The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

[FLweather]

A+++ for effort. Takes alot to present it that way. Major kudos to you.

 

I hope you are right. Which I already know but just conformation that this winter will be alot more interesting than the prior 2 potentially.

 

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

Here is what I am forecasting for this winter, near average temperatures and near average snowfall for most locations across the southeast, with the only exception being higher locations in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia.

With ENSO and the PDO not really affecting us this year (a neutral ENSO does not help us determine what the weather will be like here), I believe the NAO and PNA will each affect our weather enormously this year. I lay out all the details about each oscillation on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast.

Here is the forecast part from my website:

[WxJordan]

A+++ for effort. Takes alot to present it that way. Major kudos to you.

 

I hope you are right. Which I already know but just conformation that this winter will be alot more interesting than the prior 2 potentially.

 

That is what I hope, at least. I just don't see any major oscillations driving the pattern, unless you make an argument for the PDO. I would like to see at least one nice winter storm moving through the southeast United States.

[ncjoaquin]

That is what I hope, at least. I just don't see any major oscillations driving the pattern, unless you make an argument for the PDO. I would like to see at least one nice winter storm moving through the southeast United States.

 

You could be on TV today. Your presentation was awesome. Hopefully, since you are at UNCA, you will get our winters from 3 and 4 years back, and not the last 2. 

[1300m]

 

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

Here is what I am forecasting for this winter, near average temperatures and near average snowfall for most locations across the southeast, with the only exception being higher locations in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia.

With ENSO and the PDO not really affecting us this year (a neutral ENSO does not help us determine what the weather will be like here), I believe the NAO and PNA will each affect our weather enormously this year. I lay out all the details about each oscillation on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast.

Here is the forecast part from my website:

 

  

  

 

One thing that could potentially give us a clue about the AO and NAO is Northern Hemisphere snowfall, and particularly Siberian snowfall. Northern Hemisphere snowfall is above normal thus far - in fact, September 2013 ranked as the 6th snowiest of the past 45 years. However, the research done looking at how Siberian snowfall may affect the AO/NAO showed that October is the pivotal month where the rate of snowfall increase may drive the predominant phase of the AO the upcoming winter. Last October ranked 11th out of 45, and the AO did end up predominantly negative for the winter, including March 2013 which recorded the 5th most negative monthly AO value on record for any month. 

 

Unfortunately as you said, the NAO is the ultimate wildcard for the eastern US and as last winter showed us, it doesn't always respond to the AO (at least until it severely dips negatively and the jet stream really buckles). That said, I have to imagine if we see another snowy October in Siberia that better things are in store for us this winter.

 

P.S. Nice job on the video, I commend you for taking a shot at the forecast!

[metalicwx366]

Nice presentation Wx jordan. Great to see a winter forecast that just doesn't have a blue on one side of the country and red on the other.

I'm in the near average, so I can expect 0.10 snow

his winter.

[WxJordan]

  

  

 

One thing that could potentially give us a clue about the AO and NAO is Northern Hemisphere snowfall, and particularly Siberian snowfall. Northern Hemisphere snowfall is above normal thus far - in fact, September 2013 ranked as the 6th snowiest of the past 45 years. However, the research done looking at how Siberian snowfall may affect the AO/NAO showed that October is the pivotal month where the rate of snowfall increase may drive the predominant phase of the AO the upcoming winter. Last October ranked 11th out of 45, and the AO did end up predominantly negative for the winter, including March 2013 which recorded the 5th most negative monthly AO value on record for any month. 

 

Unfortunately as you said, the NAO is the ultimate wildcard for the eastern US and as last winter showed us, it doesn't always respond to the AO (at least until it severely dips negatively and the jet stream really buckles). That said, I have to imagine if we see another snowy October in Siberia that better things are in store for us this winter.

 

P.S. Nice job on the video, I commend you for taking a shot at the forecast!

Very interesting, I have not read a report about Siberia snow and the AO index. Based on the article, that will be something to watch as we move forward this month. I will attempt to research this a little bit more and maybe include it in my update forecast later this month or in early November.

[Tacoma]

Well I saw a wooly worm which was black on both ends and brown in the middle.  Then a couple of hours later I saw a solid black wooly worm, both seem to be pretty good signs.

[jburns]

Well I saw a wooly worm which was black on both ends and brown in the middle.  Then a couple of hours later I saw a solid black wooly worm, both seem to be pretty good signs.

 

Of what?  Interracial marriages among wooly worms?  That's been legal for years and years. 

[buckeyefan1]

You could be on TV today. Your presentation was awesome. Hopefully, since you are at UNCA, you will get our winters from 3 and 4 years back, and not the last 2. 

Hi    I know frozen precip possibilities are near once you arrive.  

 

Very interesting, I have not read a report about Siberia snow and the AO index. Based on the article, that will be something to watch as we move forward this month. I will attempt to research this a little bit more and maybe include it in my update forecast later this month or in early November.

fyi....I request a -AO please     Very nice presentation wxjordan, I'll take average.... good luck!!   

 

Well I saw a wooly worm which was black on both ends and brown in the middle.  Then a couple of hours later I saw a solid black wooly worm, both seem to be pretty good signs.

I've only seen solid black so I'm patiently waiting for winters arrival   

[FallsLake]

The build up of snow cover in Siberia is doing well. Looking at the GFS, it looks like North America will start doing well in the extended. The latest 6z run shows a nice pattern (cold with storm systems) over much of Canada conducive to building snow cover.

 

So, looking good so far.   

[Suncat]

I noticed yesterday that the bedraggled stray tom cat we've been feeding on our back deck is putting on a thicker coat of fur.  Most obvious are the guard hairs, which are quite long.  Either this is a sign of a cold winter to come or the three to four cans of cat food he's getting from us every day are doing him some good.

[Tacoma]

Of what?  Interracial marriages among wooly worms?  That's been legal for years and years. 

uh, no, the old winter weather prediction of which I'm sure you've heard of.

[jburns]

uh, no, the old winter weather prediction of which I'm sure you've heard of.

I might have. 

[FranknRaleigh]

Cold Rain,

I don't know that I could have put it better. Many decades of ENSO records clearly show certain clearcut tendencies based on ENSO phase. So, ENSO is quite an important factor and well worth monitoring. However, the same data shows that individual winters can still easily vary from the tendencies in any direction, "good" or "bad". That's why I'm calling them tendencies as opposed to likelihoods. The same could be said about other factors like the NAO, AO, PDO, and other indices. Also, when there is one index that is favoring "good"/"bad" and another favors the opposite, it just adds to the uncertainty.

One reason ENSO is followed closely is its relative multimonth predictability since it is SST based. The PDO is similar in that respect. OTOH, the NAO and AO both tend to flip-flop around a bit more since they're atmosphere based as opposed to ocean temp. based thus making them less likely to stay similar throughout a season and also making them a lot less predictable. So, though they're quite important indices for the winter, it is very difficult on October 2nd to predict how they'll tend to be in the upcoming winter and they'll still likely flip around a bit during winter, regardless. OTOH, we already know that a neutral ENSO is way more likely than El Nino this winter.

Another thing to keep in mind about ENSO is that there are certain tendencies of other indices (like NAO) that are associated with certain ENSO phases. So, knowing ENSO may help somewhat in having a better idea about how the NAO will likely tend to be in winter.

One additional thing to keep in mind is that randomness, alone, could be enough to make for a "great" winter in much of the SE US in terms of wintry precip. since just one major winter storm is often enough to make it memorable and get places well above seasonal normals for wintry precip. So, for that reason, the SE probably has a better chance to eek out a great winter than, say, the NE when major indices are not favorable.

Just imagine the winter possibilities in the upper south if a moderate El Nino is coupled with a negative NAO!  Remember winter 2009-2010?  Not a lot of snow totals here in Raleigh, just frequent small snow amounts.  However, Beech Mountain, NC received 184 inches that winter.

[Cold Rain]

Just imagine the winter possibilities in the upper south if a moderate El Nino is coupled with a negative NAO! Remember winter 2009-2010? Not a lot of snow totals here in Raleigh, just frequent small snow amounts. However, Beech Mountain, NC received 184 inches that winter.

Welcome aboard, Frank! Nice to have another Raleigh poster.

I wonder if there is any correlation to classical CADs in October to the upcoming winter,,,,

[mackerel_sky]

Welcome aboard, Frank! Nice to have another Raleigh poster.

I wonder if there is any correlation to classical CADs in October to the upcoming winter,,,,

. Not sure, but didn't we have a few last October , and we know what happened last winter. Was last year when we had the 70 degree wedge in July? Or the year before, that didn't help either. But I would like to see a good high lock in this winter, and not bet transient !! I am sick of transient highs in winter!!! Need more blocking!

[Cold Rain]

. Not sure, but didn't we have a few last October , and we know what happened last winter. Was last year when we had the 70 degree wedge in July? Or the year before, that didn't help either. But I would like to see a good high lock in this winter, and not bet transient !! I am sick of transient highs in winter!!! Need more blocking!

I couldn't remember about last winter. But yeah, it seems like all we get these days in the winter are HPs slamming due south from the Plains to the Gulf, resulting in a nice cold and dry pattern. Or we get a weak HP rapidly moving east, through, the northeast and offshore, resulting in a little front end token ZR or IP changing to rain.

Hopefully, we can get a strong HP to lock in the Lakes area or northeast and a nice southern slider.

[WxJordan]

I couldn't remember about last winter. But yeah, it seems like all we get these days in the winter are HPs slamming due south from the Plains to the Gulf, resulting in a nice cold and dry pattern. Or we get a weak HP rapidly moving east, through, the northeast and offshore, resulting in a little front end token ZR or IP changing to rain.

Hopefully, we can get a strong HP to lock in the Lakes area or northeast and a nice southern slider.

It would be nice to get a nice area of high pressure to position itself just offshore, helping to strengthen an area of low pressure moving over the Gulf of Mexico pumping copious amounts of moisture before quickly turning up the East Coast and bombing out all the way. One storm like that would be very nice this year!

[Poimen]

So, has this been posted in this forum yet? A friend from up north sent this to me today. I have no comment on it's reliability, but I would not complain if it came true.

 

Here's to a good winter. Maybe this week's CAD is a sign of things to come?

 

[metalicwx366]

Lmao there it goes. Been waiting for a map like that. Classic winter temperature outlook. Somebody posts a map like that each year. Even puts my backyard in well below average temperatures. The snowfall outlook makes absolutely no sense. Just look at Arkansas and Texas.

Number 1 doesn't really make much sense. Number 7 happens nearly every spring.

[WxJordan]

If there was reason for the forecast, that would be nice. There is no synoptic scale reasoning behind the forecast, which bothers me. You could guess that there will be above average snow, but it would be hard to make an argument for above average or below average snow at the moment. As we continue to progress towards winter; however, hopefully more data will become available to help us make an accurate winter weather prediction.

[WxJordan]

Kind of off topic, but it does pertain to forecasting. Do you like the probability model that I used to develop the forecast? I felt like it would be appropriate to incorporate the probability of above average, below average, or average snow and temperatures. I felt like it made sense to me, but I was worried that the public would not be able to understand what that means. I also felt that it was important to show the different oscillations that we use to forecast, to help prove that there was a logical reason behind the forecast.

I am excited about the challenges this upcoming winter will bring forecasting, because I feel like it will be a challenge as it is every year and not as simple as the past few winters.

 

 

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

Here is what I am forecasting for this winter, near average temperatures and near average snowfall for most locations across the southeast, with the only exception being higher locations in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia.

With ENSO and the PDO not really affecting us this year (a neutral ENSO does not help us determine what the weather will be like here), I believe the NAO and PNA will each affect our weather enormously this year. I lay out all the details about each oscillation on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast.

Here is the forecast part from my website:

[metalicwx366]

Jordan, the link to your website doesn't work.

Btw, yeah I like that probability model. I'm pretty sure the public should be able to understand what that means. The way I read it is, we have a great chance at seeing average temperatures and equally likely chances of seeing above, below, or normal snowfall.

Another thing is the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Do you think that will be of any importance this year? It will be in a positive phase(westerly phase) which tends to favor a more neutral to positive North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation and less SSW events. The negative phase(easterly phase) favors more SSW events, stronger blocking, and a more negative NAO.

[FallsLake]

The current pattern setting up is very encouraging to me as a sign for the upcoming winter. I have not performed any statistical research, but it seems the fall patterns can predict or dictate the upcoming winter in accordance to how and when they occur. The whole premise is that a cold October will lead to a warm November and then to a cold start of December -- that can establish the primary winter pattern.

 

Of course you can find exceptions like December 1989. Cold start to December but the rest of the winter was very tame. But, that year had a strong La Nina which had a higher impact on the global pattern. This year we’re somewhere around neutral.   

[Met1985]

The current pattern setting up is very encouraging to me as a sign for the upcoming winter. I have not performed any statistical research, but it seems the fall patterns can predict or dictate the upcoming winter in accordance to how and when they occur. The whole premise is that a cold October will lead to a warm November and then to a cold start of December -- that can establish the primary winter pattern.

 

Of course you can find exceptions like December 1989. Cold start to December but the rest of the winter was very tame. But, that year had a strong La Nina which had a higher impact on the global pattern. This year we’re somewhere around neutral.   

Ya Robert had a nice write up on Facebook yesterday about the current pattern and what may lead into winter. It does look encouraging.

[Poimen]

I only posted that for fun. I believe there is some reasoning behind the forecast, I just don't know what it is. My friend just sent me the image on Facebook. For some reason I think the forecaster is using the winter of 1962-63 as an analog.

 

But again, I just posted it for fun. I love this time of year because it is filled with anticipation of what the winter may bring.

 

As always, I'm hoping for the best but bracing for the worst.

[Mr Bob]

They have reasoning on their website but it is no more reliable than anyone else's...I always love the "proprietary statistical technique" reason! No one drives web traffic by going for average or warmer than normal winters.

[tnweathernut]

Though the sample size is small (1998-present), the current snapshot showing snow advance over the first seven days of October is off to a good start (possible - AO).  This is just one piece of the puzzle, but hoping the rate of advance b/w 30 and 60 degrees N continues!

[WxJordan]

Okay, try this link: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast

That should work, but anyways, I did look at the QBO this morning and it is clearly positive. The question becomes what happens as we move forward towards winter and does it begin to turn negative. Still yet, we have had pretty substantial snow storms and cold when the QBO is positive (example 2010-2011). I think we will have to wait and see what will happen.

 

They have reasoning on their website but it is no more reliable than anyone else's...I always love the "proprietary statistical technique" reason! No one drives web traffic by going for average or warmer than normal winters.

I can see the reasons why the winter would be cooler than average, but as one of the atmospheric science professors at UNC-Asheville and I were discussing yesterday, it is very difficult to say that it will be cooler than average or warmer than average at the moment. With ENSO being neutral and our inability to predict important oscillations more than a week in advance, it is hard to say what the winter will hold, unless there is a correlation between the cool summer and a cool winter, which I could not find any correlation.

 

 

I only posted that for fun. I believe there is some reasoning behind the forecast, I just don't know what it is. My friend just sent me the image on Facebook. For some reason I think the forecaster is using the winter of 1962-63 as an analog.

 

But again, I just posted it for fun. I love this time of year because it is filled with anticipation of what the winter may bring.

 

As always, I'm hoping for the best but bracing for the worst.

 

I actually came close to using 1962-1963 as an analog, but it was just barely under the criteria I used. We will wait and see what happens as we move forward because I could see the winter breaking three different ways this year, cold, normal, or warm. I would love to see it break towards the cold.

[metalicwx366]

The whole premise is that a cold October will lead to a warm November and then to a cold start of December -- that can establish the primary winter pattern.

Of course you can find exceptions like December 1989. Cold start to December but the rest of the winter was very tame.

The problem is, this October hasn't been cold.

Last year we have a cold end to October, very cold November, and it stayed warm until March.

1989 was a white Christmas down here and in a lot of rare places.