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The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread


WilkesboroDude

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Wrong ^^. Brown rings near the head, means cold start to winter, black section is warm and dry, and small brown section near the end is brutal cold. Basically a repeat of last winter with the very cold November, warm January, February, and December, and frigid March.

 

You are the first dyslexic wooly worm reader I've ever encountered.

 

Wooly worm reading instructions.

http://www.weather.com/news/woolly-worm-winter-20121020

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Nearly every square mile of ocean in the NH is above normal right now, but I do like seeing the warm pool in the GOA holding on.  This time last year and in '11 it was solidly below normal.  But the entire N Pac basin is above normal right now.. so unusual how warm the ocean is yet the Enso is neutral neg right now.

 

anomnight.8.26.2013.gif

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Saw my first wooly worm of the year Imby! It had a few brown rings near head, pretty sizeable black section, and a small brown section near tail. I think the big section of black means a cold , snowy winter! I'll have to wait and see the persimmon crop before I can make a better winter outlook ! :)

 

I found a wooly worm in my son's school this morning.  It was all black from end to end.  Prepare for massive blizzards in central NC this coming winter.

 

:D

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Nearly every square mile of ocean in the NH is above normal right now, but I do like seeing the warm pool in the GOA holding on.  This time last year and in '11 it was solidly below normal.  But the entire N Pac basin is above normal right now.. so unusual how warm the ocean is yet the Enso is neutral neg right now.

 

 

I'll take my chances with a neutral enso this winter   ^_^

 

I found a wooly worm in my son's school this morning.  It was all black from end to end.  Prepare for massive blizzards in central NC this coming winter.

 

:D

:wub: 

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http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Are-you-sure-its-August-Temp-drops-to-9-in-Canadian-town-220941801.html

 

"The area near Eureka -- a Canadian research outpost in Nunavut at 80 degrees North (See map) -- has seen a nearly unprecedented start to winter this month (August).


According to UW research meteorologist Mark Albright, there is already 7 inches of snow on the ground and the temperature Friday night dropped to 9 degrees -- its lowest August temperature reading ever and as far as I can tell, the third lowest August temperature reading ever recorded around sea level in North America. (The research post "Alert" at 82N has recorded late August temps of 5F and 8F on Aug. 31 and 30 according to their record lows). Certainly Eureka's 9F was the coldest August 24th temperature recorded in North America.

 

While we might picture the polar regions as a barren place where it snows 365 days a year amid sub-zero temperatures -- in the summertime that's not really the case. The average high temperature in August in Eureka is 41 and its average low is 33 -- don't forget the sun is up non-stop in August (until the 30th, its first sunset)."

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So whats the saying about seeing both kinds of wooly worms?

 

I've seen some solid black this year and the last couple of days I've seen some crossing the road that are brownish-orange(solid). A brownish color would indicate mild weather right?!

 

Looks like Mr Wooly may be conflicted about this winter. Maybe not bitter cold but snowier then the past few winters. :whistle:

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How about we use real science instead of bugs? :lmao:

Obviously the black wooly worms have a gene for black and brown one has a general for brown color, and the others have the two colors codominate to each other.

 

Laugh if you please. Use what you want. Nature is the best indicator IMO. Not no machine that is ran 2 or 4 times a day. Mother nature is going to do what it will damn well please and there are signs to see if you look for them.

. How did real science work out last winter?

Exactly!!  ;) If not last winter what about years past. According to some of the models.... the gates of hell should have been frozen over on Earth a very long time ago.

 

It worked out fine for Waycross.  They were within 0.1" of their average snowfall.

 

:lol:

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Another sign I have seen us squirrels eating green pine cones down to the core! A lot of them everywhere! I thought they could get seeds from the brown open cones? If they are so desperate to fill up on the tight green cones, we better stock up on rock salt and snow shovels!!

 

I've noticed the samething with the squirrels but not with pine cones. Acorns..... lots of half eaten acorns.

 

Even these little trees... less than 3ft tall are already bare. Not dead none what so ever and other trees working its way up with the medium size trees. Over the last month there has been some good coloration with the trees considering how wet its been.

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I've noticed the samething with the squirrels but not with pine cones. Acorns..... lots of half eaten acorns.

 

Even these little trees... less than 3ft tall are already bare. Not dead none what so ever and other trees working its way up with the medium size trees. Over the last month there has been some good coloration with the trees considering how wet its been.

 

Yep, those little guys are really getting fat here too. Maybe it's a sign of a bad winter or maybe it's just the abundance of things to eat with the increase in rainfall this summer. Time will tell. Meanwhile, I am looking forward to a good winter. According to some SST's graphs I have seen recently, Enso is showing some signs of warming. Could we possibly sneak in a weak El-Nino this season?

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According to some SST's graphs I have seen recently, Enso is showing some signs of warming. Could we possibly sneak in a weak El-Nino this season?

 

I think it's just a temporary bump in Nino region SSTs.  Today's MEI update for Jul/Aug came in with weak La Nina conditions, which was also the case for Jun/Jul.  If we were proceeding toward a Nino, it would almost certainly have shown its hand by now.  There are no strong westerly 850mb wind anomalies forecasted in the near term in the Nino region.  In my view, we are looking at ENSO neutral, with weak La Nina the next most likely...but we'll soon find out.

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I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies:

 

December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.
January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.
February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold.

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I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies:

December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.

January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.

February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold.

Lol I'm going to make this my new signature.
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