metalicwx366 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the Pacific sucks, winter will suck. It's just that simple. NO. If there is an early east coast snowstorm, winter will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I guarantee some mets will say above normal snowfall, historical, blizzard, and mega pattern. That is all I can really guarantee at this time. Hopefully they are right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No the timeframe will keep getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 No the timeframe will keep getting pushed back. That too. I even do that...sometimes the models are just to quick most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 Time to start looking at the long range Beijing model and what the ENSO might lean towards. #December2Remember2013Wilkes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 lol can't wait. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 6h CFSV2 with Weathebell tolling fast starting winter.From July, coldest start to winter on US model I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 lol can't wait. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 6h CFSV2 with Weathebell tolling fast starting winter.From July, coldest start to winter on US model I have seen I sure CAN wait... fargin cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 lol can't wait. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 6h CFSV2 with Weathebell tolling fast starting winter.From July, coldest start to winter on US model I have seen That's a thing of beauty. Can you say weak el'nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 That's a thing of beauty. Can you say weak el'nino? It's only half the story. Cold yes, but here's the precipitation outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 That's a thing of beauty. Can you say weak el'nino?. I think they said that last year as well?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUProud Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Snow map. Check out the spelling for the southernmost area, pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Snow map. Check out the spelling for the southernmost area, pretty funny. How much for Waycross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 How much for Waycross? Bellow Average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Bellow Average There will definitely be some bellowing. lol at below average for Waycross. Average Annual Snowfall, Waycross, GA 0.11 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 There will definitely be some bellowing. lol at below average for Waycross. Average Annual Snowfall, Waycross, GA 0.11 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Bellow Average. When did this conversation change from winter temps to IQ for Waycrossians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 And once again much below average stops in a neat line right at the Ga. border. I think these map makers need to take some art courses. They'd learn real quick nature doesn't work in straight lines either with borders or freakin' Inter State Hwys. The freakin' battle zone, and MetalMan's bellow zone don't have no stinkin' straight lines, but the below average screams to a halt all across the border, lol. Dang simpletons . Can't even make a map that will never happen, that I could believe in T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Not great news from this long range model but I put little value in these. That said it is a model and worth posting. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/very-warm-and-humid-start-to-the-week-in-the-east/15176236 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Not great news from this long range model but I put little value in these. That said it is a model and worth posting. image.jpg image.jpg http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/very-warm-and-humid-start-to-the-week-in-the-east/15176236 Looks like they are going with a typical La-Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Not great news from this long range model but I put little value in these. That said it is a model and worth posting. image.jpg image.jpg http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/very-warm-and-humid-start-to-the-week-in-the-east/15176236 I'd weight this higher than any cold/snowy-showing model, just based on persistence. When the Pacific shows its hand, we'll know the likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 I'd weight this higher than any cold/snowy-showing model, just based on persistence. When the Pacific shows its hand, we'll know the likely outcome.Apparently @ Weather Advance on twitter says there is a correlation with the AAO. So now we have a new factor along with the GWO, October, Siberia, and all that other stuff listed in that thread we had back in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Looks like they are going with a typical La-Nina pattern. Just to clarify, this isn't an accuweather forecast. It is a computer model so there is no bias. If I misread your post I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 21, 2013 Share Posted July 21, 2013 Just to clarify, this isn't an accuweather forecast. It is a computer model so there is no bias. If I misread your post I apologize. The forecast seems to be based on La-Nina conditions. I realize it is computer generated. A southeast ridge and a cool Pacific northwest is typical La-Nina. Hope that clarifies my statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 From Aug 6th update of the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index)... "The updated (June-July) MEI has drifted further down to -.47, for the first time dropping into weak La Niña rankings since January-February 2012, at present 17th lowest out of 64 cases. Of the 10 nearest ranked June-July cases since 1950, fully seven recovered (or remained in) ENSO-neutral status by the end of the calendar year, while the other three ended up classified as La Niña by that time. While the current MEI ranking is lower than last month's, the odds for La Niña are comparatively lower. Furthermore, recent circulation anomalies are clearly not as indicative of La Niña conditions as one would expect from almost -0.5 sigma for the MEI. We have now reached the time of year when drastic transitions are much less common than during boreal spring, and the MEI has indeed dropped back into weak La Niña territory. Thus, either continued weak La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions are much more likely for the remainder of 2013 than a return of El Niño." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Hey, Michelle! Can a banished person even have a thread? Why not give it to Griteater, if he wants it. Not taking your Ritalin shouldn't qualify you for a big thread with winter coming on. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Hey, Michelle! Can a banished person even have a thread? Why not give it to Griteater, if he wants it. Not taking your Ritalin shouldn't qualify you for a big thread with winter coming on. T For some reason I can't find what I'm looking for from my phone to change it If someone would like to start a thread I'll lock this one away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I picked out 7 summers that matched this summers precipitaion patterns and anomalies the best. Most of these summers had one thing in common right off the bat! They were mostly neutral to positive NAO summers like this one. Im starting to believe more and more in the theory that a pos NAO during summer means cooler and wetter conditions here. Anyways.. here are the years where the summer precip patterns best match the current one.1967 1971 1989 1992 1994 2003 2004Here are those years averaged out into one for summer precip anomalies and you can see that a clear pattern emerges Here are the following winter temp anomalies averaged out into one from the same years. A clear pattern also emerges and its not a good one for winter weather lovers especially with the expected +phase of the QBO which also statistically favors a neutral to positive winter AO/NAO phase. Likewise.. a positive QBO typically favors a +NAO/AO. The majority of these analogs also feature a +QBO. Just some data for you..dont shoot the messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I picked out 7 summers that matched this summers precipitaion patterns and anomalies the best. Most of these summers had one thing in common right off the bat! They were mostly neutral to positive NAO summers like this one. Im starting to believe more and more in the theory that a pos NAO during summer means cooler and wetter conditions here. Anyways.. here are the years where the summer precip patterns best match the current one. 1967 1971 1989 1992 1994 2003 2004 Here are those years averaged out into one for summer precip anomalies and you can see that a clear pattern emerges Here are the following winter temp anomalies averaged out into one from the same years. A clear pattern also emerges and its not a good one for winter weather lovers especially with the expected +phase of the QBO which also statistically favors a neutral to positive winter AO/NAO phase. Likewise.. a positive QBO typically favors a +NAO/AO. The majority of these analogs also feature a +QBO. Just some data for you..dont shoot the messenger From everything I've read, your dead on. All we can hope for is something not easily forecasted like the NAO. I agree with the higher chances of a positive NAO but this has been the wild card (for good or bad) in most of our past winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 From what I learned last year, all these signals are useless , unless the Pacific cooperates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 From what I learned last year, all these signals are useless , unless the Pacific cooperatesTrue. Too much warm air flooding the country kills everything. Here's hoping for at least a few weeks of -NAO and +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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