The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

[Met1985]

Just finished my preliminary forecast for winter 2013-14. Its Posted on my blog here: http://torontowxcent...14-outlook.html

Thanks you for your opinion and taking the time to write this up and post it here on the forum.

[GaWx]

Didn't realize Atlanta averages less than 1 inch per winter. I say that because I get just as much if not more snow than the airport. I wonder if that 0.89 inches includes the foot of snow we had in 1993, the 6 inch snow we had in 1992 and several big snows we had in the 80s and the 5 inch snow in 2002.

edit: That same website shows that Marietta, GA gets on average 0.48" snow per year. About 1/2" inch less than Atlanta.

 

 The 1879-2012 avg. snowfall for KATL is close to 2". 1981-2 through 2010-1 is over 2". 1983-4 through 2012-13 averaged just over 2". The last 80 winters averaged 2.1". Bottom line: the 0.89" looks way too low! Marietta's 0.48" is even further from reality. Marietta averaging half of KATL is a joke in itself. They're very likely close to 2.5". The numbers at this site are clearly way too low for the Atlanta area, period! Pure unadulterated doggy doodoo!

 

Aside: KATL got 4.2" in the 1993 blizzard and 5" in 1992.

[Spidyr2k]

So, if I get a foot of snow this year   , the average snowfall for the year is 1"(12 months/12")? How is it calculated? 

[LithiaWx]

It's an average, so yes it does.

go away or stop trolling our subforum

[MikeGold]

Looks like 3 straight warm winters in a row. This could be the first time in my lifetime I've gone 3 straight winters with no accumulating snow.

 

How awful! I can't even imagine. I suggest moving?! Why take the abuse? You don't have to go too far but elevation is everything in the Southland. For instance, a weather observer in my subdivision recorded about 75" of snow last season at the 5200 foot level near Balsam during a very plain vanilla Winter. Attached pics was taken a couple of weeks after the 2 feet of snow that fell from Hurricane Sandy last October. Hoping for at least 100" this coming Winter.

[Met1985]

How awful! I can't even imagine. I suggest moving?! Why take the abuse? You don't have to go too far but elevation is everything in the Southland. For instance, a weather observer in my subdivision recorded about 75" of snow last season at the 5200 foot level near Balsam during a very plain vanilla Winter. Attached pics was taken a couple of weeks after the 2 feet of snow that fell from Hurricane Sandy last October. Hoping for at least 100" this coming Winter.

The mountains here really make up a lot in elevation and we can have some insane local averages around here. Some pretty good totals add up just a few thousand feet in elevation also. Also would just like to note that everything is a prediction not an absolute. Don't write off winter before we are even into fall.

[griteater]

It looks like that website is basing it's annual snow averages on the "American Community Survey 2006-2010" (whatever that is), as opposed to a NOAA 30 year average (or some other extended time period).

[GaWx]

It looks like that website is basing it's annual snow averages on the "American Community Survey 2006-2010" (whatever that is), as opposed to a NOAA 30 year average (or some other extended time period).

 

 If that's the case, the survey is still dead wrong and way too low for the Atlanta area! Depending on exactly how it is tallied (2006-2010 cal. years, winters of 2006-7 through 2010-11, or winters of 2005-6 through 2009-2010), KATL received 12.5", 18.1", and 11", respectively. 12.5"/5 = 2.5"/year. 18.1"/5 = 3.6"/year. 11"/5 = 2.2"/year. All of these are well above the 0.89"/year mentioned for KATL and way above the 0.48" for Marietta! On a percentage basis, these are horrible errors. It has Marietta at only about 20% of its true snowfall! Who put these together, Goofy? Mr. Tudball from the Carol Burnett show's Mrs. (A')Wiggins skits?? Mrs. (A')Wiggins herself? I wouldn't trust any of their numbers for any cities.

[metalicwx366]

So, if I get a foot of snow this year , the average snowfall for the year is 1"(12 months/12")? How is it calculated?

No one knows . In1989 here, when it snowed it was in December and there was a white Christmas. But the 0.1 we average each year is in January.

[jburns]

 If that's the case, the survey is still dead wrong and way too low for the Atlanta area! Depending on exactly how it is tallied (2006-2010 cal. years, winters of 2006-7 through 2010-11, or winters of 2005-6 through 2009-2010), KATL received 12.5", 18.1", and 11", respectively. 12.5"/5 = 2.5"/year. 18.1"/5 = 3.6"/year. 11"/5 = 2.2"/year. All of these are well above the 0.89"/year mentioned for KATL and way above the 0.48" for Marietta! On a percentage basis, these are horrible errors. It has Marietta at only about 20% of its true snowfall! Who put these together, Goofy? Mr. Tudball from the Carol Burnett show's Mrs. (A')Wiggins skits?? Mrs. (A')Wiggins herself? I wouldn't trust any of their numbers for any cities.

 

Percentage wise it is awful for sure. Of course, we are talking such small amounts that any practical effects are nil.

[GaWx]

Percentage wise it is awful for sure. Of course, we are talking such small amounts that any practical effects are nil.

 

 Well, the "practical effects" aren't relevant to my point about very inaccurate stats. Also, I'm recommending not to trust their stats for cities with normally large amounts of snow, where huge practical effects would be in play. Actually, for a place like the Atlanta area, where significant snow is uncommon and the amount of snow removal equipment/budget size isn't impressive, I'd argue that practical effects aren't necessarily so nil. Consider the difference between 0.5" and the actual of ~2.5" for Marietta. Over a five year period, we're talking the difference between just 2.5" and a much more respectable (for the deep south) 12.5". Moreover, some of this area's "snowfall" is actually sleetfall, which has a much bigger impact per inch.

[nchighcountrywx]

For what it is worth at stimulating reading, here is another advance winter write up from something called Firsthand Weather:

http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/winter-20132014-southeast

[mackerel_sky]

For what it is worth at stimulating reading, here is another advance winter write up from something called Firsthand Weather:

http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/winter-20132014-southeast

. I'm all in on this forecast! Not reading another one the rest of the year! If this was even half right, this will best winter since 2010!!

[kvegas-wx]

. I'm all in on this forecast! Not reading another one the rest of the year! If this was even half right, this will best winter since 2010!!

Whatever......

Somebody basically interviewed Brick and published this nonsense in a comedy blog. Who wouldnt take this? But we all know that timing is the key across most of the SE. We've had numerous instances over the last few years where the players were on the map but missed each other on the dance floor by about 6 or 8 hours.

We'll see.

[FLweather]

MikeG... beautiful pictures. Would be nice to have that view with a fresh hot cup of coffee in the morning hours.

 

:lmao:
We average 0.10 each year and haven't picked that up since 1989.

 

 

If it makes you feel any better I used to live in Pearson, Homerville. A year each town back in 95-97. Back then it did get cold durring the winters but still mild in a way. I was about 10-11ish but I remember a few nights in Pearson it did get down to the 10-20 range. That one morning I remember of what my dad said "sh*t its 11 degrees outside". There was a couple nights of disturbed weather which it was raining in Pearson near 40 while places deeper in the woods N/W toward Albany had R/S mix falling. But just sharing some history with ya from what I expierence .... dont get your hopes all up. The only logicial thing to do for cold and snow is move north.

[andyhb]

go away or stop trolling our subforum

 

So giving a perfectly valid answer to the question is trolling?

[metalicwx366]

MikeG... beautiful pictures. Would be nice to have that view with a fresh hot cup of coffee in the morning hours.

If it makes you feel any better I used to live in Pearson, Homerville. A year each town back in 95-97. Back then it did get cold durring the winters but still mild in a way. I was about 10-11ish but I remember a few nights in Pearson it did get down to the 10-20 range. That one morning I remember of what my dad said "sh*t its 11 degrees outside". There was a couple nights of disturbed weather which it was raining in Pearson near 40 while places deeper in the woods N/W toward Albany had R/S mix falling. But just sharing some history with ya from what I expierence .... dont get your hopes all up. The only logicial thing to do for cold and snow is move north.

2009-10 winter we reached 16 degrees one night in January. Also on February 12,2010 we had a winter storm warning for 1-2 inches of snow. We just saw flurries while Baxley, GA received 5 inches of snow. Douglas also picked up accumulating snow. I don't expect snow every winter especially when I live right near Florida lol. I do miss the snowstorms and icestorms that I use to see when I stayed in Chicago. Most memorable blizzard/snowstorm for me was February 13-14 2007.

[metalicwx366]

For what it is worth at stimulating reading, here is another advance winter write up from something called Firsthand Weather:

http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/winter-20132014-southeast

lol

[dsaur]

 The 1879-2012 avg. snowfall for KATL is close to 2". 1981-2 through 2010-1 is over 2". 1983-4 through 2012-13 averaged just over 2". The last 80 winters averaged 2.1". Bottom line: the 0.89" looks way too low! Marietta's 0.48" is even further from reality. Marietta averaging half of KATL is a joke in itself. They're very likely close to 2.5". The numbers at this site are clearly way too low for the Atlanta area, period! Pure unadulterated doggy doodoo!

 

Aside: KATL got 4.2" in the 1993 blizzard and 5" in 1992.

Yeah, and they don't list the sleetaploozas, and I probably get more episodes of sleet than I do flurries. And the 1.04 for me seems low too.  Figures Burns would come up with a grain of salt site   T

[dsaur]

Percentage wise it is awful for sure. Of course, we are talking such small amounts that any practical effects are nil.

Well, nil may be unimportant to you spoiled Carolina people with all you mounds of snow, but down here in Ga. we take our Nil very seriously, I'll have you know   As I've said before we are experts in melting snow down here and nil might have piled up except for the melting as it falls part.  T

[BIG FROSTY]

. I'm all in on this forecast! Not reading another one the rest of the year! If this was even half right, this will best winter since 2010!!

I second this!

[dsaur]

Wow, a pigs with wings forecast with no messy science facts to back it up.  What's not to like   I'm headed down the my secret underground sled factory/particle accelerator to polish my runners.  Looks like my Sept first freeze prediction might be a tad too late!  T

[metalicwx366]

Firsthand Weather only mentioned two factors for winter weather, weak El Nino (Lolxz no model is showing that, looks like a Neutral winter), and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation . Not sure why they expect a much more negative North Atlantic Oscillation when the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation will be in the positive phase which favors and more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. Also didn't say anything about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which has been huge lately in forecasting winter weather. The PDO is strong this year unlike in 2009-2010 winter where it was weak and not much of a factor. The Pacific has made our last two SE winters crappy.

[jburns]

 Well, the "practical effects" aren't relevant to my point about very inaccurate stats. Also, I'm recommending not to trust their stats for cities with normally large amounts of snow, where huge practical effects would be in play. Actually, for a place like the Atlanta area, where significant snow is uncommon and the amount of snow removal equipment/budget size isn't impressive, I'd argue that practical effects aren't necessarily so nil. Consider the difference between 0.5" and the actual of ~2.5" for Marietta. Over a five year period, we're talking the difference between just 2.5" and a much more respectable (for the deep south) 12.5". Moreover, some of this area's "snowfall" is actually sleetfall, which has a much bigger impact per inch.

 

I agree on the inaccuracy of the site.   As for the rest of your post, go for it.  

 

If you go for a 100 year period for Marietta, you're talking about the difference between 50" and  250".  Now if we take it all the way back the the last ice age, the difference would be staggering!!

[GaWx]

I agree on the inaccuracy of the site.   As for the rest of your post, go for it.  

 

If you go for a 100 year period for Marietta, you're talking about the difference between 50" and  250".  Now if we take it all the way back the the last ice age, the difference would be staggering!!

 

 Lol! Ok, ok. But be careful or you'll get Tony very upset! He's already on the edge of losing it as we speak. We deep southerners take every half inch of snow and especially sleet very seriously. Our 1/2" of sleet is equivalent to about 1.5" of snow. So, even a half inch down here isn't anything about which to sneeze.

[MikeGold]

MikeG... beautiful pictures. Would be nice to have that view with a fresh hot cup of coffee in the morning hours.

 

 

 

If it makes you feel any better I used to live in Pearson, Homerville. A year each town back in 95-97. Back then it did get cold durring the winters but still mild in a way. I was about 10-11ish but I remember a few nights in Pearson it did get down to the 10-20 range. That one morning I remember of what my dad said "sh*t its 11 degrees outside". There was a couple nights of disturbed weather which it was raining in Pearson near 40 while places deeper in the woods N/W toward Albany had R/S mix falling. But just sharing some history with ya from what I expierence .... dont get your hopes all up. The only logicial thing to do for cold and snow is move north.

 

Thank you! I hoped a few pics of last Winter would help get some in the mood for this upcoming Winter.  As a storm chaser, its second nature for me to simply travel to a location that has weather I prefer as oppose to simply staying home and complaining about the weather I have! (or expect to get going forward.) It is always greener on the other side of the fence but yes-the weather is indeed interesting somewhere else besides your own front yard!  I travel back and forth between Balsam, NC and Michigan which is where my primary residence is. I mix in storm chasing trips out in the Plains and a few visits to the snowbelt during the Winter and I feel I get enough variety to satisfy my voracious appetite for weather!

 

Few more pics from last one..first is from late February taken of the second highest elevation private home in North Carolina. (Note that big wheels on that truck-access there can be blocked for months at a time.)The second is of my front gate back in November and the 3rd after an ice storm in January on the mountain top.

[FLweather]

Thanks for sharing Mike.

[mackerel_sky]

Ok, got the old farmers almanac today!!! This isn't for the faint of heart! It says cold and snowy for all of VA,NC, SC and northeast corner of GA!! . It has a big snowflake over Greenville and Columbia SC! The almanac has spoken! Gonna be a lot of snow this winter! They say neutral to weak Niño and cool phase of PDO, warm AMO, and cold phase of NAO for most of the winter!

[mackerel_sky]

And not that anybody cares , but next summer, hotter and wetter than normal

[metalicwx366]

I don't see how we are going to have a weak El Nino by winter. Maybe by next summer though.