Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies: December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO. January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO. February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold. Check please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Essentially thats the same pattern we've been in all summer. Ridge out west troughiness in the east. I'd have to agree with this... I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies: December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Yep, those little guys are really getting fat here too. Maybe it's a sign of a bad winter or maybe it's just the abundance of things to eat with the increase in rainfall this summer. Time will tell. Meanwhile, I am looking forward to a good winter. According to some SST's graphs I have seen recently, Enso is showing some signs of warming. Could we possibly sneak in a weak El-Nino this season? Maybe the squirrels are just lazy welfare queens and are telling us nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm waiting for juncos and pine siskins to appear at the bird feeder. These guys are usually a pretty good sign of cold weather on the way here. As for the squirrels, I think they eat more so they can watch people get excited about the possibility of a cold winter. Squirrels can be very cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Arctic ice growth is doing a lot better than last year. Already up 60 percent! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm waiting for juncos and pine siskins to appear at the bird feeder. These guys are usually a pretty good sign of cold weather on the way here. As for the squirrels, I think they eat more so they can watch people get excited about the possibility of a cold winter. Squirrels can be very cruel. Lol, this is a good day for humor. Good one! Those mean, mean squirrels. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 For KATL since 1980: Summers (JJA) averaging under 78 F were 1982, 84, 85, 92, 97, 01, 03, and 04. 2013 averaged 77.5 Following 8 winters (DJF for temp.'s/precip.; DJFM for S/IP): 1. Temp.'s: 6 near normal; 2 above normal 2. Precip.: 1 above normal, 4 near normal, 3 below normal 3. S/IP: 4 above normal (3 of 4 with a major snowfall: 3/83, 3/93, 1/02), 1 near normal, 3 below normal; total 25.5" or 3.2"/winter vs. average of only ~2"/winter; 5 of the 8 above the median 4. Major ZR: only 1 of the 8 winters (1/04) vs. ~1 of 5 that have had at least one major ZR So, 4 of the 8 or 50% of the winters had a major wintry precip. event (not bad for KATL since only ~40% of them have at least one major). Ok, time for more ice cream lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies: December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold. Brett Anderson's interpretation doesn't really match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Brett Anderson's interpretation doesn't really match Those are the Euro Seasonals as opposed to the Monthlies. Regardless, it's hard to put a lot of stock in either, particularly at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Those are the Euro Seasonals as opposed to the Monthlies. Regardless, it's hard to put a lot of stock in either, particularly at this time range. He called them the monthlies. He also had October and November posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 He called them the monthlies. He also had October and November posted Monthlies vs. Seasonals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The Climate Prediction Center updated their long range forecast today and they have backed off of the warmer than normal signal for the northern planes to the NE. There is now a large area of equal chances for the eastern US. Bad news, the maps still show a higher chance of below normal precip for much of the SE. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Brick mentioned this in the September thread, but Robert has an early look at winter out on his website: www.wxsouth.com. It's in his Public section. As long as you have registered (for free), you can view this post. It's an early look at winter, but Robert likes the patterns he's seeing. He says many parameters are much different than the last two winters. Check it out. His official winter forecast will be out in later October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Im really interested in his opinion. So ya making me sign up then?! lol jk. I probably know one of the factors though. Something that has been a thorn in the side more than the last two winters.... a very eager pac jet. Brick mentioned this in the September thread, but Robert has an early look at winter out on his web site: www.wxsouth.com. It's in his Public section. As long as you have registered (for free), you can view this post. It's an early look at winter, but Robert likes the patterns he's seeing. He says many parameters are much different than the last two winters. Check it out. His official winter forecast will be out in later October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Im really interested in his opinion. So ya making me sign up then?! lol jk. I probably know one of the factors though. Something that has been a thorn in the side more than the last two winters.... a very eager pac jet. Signing up doesn't cost anything. There are different degrees of membership on his site. If you want to see all his posts, you have to pay a monthly fee, but Robert occasionally posts things in the public folder, and all that is required is a free membership to read those posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Signing up doesn't cost anything. There are different degrees of membership on his site. If you want to see all his posts, you have to pay a monthly fee, but Robert occasionally posts things in the public folder, and all that is required is a free membership to read those posts. just wondering why he needs my email spam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 just wondering why he needs my email spam? A higher registered user count makes you more attractive to advertisers (anonymous hits are meaningless, getting someone to register shows engagement, etc). If you're worried about it, you can make a disposable email account and never check it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Brick mentioned this in the September thread, but Robert has an early look at winter out on his website: www.wxsouth.com. It's in his Public section. As long as you have registered (for free), you can view this post. It's an early look at winter, but Robert likes the patterns he's seeing. He says many parameters are much different than the last two winters. Check it out. His official winter forecast will be out in later October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Brick mentioned this in the September thread, but Robert has an early look at winter out on his website: www.wxsouth.com. It's in his Public section. As long as you have registered (for free), you can view this post. It's an early look at winter, but Robert likes the patterns he's seeing. He says many parameters are much different than the last two winters. Check it out. His official winter forecast will be out in later October. Yeah, I like how it sounds, but the last two winters were supposed to look good leading up to them, and central NC didn't really see anything. Always seems to be something that pops up to change things. But I guess if we get any measurable snow at all it would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Call me in December. Last winter the weeklies weren't that great. Hard to trust the monthlies....but if they do correlate with this past Summer that's good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Yeah, I like how it sounds, but the last two winters were supposed to look good leading up to them, and central NC didn't really see anything. Always seems to be something that pops up to change things. But I guess if we get any measurable snow at all it would be better. Last winter was not horrible. Definitely not good but there have been worse. Our area received around 4-5" of snow: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 ??? Indeed. WxSouth's early winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Last winter was not horrible. Definitely not good but there have been worse. Our area received around 4-5" of snow: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif Well here in Asheville NC the last two winters were a no show. Lived here 61 years and the last two winters must be the worst I have ever seen. I mean for the lack of cold and snow. I'll have to say the two winters before the last two were really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Last winter was not horrible. Definitely not good but there have been worse. Our area received around 4-5" of snow: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif meh There are 8 types of herpes. They pretty much all suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 You never see warm winter forecasts anymore. Nowadays it's just the entire east covered in blue(cold) with the west all in red(warm) then the opposite occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Last winter was not horrible. Definitely not fgood but there have been worse. Our area received around 4-5" of snow: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif Don't forget the biggest snow of the season last winter that occured on 28OCT12 - 31OCT12! Our wonderful state is so large with so many varying climate zones that things are always location dependent as usual. Hoping for a great winter this year. As long as the ground stays mostly white in areas above 5000' from early December through late February I am usually satisfied. (I know greedy ain't I?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Last winter was not horrible. Definitely not good but there have been worse. Our area received around 4-5" of snow: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130117.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20130127.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20130222.gif You're kidding right? In Carrboro it was worse than 2011-2012. The only upside for me was catching thundersnow near GSO (It didn't really stick in Carrboro and actually ended as rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The only things I'm hanging on to are: Cooler than normal summer Wetter than normal summer Neutral ENSO (so no bad signals, per se) Much more ice coverage over the summer than previous years Early start to NHem snow cover that requires going back a decade or more to find a similar year Warm waters near the Gulf of Alaska, a signal that's been lacking for quite some time Continued below normal temperature pattern, with no sign of change I think all this says is that we won't have a blowtorch winter. Whether that translates to anything more than a few borderline events and only moderate cold at the worst remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 You're kidding right? In Carrboro it was worse than 2011-2012. The only upside for me was catching thundersnow near GSO (It didn't really stick in Carrboro and actually ended as rain).Basically I got lucky and fell within the right bands for both events. I think Wake Forest up to into Franklin County did ok as well. And again it was not a good year but some got more lucky than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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