The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

[griteater]

30 day SOI has climbed from -1.72 to 6.45 over the past 3 weeks.  Sustained negative values below −8 indicate El Nino conditions and sustained positive values above +8 indicate La Nina conditions

 

Also, there is an easterly propagating oceanic kelvin wave that contributed to the recent warming in the Nino 3.4 region, but we will likely see some cooling over the next month as the wave continues east...pushing Nino 3.4 further into cool (negative) neutral conditions.

 

[FLweather]

You're kidding right? In Carrboro it was worse than 2011-2012. The only upside for me was catching thundersnow near GSO (It didn't really stick in Carrboro and actually ended as rain).

I think of last year as half and half. I did better last year than 11-12.  Last year was 2(2.5"+ snows) and the same with ice 2(.10"). 11-12 cut that in half. Really 09-10 was the last decent one here in Nc.

The only things I'm hanging on to are:

• Cooler than normal summer
• Wetter than normal summer
• Neutral ENSO (so no bad signals, per se)
• Much more ice coverage over the summer than previous years
• Early start to NHem snow cover that requires going back a decade or more to find a similar year
• Warm waters near the Gulf of Alaska, a signal that's been lacking for quite some time
• Continued below normal temperature pattern, with no sign of change

I think all this says is that we won't have a blowtorch winter. Whether that translates to anything more than a few borderline events and only moderate cold at the worst remains to be seen.

 

Thats the spirit. I know last couple winters have been in the crapper but all of the above are good valid points. What that translates into later we shall see. But I know we are on a decent path to what we can call an actual winter time unlike winters past. This year shall be different and really past due on a good snowfall.

[metalicwx366]

I have seen snow fall in my backyard every winter I have been down here except for the 2011-12 winter.

[tonysc]

Well here in Asheville NC the last two winters were a no show.  Lived here 61 years and the last two winters must be the worst I have ever seen.   I mean for the lack of cold and snow.  I'll have to say the two winters before the last two were really good. 

 

Yeah I live in Greenville, SC and I'm with you on that one. Last winter was slightly better than the winter of 2011 /12 but that's not saying much. I remember in like early April 2012 when the NWS out of GSP was giving their synopsis of the winter of 2011 /12, they said it was the only winter since they have been keeping records, which I think dates back to the late 1800's, that there was not even a flake of snow reported in the Greenville, Spartanburg area, and even more surprising, they said that it was the first time since they have been keeping records that there wasn't any measurable snow in Asheville. So the winter of 2011 / 12 was definitely one for the record books, but of course NOT for the reason that we would hope for.

[Cold Rain]

I got my copy of the Old Farmers Almanac yesterday and we're in the colder than normal section, with above average snowfall. That correlates well with the Farmers Almanac, which is also predicting colder and snowier conditions. Of course, that's probably no better than flipping a coin, but it's fun to read anyway.

So, we have the following in our favor:

1) Robert's prelim forecast

2) Widreman's unusual optimism

3) Brick's spider webs

4) magpiemaniac's all black woolly worm

5) Fat squirrels

6) Oak trees with lots of acorns

7) The Farmers Almanac

8) The Old Farmer's Almanac

9) The Euro Monthlies

10) Unusual blackbird activity around Wilkes County

I think we're in for a banner year!

[GaWx]

I got my copy of the Old Farmers Almanac yesterday and we're in the colder than normal section, with above average snowfall. That correlates well with the Farmers Almanac, which is also predicting colder and snowier conditions. Of course, that's probably no better than flipping a coin, but it's fun to read anyway.

So, we have the following in our favor:

1) Robert's prelim forecast

2) Widreman's unusual optimism

3) Brick's spider webs

4) magpiemaniac's all black woolly worm

5) Fat squirrels

6) Oak trees with lots of acorns

7) The Farmers Almanac

8) The Old Farmer's Almanac

9) The Euro Monthlies

10) Unusual blackbird activity around Wilkes County

I think we're in for a banner year!

Cold Rain,

This is quite encouraging. However, please don't forget dsaur's moles. They usually make seasonal predictions and are usually weighted extra heavily. Until they have spoken, I'd say any survey of winter predictions is very incomplete. Unfortunately, the moles' whereabouts are unknown, which has raised a lot of concern. I'm still waiting for them to come to the beach and eat ice cream here in Savannah. Fortunately, Tony has assured me that they tend to party too hard in late summer, especially on Jack and Coke, and that they'll likely appear once they sober up. If I finally see them, I'll let you know. Keep hope alive!

[WNC_Fort]

Yea I just moved back to Asheville this year, I heard how bad it was up here, but Id rather be in the mountains for winter than Raleigh anytime.

[Mr Bob]

The only things I'm hanging on to are:

• Cooler than normal summer
• Wetter than normal summer
• Neutral ENSO (so no bad signals, per se)
• Much more ice coverage over the summer than previous years
• Early start to NHem snow cover that requires going back a decade or more to find a similar year
• Warm waters near the Gulf of Alaska, a signal that's been lacking for quite some time
• Continued below normal temperature pattern, with no sign of change

I think all this says is that we won't have a blowtorch winter. Whether that translates to anything more than a few borderline events and only moderate cold at the worst remains to be seen.

This is a great post and sums up my feelings so far. It is still very early, though.  

[Cold Rain]

Cold Rain,

This is quite encouraging. However, please don't forget dsaur's moles. They usually make seasonal predictions and are usually weighted extra heavily. Until they have spoken, I'd say any survey of winter predictions is very incomplete. Unfortunately, the moles' whereabouts are unknown, which has raised a lot of concern. I'm still waiting for them to come to the beach and eat ice cream here in Savannah. Fortunately, Tony has assured me that they tend to party too hard in late summer, especially on Jack and Coke and that they'll likely appear once they sober up. If I finally see them, I'll let you know. Keep hope alive!

Ok, good deal. Keep me posted and we'll add them to the list, if they indicate a cold and snowy winter!

[jburns]

Ok, good deal. Keep me posted and we'll add them to the list, if they indicate a cold and snowy winter!

And ignore them if they don't. Ah, the blind optimism of fall has arrived.

[Cold Rain]

And ignore them if they don't. Ah, the blind optimism of fall has arrived.

Ha! My list is exclusively for *favorable* variables only. I'll let you start the list for the warm and snowless side and you can ignore the cold stuff.

[eyewall]

I guarantee a double digit event at RDU since I left the area. You're good.

[NEGa]

for a very "scientific" report lol, the squirrels this year are noticeably more active and scurrying around lol.  i know all the debate on things like this, but just personal experience over the years generally if the squirrels are more active than usual (ie. enough to be noticed) we usually do end up with at least some sort of winter (unlike the last two years). this also applies several locations i have lived in from midwest to mid atlantic to se

 

i just hope that we at least get some winter wx this year.  after being spoiled a couple of years ago lately the winter has been horrendous

[Cold Rain]

Well, the Mid Atlantic folks see a big fat Aleutian ridge this year, with a mean storm track to the west, although there may be more variability in the pattern this year.  I guess we can put this one in Burns' warm winter bucket.

[mackerel_sky]

I don't even know why we speculate on winter in September ? I understand patterns,enso and all that stuff can give us hints as to what may possibly happen, but models can't get it right 5 days out. We just keep getting up or down on somebody's latest thought or idea. It's like waiting on every model run when we think a winter event is coming.

[jburns]

Well, the Mid Atlantic folks see a big fat Aleutian ridge this year, with a mean storm track to the west, although there may be more variability in the pattern this year.  I guess we can put this one in Burns' warm winter bucket.

 

I don't know where I got the reputation I prefer warm winters.  I don't.  I just like to poke a bit of fun at some of the irrational exuberance that is on display here every fall.  You have to admit, a squirrel running across your yard equaling a snowy winter is a stretch for a science board.

[metalicwx366]

I don't even know why we speculate on winter in September ? I understand patterns,enso and all that stuff can give us hints as to what may possibly happen, but models can't get it right 5 days out. We just keep getting up or down on somebody's latest thought or idea. It's like waiting on every model run when we think a winter event is coming.

Lol. I see what you said there.

[Cold Rain]

I don't know where I got the reputation I prefer warm winters.  I don't.  I just like to poke a bit of fun at some of the irrational exuberance that is on display here every fall.  You have to admit, a squirrel running across your yard equaling a snowy winter is a stretch for a science board.

 

Haha!  I know, I'm just messing with you for being an irrational exuberance squasher.

[jburns]

Lol. I see what you said there.

 

But did he say what you see.

[metalicwx366]

But did he say what you see.

I don't know, maybe. Do you think I'm imagining things?

[jburns]

I don't know, maybe. Do you think I'm imagining things?

I can't imagine how I would know.

[HKY_WX]

I'll try to put one out in late October as usual. I am in the Raleigh area now, but I am still mobile! lol

[buckeyefan1]

I got my copy of the Old Farmers Almanac yesterday and we're in the colder than normal section, with above average snowfall. That correlates well with the Farmers Almanac, which is also predicting colder and snowier conditions. Of course, that's probably no better than flipping a coin, but it's fun to read anyway.

So, we have the following in our favor:

1) Robert's prelim forecast

2) Widreman's unusual optimism

3) Brick's spider webs

4) magpiemaniac's all black woolly worm

5) Fat squirrels

6) Oak trees with lots of acorns

7) The Farmers Almanac

8) The Old Farmer's Almanac

9) The Euro Monthlies

10) Unusual blackbird activity around Wilkes County

I think we're in for a banner year!

   I support this list       

 

Cold Rain,

This is quite encouraging. However, please don't forget dsaur's moles. They usually make seasonal predictions and are usually weighted extra heavily. Until they have spoken, I'd say any survey of winter predictions is very incomplete. Unfortunately, the moles' whereabouts are unknown, which has raised a lot of concern. I'm still waiting for them to come to the beach and eat ice cream here in Savannah. Fortunately, Tony has assured me that they tend to party too hard in late summer, especially on Jack and Coke, and that they'll likely appear once they sober up. If I finally see them, I'll let you know. Keep hope alive!

I was in Savannah Monday eating ice cream and thought of you  

 

I did not see any of Tony's moles  

 

This is a great post and sums up my feelings so far. It is still very early, though.  

 

And ignore them if they don't. Ah, the blind optimism of fall has arrived.

Indeed   

 

I'll try to put one out in late October as usual. I am in the Raleigh area now, but I am still mobile! lol

Can't wait to see it   

[BIG FROSTY]

I'll try to put one out in late October as usual. I am in the Raleigh area now, but I am still mobile! lol

Looking forward to it Brandon!

[kvegas-wx]

Big Frosty sighting!!! Time for snow plow preps!

[FLweather]

Ok folks. I'm no pro nor meteorologist. Im observant of my surroundings. Everyone knows that last few winters have sucked really no other word to describe it. I'd perfer not to get into deep with last year. But what it comes down to is cold sst's whiched favored more cold in the west. With warmer sst's and temps in the east.

 

This year if you have noticed since a warm winter we have expierenced a wet cool summer as well. While Alaska expierenced a cold snowy winter last year they went to literally the hottest summer on record. With a few days of all time record highs ever reached.

 

If you recall too it really started getting wet around May/June and since then on to now. Even though we have been in a dry spell in the Se the last few weeks but the next few weeks will bring the potiential of alot of storms in the east. With the potential deep cut off lows.

 

Back to SST's.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.1.17.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.3.18.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.16.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.6.17.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.16.2013.gif

 

The sst's would correlate with the pattern shift we have had over the summer. But if you noticed along the coast of Alaska, BC the water has warmed. That is probably due to the fact of the ridge repostioning and possibly strenghting. Which is shown by

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

But to get to the point lol. This winter I do believe very strongly that it will be better than years past. As long as the ridge stays to the west and even maybe move a little more west. That should allow for alot of storminess in western Alaska and on the east coast to atleast Dec/Jan. Pretty much a continuation of the summer pattern.

 

But thats my 2 cents and what I've noticed. Im a weenie at heart and would like every storm in winter time to fall as snow but realistically thats impossible.

[mackerel_sky]

Ok folks. I'm no pro nor meteorologist. Im observant of my surroundings. Everyone knows that last few winters have sucked really no other word to describe it. I'd perfer not to get into deep with last year. But what it comes down to is cold sst's whiched favored more cold in the west. With warmer sst's and temps in the east.

This year if you have noticed since a warm winter we have expierenced a wet cool summer as well. While Alaska expierenced a cold snowy winter last year they went to literally the hottest summer on record. With a few days of all time record highs ever reached.

If you recall too it really started getting wet around May/June and since then on to now. Even though we have been in a dry spell in the Se the last few weeks but the next few weeks will bring the potiential of alot of storms in the east. With the potential deep cut off lows.

Back to SST's.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.1.17.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.3.18.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.16.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.6.17.2013.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.16.2013.gif

The sst's would correlate with the pattern shift we have had over the summer. But if you noticed along the coast of Alaska, BC the water has warmed. That is probably due to the fact of the ridge repostioning and possibly strenghting. Which is shown by

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

But to get to the point lol. This winter I do believe very strongly that it will be better than years past. As long as the ridge stays to the west and even maybe move a little more west. That should allow for alot of storminess in western Alaska and on the east coast to atleast Dec/Jan. Pretty much a continuation of the summer pattern.

But thats my 2 cents and what I've noticed. Im a weenie at heart and would like every storm in winter time to fall as snow but realistically thats impossible.

. Very nice input and makes since! Maybe we can get snow every other storm!?

[GaWx]

I was in Savannah Monday eating ice cream and thought of you

 

I did not see any of Tony's moles  

 

 Lol. Where did you eat ice cream? We need to talk to Tony and see if he has a moles update. I'm guessing they're still plastered.

[eyewall]

 

Accuweather says find a cliff.

[Cold Rain]

Accuweather says find a cliff.

Well, either they're finally wising up over there or we're finally in for a cold and snowy winter.

But man, reading the Mid Atlantic thread, they're harping on a big -PDO this winter. So we may yet again be dealing with a raging Pacific jet. Yay.