finally wising up. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation will be in the positive phase which favors a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. They are probably correct in the mid Atlantic forum.The PDO is strong this year unlike in 2009-2010 winter where it was weak and not much of a factor. The Pacific has made our last two SE winters crappy.
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I just discovered a new indicator, the red-headed fuzzy caterpillar! I've literally got thousands of them here outside the house in Savannah! they're falling on the house from nearby trees that have numerous webs (not spider). See attached pics. The bug guy told me he's never seen anything like it in all of his years! So, I think it must be indicative of something good for this winter. Any opinions? At a minimum, it needs to be added to the list.

Hmmmm.... I think we might need a deeper data collection exercise before we put them in the cold/snowy winter camp. What if it indicates an exceptionally warm winter, when they show up in excess?

Anybody got any data regarding excessive amounts of red-headed fuzzy caterpillars and the ensuing winter? Or know anybody that does? Or ever hear of something like that somewhere?

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They are probably finally wising up. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation will be in the positive phase which favors a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. They are probably correct in the mid Atlantic forum.The PDO is strong this year unlike in 2009-2010 winter where it was weak and not much of a factor. The Pacific has made our last two SE winters crappy.

I would forecast a warmer than normal winter with fewer chances for snow, if I were making a forecast. Oh, wait a minute. I just did. :o

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I just discovered a new indicator, the red-headed fuzzy caterpillar! I've literally got thousands of them here outside the house in Savannah! they're falling on the house from nearby trees that have numerous webs (not spider). See attached pics. The bug guy told me he's never seen anything like it in all of his years! So, I think it must be indicative of something good for this winter. Any opinions? At a minimum, it needs to be added to the list.

RedHeadedFuzzyCaterpillar.jpg

CaterpillarWeb.jpg

. The caterpillar doesn't look like a tent caterpillar , but the web sure looks like tent caterpillars? They really like building on trees in the cherry family.
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. The caterpillar doesn't look like a tent caterpillar , but the web sure looks like tent caterpillars? They really like building on trees in the cherry family.

 

 Actually, I did some research and think it is the red-headed morph larvae of the fall webworm. Opinions? See 1st pic, which I got from here, which is the redheaded fall webworm as compared to my home's caterpillar, which is the 2nd pic:

 

http://entnemdept.ufl.edu/creatures/trees/moths/fall_webworm.htm

 

redheaded fall webworm (caterpillar)

post-882-0-96298600-1380246768_thumb.jpg

 

 

Is this the same thing? It looks nearly identical.

post-882-0-02922900-1380246827_thumb.jpg

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 Actually, I did some research and think it is the red-headed morph larvae of the fall webworm. Opinions? See 1st pic, which I got from here, which is the redheaded fall webworm as compared to my home's caterpillar, which is the 2nd pic:

 

http://entnemdept.ufl.edu/creatures/trees/moths/fall_webworm.htm

 

redheaded fall webworm (caterpillar)

attachicon.gifredheadedfall_webworm13.jpg

 

 

Is this the same thing? It looks nearly identical.

attachicon.gifRedHeadedFuzzyCaterpillar.jpg

 

Yep.  It's a webworm.  Al Gore invented it.

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Cold Rain,

This is quite encouraging. However, please don't forget dsaur's moles. They usually make seasonal predictions and are usually weighted extra heavily. Until they have spoken, I'd say any survey of winter predictions is very incomplete. Unfortunately, the moles' whereabouts are unknown, which has raised a lot of concern. I'm still waiting for them to come to the beach and eat ice cream here in Savannah. Fortunately, Tony has assured me that they tend to party too hard in late summer, especially on Jack and Coke, and that they'll likely appear once they sober up. :) If I finally see them, I'll let you know. Keep hope alive!

Larry, I'm sad to say the Moles are still AWOL as exhibited by my shocking lack of rain since early summer, as compared to the rest of you.  I hadn't realized what a void they would leave..a veritable rain hole.  Until I get another 3 to 5 inch rain, it's safe to say they are still missing.  However, if you want a preliminary forecast based on their papers, and research, I'll accommodate you, grief stricken, as I am.

  The rubber ducky map says it all, in my opinion.  It will be a cad winter, in that the few periods of sleet, or zrain we get, at least in my area, will be cad induced overrunning, into pretty much normal temp winter air.  The occasional cold spell balanced by the occasional warm spell.  Pretty much normal in temps.  I don't see much snow this winter..mostly an ice winter when frozen precip falls, but lots of cold rain. 

    Now, that said, there is much uncertainty  injected with the recent discovery that the universe is skewed.  Much hotter on one side than the other.  A warped universe makes accurate discussions of currents and wind patterns problematic.  There was some sign of this shocking reveal when the Nasa Wma probe came in with data pointing to a warped universe, but it wasn't until the Euro Space Agency Planck satellite recently corroborated the data, that this new wrinkly, thorny, wrinkle entered into the equations.  Theories have begun to emerge, complicated by the 10,000 simulations they ran of the evolution of the cosmos wherein only 7 resulted in a warped universe. So, it's possible but very unlikely. Either there is a new, undiscovered energy warping the universe, or there was an ancient collision with another universe.

  The Moles were apparently working on a theory with a working title "The Slosh Postulation".  The best I can tell is they think the universe might tilt from one side to the other, mixing the hot and the cold, resulting in verifiable  changes in the earths atmosphere....with some time lag, naturally.  And it's this lag, they were stuck in their calculations over.  I believe now, it was this new warped universe data, and the resulting sticking point that sent then into a spin, and into the latest binge.  Your kind offer of ice cream and booze was the final straw.

  Larry, I'm sorry I can't be more certain, but reading Mole is difficult....so there it is.  Probably about normal in temps, more ice than snow...rainy.  Except in the cursed lands where it won't rain anymore in quantity until the Blind  Pseudo Weather Seer/Generators  return. 

  Oh, and I've seen another all white tent worm, and all the way across town, so the ice will be prevalent rather than isolated. T

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I pulled up this thread and expectd to see winter discussion and saw catepillars instead. lolz

Sent from my BNTV600 2

Lol, Inaccuweather isn't any better! Wooly worms, tent worms, and Al Gore's webworms probably know a lot more in late Sep. Figuring out what they're trying to tell us is the challenge.
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I spent the the morning/early afternoon at Hesse Elementary and on the way back towards 95 I stopped at DQ :)

:lol:

1) I had my 1st DQ Reese's blizzard two weeks ago. I'm hoping that means good things are acoming. I think the Reese's part means a big sleetstorm may be in the cards.

2) Coincidence. My mom's education career started as 4th grade teacher at Hesse Elem.! That was many years ago.

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1) I had my 1st DQ Reese's blizzard two weeks ago. I'm hoping that means good things are acoming. I think the Reese's part means a big sleetstorm may be in the cards.

2) Coincidence. My mom's education career started as 4th grade teacher at Hesse Elem.! That was many years ago.

I'm guessing my hot fudge sundae must mean 6-8" of snow with a glaze of sleet is coming soon for the se crew   :lol: 

 

I'm a photographer at Strawbridge studios and do freelance(wedding/maternity/family/seniors/landscape/etc) in my spare time. I have to say that Hesse Elem has awesome teachers and great students :D  Yes...I'm the one that tells your child to sit up straight, turn your head and smile on picture day :lol:  

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. Very nice input and makes since! Maybe we can get snow every other storm!?

Thanks still learning, observing.  Thats about all we can do. Lol that would be nice but its doubtful. But its possible. I'm still watching and a pattern for this winter is in my head.

 

1377442_176353075889153_956087739_n.jpg

 

Accuweather says find a cliff.

 

After the last 4-5 years I say expect the complete opposite. Literally a total 360.

 I just discovered a new indicator, the red-headed fuzzy caterpillar! I've literally got thousands of them here outside the house in Savannah! they're falling on the house from nearby trees that have numerous webs (not spider). See attached pics. The bug guy told me he's never seen anything like it in all of his years! So, I think it must be indicative of something good for this winter. Any opinions? At a minimum, it needs to be added to the list.

 

attachicon.gifRedHeadedFuzzyCaterpillar.jpg

attachicon.gifCaterpillarWeb.jpg

Those buggers are destructive. That tree will probably be dead by next summer. I haven't had many but usually averge a couple a year. I'd agree add it to the list of..

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Thanks still learning, observing.  Thats about all we can do. Lol that would be nice but its doubtful. But its possible. I'm still watching and a pattern for this winter is in my head.

 

 

After the last 4-5 years I say expect the complete opposite. Literally a total 360.

Those buggers are destructive. That tree will probably be dead by next summer. I haven't had many but usually averge a couple a year. I'd agree add it to the list of..

 

 They can kill my trees? Are you sure? I know they have been causing the leaves to turn brown and fall off, but they would have fallen off in about two months anyway. These webs are in almost all of the trees on this property. I wonder if I need to contact a tree service co. that could get up there and get rid of the nests. Maybe Powerstroke knows?

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 They can kill my trees? Are you sure? I know they have been causing the leaves to turn brown and fall off, but they would have fallen off in about two months anyway. These webs are in almost all of the trees on this property. I wonder if I need to contact a tree service co. that could get up there and get rid of the nests. Maybe Powerstroke knows?

 

From what I've read there are several different types.  Some do little permanent damage and others, if they don't kill the tree directly, weaken a tree so that it is susceptible to other things.  

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Lol destructive bugs?

 

Really they are.

Why is metal worried about winter? Your yearly avg is one sleet pellet! :)

:lol:

 

 They can kill my trees? Are you sure? I know they have been causing the leaves to turn brown and fall off, but they would have fallen off in about two months anyway. These webs are in almost all of the trees on this property. I wonder if I need to contact a tree service co. that could get up there and get rid of the nests. Maybe Powerstroke knows?

I have them around here too. Usually too high up to do anything myself about it and really I have plenty of trees so in a way one or two to me is no big deal. But yeah if they get well established in a tree they will eat the leaves. Thus robbing the tree of energy and weakening it and making it sick. If they dont kill the whole thing usually the section they are in will eventually die.

 

I have a couple from last summer that those worms were in the top half of a tree and now that half is dead. One tree they were so established that the whole thing is dead this year. Wait till later when the sun comes up some more and I'll take some pictures to help explain it more.

 

Its up to you as what to do. Now if you have a long extending latter and maybe a long pole(like a pool skimmer pole) then you could easly take care of them yourself. Just get you an old towel or rag tie it on to the end. Get you a five gallon bucket and a couple gallons of kersone let that rag soak let the excess drain and torch them.

 

I developed that method after having a couple low hanging japanese and black faced hornets nest near the house over the years.

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I pulled up this thread and expectd to see winter discussion and saw catepillars instead. lolz

Sent from my BNTV600 2

Lol, Inaccuweather isn't any better! Wooly worms, tent worms, and Al Gore's webworms probably know a lot more in late Sep. Figuring out what they're trying to tell us is the challenge.

We had some geese come through the other day. Bit early for them, but otherwise no signs from the animals around here yet. Haven't even seen a wooly worm yet.

Sent from my BNTV600 using Tapatalk 2

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