The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

[mackerel_sky]

I don't see how we are going to have a weak El Nino by winter. Maybe by next summer though.

. They have secret formulas that go back about 200 years, don't question the Almanac!

[Spidyr2k]

. They have secret formulas that go back about 200 years, don't question the Almanac!

But aren't long range weather forecasts just educated guesses, either human or machine, and are therefore inherently questionable?  

 

 

 

Nah, you gotta love The Old Farmer's. I always learn something new. Haven't they statistically been right, more than wrong? I dunno 

<<<<<  listens too mellow bluegrass-jazz fusion 

[metalicwx366]

Haven't they statistically been right, more than wrong? I dunno

<<<<< :

Hell no.

[metalicwx366]

. They have secret formulas that go back about 200 years, don't question the Almanac!

Lol. I really wonder what they use to forecast.

[NCHurricane]

Lol. I really wonder what they use to forecast.

[jburns]

Lol. I really wonder what they use to forecast.

 

Abe Weatherwise is really DT.

[mackerel_sky]

Lol. I really wonder what they use to forecast.

. Hopefully , not the CFSV2!

[dsaur]

Lol. I really wonder what they use to forecast.

Well, we had a guy on here a couple of years ago that said his grand dad used to sniff squirrel whiz to see what the weather was going to do   Personally I'd rather measure the brown rings on woolly caterpillars.  I wonder if the Farmers uses one of these methods along with other secret rituals.  T

[weathertree4u]

Well, we had a guy on here a couple of years ago that said his grand dad used to sniff squirrel whiz to see what the weather was going to do   Personally I'd rather measure the brown rings on woolly caterpillars.  I wonder if the Farmers uses one of these methods along with other secret rituals.  T

 

The Old Farmers Almanac, the original and longest continuously published Almanac in the US, since 1792, comes out September 10, for the Southeast they include on their website the following look forward for my area, the TN Valley

 

Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

Winter will be colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation and snowfall in all but the northernmost part of the region. The coldest periods will occur in early to mid- and late December and in early to mid- and late February. The snowiest periods across the north will be in late December, mid- to late January, and in early to mid- and late February.

 

For areas that people most commonly post from on here, the outlook is as follows....Virginia, North/South Carolina, West Virginia

 

Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

Winter will be colder and drier than normal, with the coldest periods in early and late December, early January, and early February. Snowfall will be near normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the snowiest periods in early November and in mid- and late February.

 

For areas including Atlanta, Savannah, etc. 

 

Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

Winter will be colder and drier than normal, but with above-normal snowfall in much of the region. The coldest periods will be in early and late December, early to mid-January, and early February. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-February and in late February.

 

This can all be found at http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/GA/Atlanta

[jburns]

 The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-February and in late February.

 

This can all be found at http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/GA/Atlanta

 

So February then.

 

This answers the question of how they do their forecasts.  The wording is just as dumb as NWS local forecast wording, so I would say it's computer generated.  

[eyewall]

I am going with a 10" event for RDU this winter. I am not there anymore

[FLweather]

I am going with a 10" event for RDU this winter. I am not there anymore

 

Why not? But yeah we can take it to the bank now!! Watch Southern Pines have the biggest snowfall in 20 years.

[weathertree4u]

So February then.

 

This answers the question of how they do their forecasts.  The wording is just as dumb as NWS local forecast wording, so I would say it's computer generated.  

 

I know the oldest one goes off of folklore and sunspots

[SnowGoose69]

Do these analogs ever work? I constantly see these maps showing blue all on the Eastern side of the country and yet they don't verify.

 

They often do not because people will take analogs that occurred in a different PDO phase, the AMO can also strongly impact Eastern U.S. temperatures, in that case using analogs from the 80s or early 90s is never a good idea for now, same as using PDO years from the 90s into early 2000s is not either.  I think one of the best indicators which people often disregard can sometimes be looking at global record high/low temperatures leading up to your winter, look at the years in which the records are being broken and that can tip you off as to what may be coming.  Last December there were record temps being broken in Alaska, all of the years those records were coming from years that had cold 2nd halves to winter over the Eastern U.S....sure enough we woke up over most of the East for February and March even if it didnt snow much in southern areas.  South Africa's 2 biggest snow events occurred in the Northern Hemisphere summers of 1932 and 2002, both coming after what were the warmest and 2nd warmest U.S. winters on record of 1931-32 and 2001-02 until 2011-12 happened...coincidence?  Perhaps but I tend to believe global patterns repeat themselves.

[LithiaWx]

Why not? But yeah we can take it to the bank now!! Watch Southern Pines have the biggest snowfall in 20 years.

The Old Farmers Almanac, the original and longest continuously published Almanac in the US, since 1792, comes out September 10, for the Southeast they include on their website the following look forward for my area, the TN Valley

Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

Winter will be colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation and snowfall in all but the northernmost part of the region. The coldest periods will occur in early to mid- and late December and in early to mid- and late February. The snowiest periods across the north will be in late December, mid- to late January, and in early to mid- and late February.

For areas that people most commonly post from on here, the outlook is as follows....Virginia, North/South Carolina, West Virginia

Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

Winter will be colder and drier than normal, with the coldest periods in early and late December, early January, and early February. Snowfall will be near normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the snowiest periods in early November and in mid- and late February.

For areas including Atlanta, Savannah, etc.

Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

Winter will be colder and drier than normal, but with above-normal snowfall in much of the region. The coldest periods will be in early and late December, early to mid-January, and early February. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-February and in late February.

This can all be found at http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/GA/Atlanta

Lumping savannah and Atlanta Into the same forecast tells me all o need to know about this almanac right there. That is equivalent to putting Asheville and Charleston in the same forecast zone.

[GaWx]

 I have been asked by Tony and several others whether or not I've found a correlation between the wet we've been having and the following winter. Fwiw, I just looked at the wettest Jan-Aug at KATL since 1879: 1912, 1920, and 1975 (2013 is right among these).

 

- Temp.'s averaged near normal overall. 1913 had a mild Jan. while 1976 had a cold Jan.

- S/IP averaged solidly below average with these amounts: T, 0.6", 0.6". Avg. is ~2".

- Rainfall: two of the three had a dry Feb  and wet Mar while one had a wet Feb and dry Mar

 

 That's about all I have on this.

[metalicwx366]

Clearly this is what they use.

[metalicwx366]

They often do not because people will take analogs that occurred in a different PDO phase, the AMO can also strongly impact Eastern U.S. temperatures, in that case using analogs from the 80s or early 90s is never a good idea for now, same as using PDO years from the 90s into early 2000s is not either. I think one of the best indicators which people often disregard can sometimes be looking at global record high/low temperatures leading up to your winter, look at the years in which the records are being broken and that can tip you off as to what may be coming. Last December there were record temps being broken in Alaska, all of the years those records were coming from years that had cold 2nd halves to winter over the Eastern U.S....sure enough we woke up over most of the East for February and March even if it didnt snow much in southern areas. South Africa's 2 biggest snow events occurred in the Northern Hemisphere summers of 1932 and 2002, both coming after what were the warmest and 2nd warmest U.S. winters on record of 1931-32 and 2001-02 until 2011-12 happened...coincidence? Perhaps but I tend to believe global patterns repeat themselves.

Great explanation. It makes sense now. I'm guessing the same applies with hurricane season analogs.

[metalicwx366]

Abe Weatherwise is really DT.

DT can be decent, he just goes to the extreme with everything like JB. Then she gets pissed off when someone disagrees with him. 

. Hopefully , not the CFSV2!

 

That model was horrid last winter.  Whatever it shows, just forecast the opposite and boom you nail it. 

Well, we had a guy on here a couple of years ago that said his grand dad used to sniff squirrel whiz to see what the weather was going to do   Personally I'd rather measure the brown rings on woolly caterpillars.  I wonder if the Farmers uses one of these methods along with other secret rituals.  T

Lol WTH. Who started with these weather sayings and rituals? Bugs and animals overpower meteorologist. 

[buckeyefan1]

Ok, got the old farmers almanac today!!! This isn't for the faint of heart! It says cold and snowy for all of VA,NC, SC and northeast corner of GA!! . It has a big snowflake over Greenville and Columbia SC! The almanac has spoken! Gonna be a lot of snow this winter! They say neutral to weak Niño and cool phase of PDO, warm AMO, and cold phase of NAO for most of the winter!

I believe    

[jburns]

DT can be decent, he just goes to the extreme with everything like JB. Then she gets pissed off when someone disagrees with him. 

 

 

You're still having trouble with the gender thing, aren't you.

[eyewall]

Why not? But yeah we can take it to the bank now!! Watch Southern Pines have the biggest snowfall in 20 years.

 

Actually I can't say that for real as I was in Southern Pines for their largest known snowfall in Jan 2000.

[nchighcountrywx]

More details on the Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast:
 

http://m.cbsnews.com/fullstory.rbml?catid=57600023&feed_id=1&videofeed=null

 

Text of Article:

 

"Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "bitterly cold" winter
August 25, 2013

LEWISTON, MaineThe Farmers' Almanac is using words like "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. And if its predictions are right, the first outdoor Super Bowl in years will be a messy "Storm Bowl."

The 197-year-old publication that hits newsstands Monday predicts a winter storm will hit the Northeast around the time the Super Bowl is played at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey. It also predicts a colder-than-normal winter for two-thirds of the country and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.

"We're using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It's going to be very cold," said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.

Based on planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles, the almanac's secret formula is largely unchanged since founder David Young published the first almanac in 1818.

Modern scientists don't put much stock in sunspots or tidal action, but the almanac says its forecasts used by readers to plan weddings and plant gardens are correct about 80 percent of the time.

Last year, the forecast called for cold weather for the eastern and central U.S. with milder temperatures west of the Great Lakes. It started just the opposite but ended up that way.

Caleb Weatherbee, the publication's elusive prognosticator, said he was off by only a couple of days on two of the season's biggest storms: a February blizzard that paralyzed the Northeast with 3 feet of snow in some places and a sloppy storm the day before spring's arrival that buried parts of New England.

Readers who put stock in the almanac's forecasts may do well to stock up on long johns, especially if they're lucky enough to get tickets to the Super Bowl on Feb. 2. The first Super Bowl held outdoors in a cold-weather environment could be both super cold and super messy, with a big storm due Feb. 1 to 3, the almanac says.

Said Duncan: "It really looks like the Super Bowl may be the Storm Bowl."

The Maine-based Farmers' Almanac, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac, which will be published next month, features a mix of corny jokes, gardening tips, nostalgia and home remedies, like feeding carrots to dogs to help with bad breath and using mashed bananas to soothe dry, cracked skin in the winter.

Also in this year's edition, editor Peter Geiger is leading a campaign to get people to ditch the penny, like Canada is doing.

Past campaigns have focused on moving Thanksgiving to harvest time in October, reconsidering "The Star-Spangled Banner" as the national anthem and changing the color of money. This time, Geiger thinks he has a winner.

He wants people to donate pennies to charity and then lobby Congress to stop making them.

"They don't get used very much. They get tossed. The only real use of a penny is if you save tens of thousands of them, then you can use them to help someone," he said.

------------------

 

And another article:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/08/25/Farmer-s-Almanac-Predicts-Very-Cold-Winter

 

Let's just lock this solution in right now with no changes !   Would not that be nice!

[FLweather]

Actually I can't say that for real as I was in Southern Pines for their largest known snowfall in Jan 2000.

 

Duh... NC. See its been so long just a distant memory. This Jan will be 14 years. Hard to believe. But for me though Jan 2000 wasn't the biggest. The heaviest deform band setup up 30-45 miles east of here.

 

But I hope you enjoy your time in VT. I hope you see so much snow that you say its time to head back south.

[dsaur]

 I have been asked by Tony and several others whether or not I've found a correlation between the wet we've been having and the following winter. Fwiw, I just looked at the wettest Jan-Aug at KATL since 1879: 1912, 1920, and 1975 (2013 is right among these).

 

- Temp.'s averaged near normal overall. 1913 had a mild Jan. while 1976 had a cold Jan.

- S/IP averaged solidly below average with these amounts: T, 0.6", 0.6". Avg. is ~2".

- Rainfall: two of the three had a dry Feb  and wet Mar while one had a wet Feb and dry Mar

 

 That's about all I have on this.

  That's a good one Marietta   And you can't predict one spot in Ga. based on what the others are doing, even if they are close.  I wouldn't call this a particularly wet spell based on what happen in my yard, but most of the rest of you would disagree.

  Larry, I'd take near normal for temps after the last two years, but I'd like to see it through the winter instead of just a colder single month, to get the average.  I think it'll be colder than normal.  I think the worm turned in March and we'll continue the cycle for a while, and I don't see why more normal precip won't be the deal too.  A pretty good fall off from what the rest of you have been having would still be normal for winter

  The local news said Atlanta was averaging 85 daily as opposed to the usual 90.  That's a pretty good departure.  Maybe we ought to be looking at negative departure in summer compared to following winters temps.  I think we'll have at least one good cold spell, in the 850's anyway, in Sept, but lots of Nov. snow?  I'm not holding my breath, lol.  Tony

[metalicwx366]

Worst winter forecasts ever above. They just say it's going to be bitterly cold and not provide any scientific reason. Planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles??

[FLweather]

You're still having trouble with the gender thing, aren't you.

 

 

Worst winter forecasts ever above. They just say it's going to be bitterly cold and not provide any scientific reason. Planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles??

 

 

Well, we had a guy on here a couple of years ago that said his grand dad used to sniff squirrel whiz to see what the weather was going to do   Personally I'd rather measure the brown rings on woolly caterpillars.  I wonder if the Farmers uses one of these methods along with other secret rituals.  T

 

Sometimes folklures turn out to be true. Its hard to say which is true... which is not. But I dont know what it means... this year I'm seeing lesser acorns, hardly no stink bugs. But a boat load of spiders and millipeds. Past few years its been boat loads of acorns and stinkbugs. Anybody know mountain folk that can translate this mountain dialect into a winter forecast?

[mackerel_sky]

Sometimes folklures turn out to be true. Its hard to say which is true... which is not. But I dont know what it means... this year I'm seeing lesser acorns, hardly no stink bugs. But a boat load of spiders and millipeds. Past few years its been boat loads of acorns and stinkbugs. Anybody know mountain folk that can translate this mountain dialect into a winter forecast?

. I may not be a mountain man , but I have noticed the lack of acorns. I thought that would be the opposite with all the rainfall,but maybe it was too much rain and cut down on pollinization or something? There are a lot of folklore sayings involving animals an nature, like if hornets build their nests high off the ground, there will be lots of deep snow, etc. I have seen a lot of birds feeding on the viburnum bush berries in my back yard. Every year about this time, hope springs eternal for the best winter ever, then by January , it's " the 18z GFS , just gave us .20 of precip , all frozen" , then it's nothing or flurries , but all we have is hope until its over

[griteater]

Today's ENSO update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

 

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. While most indicators have clearly remained neutral over recent months, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has at times approached La Niña levels. It has now returned to neutral values.

 

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of the year. Only one of the seven models surveyed suggests a brief period of La Niña-like cooling of the tropical Pacific." 

[tarheelwx]

A great move in the right direction!

TW