The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

[Suncat]

My avatar has decided to dress for a cold winter.  Hopefully this will not be a jinx.

[packbacker]

The recent Alaska/Gulf of Alaska mean trough/low has rapidly cooled the north Pacific into a more classic -PDO look.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That sure is ugly...I saw your post from a couple of weeks ago on region 3.4 Nino conditions having a cool down, which is reflected in the CFSv2 forecast but after that every member shows nice warming...you buying it?  Also, the NAO has been positive (on average) for the past 5 months, let's hope that turns around by Dec/Jan.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

DT posted this on FB today.

 

CFS get on boArd the WEAK EL NINO track.. new OCT forecast...

this is why you have to be soooooo careful making winter forecast too early ... and this is why I think the accu wx forecast is already in trouble

earlier I posted the new snowfall map for the Northern Hemisphere showing it to be ahead of last sept 30 AND well ahead of the mean and climo

here the CFS now " sees" the weak El Nino event for this winter that the Euro model has been showing since JUNE 1. This SIGNIFICANT because the CFS has been arguing AGAINST a weak El Nino event developing

for those that dont know weak el nino ...WEAK ...strongly favor at least Normal or Below Normal termps over eastern US and active snowy winter pa

[metalicwx366]

Lol @ DT. How is accuweather in trouble because of what one horrid model shows? We never got the historic cold it showed for January last year.

Btw Winter Storm Atlas might be born soon.

[GaWx]

 

DT posted this on FB today.

 

CFS get on boArd the WEAK EL NINO track.. new OCT forecast...

this is why you have to be soooooo careful making winter forecast too early ... and this is why I think the accu wx forecast is already in trouble

earlier I posted the new snowfall map for the Northern Hemisphere showing it to be ahead of last sept 30 AND well ahead of the mean and climo

here the CFS now " sees" the weak El Nino event for this winter that the Euro model has been showing since JUNE 1. This SIGNIFICANT because the CFS has been arguing AGAINST a weak El Nino event developing

for those that dont know weak el nino ...WEAK ...strongly favor at least Normal or Below Normal termps over eastern US and active snowy winter pa

 

 

 Whereas I'd LOVE to see a weak El Nino in time for winter, I don't buy it at all at this time based on history going back to 1871 per Nino 3.4 and JMA SST records. Going back to 1871, there have been ZERO El Ninos get started by the winter when August, much less Sept. didn't have a positive 3.4 anomaly. In other words, for all 38 fall and/or winter El Ninos, the prior August always had at least a small positive. Well, August of 2013 had a -0.3. So, it wasn't even that close to 0. Moreover, Sep. looks to come in slightly negative per the weeklies. So, I'm calling the chance for a weak Nino in time for winter (say DJF trimonth) based on the ONI definition (5 trimonths in a row of +0.5+ in 3.4) to be under 5%. Now, next spring and/or summer would have a somewhat higher chance since it is further out in time and would allow more time for warming.

 

 I'm just a messenger, folks. Put the guns down, please.

[packbacker]

Whereas I'd LOVE to see a weak El Nino in time for winter, I don't buy it at all at this time based on history going back to 1871 per Nino 3.4 and JMA SST records. Going back to 1871, there have been ZERO El Ninos get started by the winter when August, much less Sept. didn't have a positive 3.4 anomaly. In other words, for all 38 fall and/or winter El Ninos, the prior August always had at least a small positive. Well, August of 2013 had a -0.3. So, it wasn't even that close to 0. Moreover, Sep. looks to come in slightly negative per the weeklies. So, I'm calling the chance for a weak Nino in time for winter (say DJF trimonth) based on the ONI definition (5 trimonths in a row of +0.5+ in 3.4) to be under 5%. Now, next spring and/or summer would have a somewhat higher chance since it is further out in time and would allow more time for warming.

 

 I'm just a messenger, folks. Put the guns down, please.

It probably won't be classified as a weak nino, assuming the CFS pans out but the positive 3.4 SST should be a plus for us.

[HKY_WX]

I would love to see that weak nino materialize. We need to see that show up on the enso model consensus means.

[griteater]

That sure is ugly...I saw your post from a couple of weeks ago on region 3.4 Nino conditions having a cool down, which is reflected in the CFSv2 forecast but after that every member shows nice warming...you buying it?  Also, the NAO has been positive (on average) for the past 5 months, let's hope that turns around by Dec/Jan.

Hola PB.  I agree with GaWx's comments.  Looking at the ENSO models, the average of the dynamical models for fall/winter is 0.0 rising to 0.3.  The average of the statistical models for fall/winter is -0.4 rising to -0.2.  The statistical models outperformed the dynamical ones last fall/winter, and I don't see any reason to go against that this year.  The SOI has averaged in negative neutral readings since March (in the 0 to +8 range).  The subsurface water temps are fairly neutral.  There aren't any 850mb westerly wind anomalies forecasted in the ENSO 3.4 region over the next 2 weeks to induce warming.  The MEI has landed in weak La Nina conditions the last 2 months.  I think we are headed for neutral or negative neutral, but with weak La Nina the next most likely as opposed to weak El Nino...but we shall see.

[packbacker]

Hola PB.  I agree with GaWx's comments.  Looking at the ENSO models, the average of the dynamical models for fall/winter is 0.0 rising to 0.3.  The average of the statistical models for fall/winter is -0.4 rising to -0.2.  The statistical models outperformed the dynamical ones last fall/winter, and I don't see any reason to go against that this year.  The SOI has averaged in negative neutral readings since March (in the 0 to +8 range).  The subsurface water temps are fairly neutral.  There aren't any 850mb westerly wind anomalies forecasted in the ENSO 3.4 region over the next 2 weeks to induce warming.  The MEI has landed in weak La Nina conditions the last 2 months.  I think we are headed for neutral or negative neutral, but with weak La Nina the next most likely as opposed to weak El Nino...but we shall see.

 

If that is the case this is going to be a repeat of last year, maybe we can get lucky.  Let's see how things look in early November.

[1300m]

 Whereas I'd LOVE to see a weak El Nino in time for winter, I don't buy it at all at this time based on history going back to 1871 per Nino 3.4 and JMA SST records. Going back to 1871, there have been ZERO El Ninos get started by the winter when August, much less Sept. didn't have a positive 3.4 anomaly. In other words, for all 38 fall and/or winter El Ninos, the prior August always had at least a small positive. Well, August of 2013 had a -0.3. So, it wasn't even that close to 0. Moreover, Sep. looks to come in slightly negative per the weeklies. So, I'm calling the chance for a weak Nino in time for winter (say DJF trimonth) based on the ONI definition (5 trimonths in a row of +0.5+ in 3.4) to be under 5%. Now, next spring and/or summer would have a somewhat higher chance since it is further out in time and would allow more time for warming.

 

 I'm just a messenger, folks. Put the guns down, please.

 

Supporting what GaWx said, research conducted by the State Climate Office of North Carolina found that an El Nino has never emerged this late in the year. If it did happen, it would be unprecedented.

[LithiaWx]

Have we not learned anything from the past few years? Teleconnections trump ENSO.

I'm not even slightly worried about winter at this point.

[Cold Rain]

Have we not learned anything from the past few years? Teleconnections trump ENSO.

I'm not even slightly worried about winter at this point.

While that's true for specific periods in the winter, ENSO can provide a general background for a more favorable winter or a more hostile one, overall.

It's kind of like getting snow to fall: a perfectly timed phase can easily trump an otherwise unfavorable pattern, but a favorable pattern provides a wider envelop in which a snowfall can occur.

But your concern (or lack of it) about winter is wise at this point. There's still much left to be determined about how things will shake out. Hopefully, over the next 30-45 days, some Winter will start to show its hand.

[1300m]

While that's true for specific periods in the winter, ENSO can provide a general background for a more favorable winter or a more hostile one, overall.

It's kind of like getting snow to fall: a perfectly timed phase can easily trump an otherwise unfavorable pattern, but a favorable pattern provides a wider envelop in which a snowfall can occur.

But your concern (or lack of it) about winter is wise at this point. There's still much left to be determined about how things will shake out. Hopefully, over the next 30-45 days, some Winter will start to show its hand.

 

Brilliantly put.

[LithiaWx]

Do you guys not remember what happened three-four years ago? Wall to wall cold in a weak Nina?

I don't put much stock into weak/neutral ENSO conditions. I'll state again teleconnections will trump ENSO.

A prolonged - AO and NAO will dominate sensible weather regardless of the ENSO state. Since we are no at a point to be able to accurately predict teleconnections winter is a big ?

[MADDOGG]

agree not saying it will happen, but the way this year has been i would expect anything!

[GaWx]

Cold Rain,

I don't know that I could have put it better. Many decades of ENSO records clearly show certain clearcut tendencies based on ENSO phase. So, ENSO is quite an important factor and well worth monitoring. However, the same data shows that individual winters can still easily vary from the tendencies in any direction, "good" or "bad". That's why I'm calling them tendencies as opposed to likelihoods. The same could be said about other factors like the NAO, AO, PDO, and other indices. Also, when there is one index that is favoring "good"/"bad" and another favors the opposite, it just adds to the uncertainty.

One reason ENSO is followed closely is its relative multimonth predictability since it is SST based. The PDO is similar in that respect. OTOH, the NAO and AO both tend to flip-flop around a bit more since they're atmosphere based as opposed to ocean temp. based thus making them less likely to stay similar throughout a season and also making them a lot less predictable. So, though they're quite important indices for the winter, it is very difficult on October 2nd to predict how they'll tend to be in the upcoming winter and they'll still likely flip around a bit during winter, regardless. OTOH, we already know that a neutral ENSO is way more likely than El Nino this winter.

Another thing to keep in mind about ENSO is that there are certain tendencies of other indices (like NAO) that are associated with certain ENSO phases. So, knowing ENSO may help somewhat in having a better idea about how the NAO will likely tend to be in winter.

One additional thing to keep in mind is that randomness, alone, could be enough to make for a "great" winter in much of the SE US in terms of wintry precip. since just one major winter storm is often enough to make it memorable and get places well above seasonal normals for wintry precip. So, for that reason, the SE probably has a better chance to eek out a great winter than, say, the NE when major indices are not favorable.

[1300m]

Do you guys not remember what happened three-four years ago? Wall to wall cold in a weak Nina?

I don't put much stock into weak/neutral ENSO conditions. I'll state again teleconnections will trump ENSO.

A prolonged - AO and NAO will dominate sensible weather regardless of the ENSO state. Since we are no at a point to be able to accurately predict teleconnections winter is a big ?

 

A weak AO/NAO can be just as meaningless as a weak ENSO pattern - see last year. It has been proposed that the Pacific wrecked the pattern last year, but one of the reasons this was possible was because the NAO never flexed it's muscle until March, and then we saw how the pattern responded. I agree that the NAO is the single most important teleconnection to eastern US weather, but if it's only a weak one it won't have much more impact than a weak ENSO phase.

 

The weather doesn't care what an index says, and too often folks get caught up in the mentality of: "Well, the NAO is negative or the MJO is in Phase 8!" When in reality they may be in those phases, but if it is only in that phase by number alone it doesn't mean much. 

[griteater]

Another thing to keep in mind about ENSO is that there are certain tendencies of other indices (like NAO) that are associated with certain ENSO phases. So, knowing ENSO may help somewhat in having a better idea about how the NAO will likely tend to be in winter.

Yes, and knowing the ENSO and PDO system should give ideas on the north Pacific pattern

[Cold Rain]

A weak AO/NAO can be just as meaningless as a weak ENSO pattern - see last year. It has been proposed that the Pacific wrecked the pattern last year, but one of the reasons this was possible was because the NAO never flexed it's muscle until March, and then we saw how the pattern responded. I agree that the NAO is the single most important teleconnection to eastern US weather, but if it's only a weak one it won't have much more impact than a weak ENSO phase.

The weather doesn't care what an index says, and too often folks get caught up in the mentality of: "Well, the NAO is negative or the MJO is in Phase 8!" When in reality they may be in those phases, but if is only in that phase by number alone it doesn't mean much.

That's a good point as well. The magnitude and "shape" of how these variables are configured matters a great deal to the effects we realize here.

With all of the variances and interactions of all of these things, it's amazing to think that we could ever even come close to accurately forecasting the winter pattern, months in advance. That's where Larry's statistical info and "atmospheric tendencies" come into play, I suppose. That data is very important to consider.

[jburns]

I'll state again teleconnections will trump ENSO.

That used to be true when our teleconnections used land lines. Now we teleconnect using cellular. It's a whole new ballgame.  

[packbacker]

2011 and 2012 had big tropical systems affect the NE and of course our winters sucked those years, maybe a quiet tropical season bodes well for us :-)

[WxJordan]

 

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

Here is what I am forecasting for this winter, near average temperatures and near average snowfall for most locations across the southeast, with the only exception being higher locations in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia.

With ENSO and the PDO not really affecting us this year (a neutral ENSO does not help us determine what the weather will be like here), I believe the NAO and PNA will each affect our weather enormously this year. I lay out all the details about each oscillation on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast.

Here is the forecast part from my website:

THE FORECAST

I decided to go with average temperatures across most of North Carolina and the southeast this winter, with the only exceptions near the gulf coast and the mountains and coastal regions. I went with above average temperatures near the gulf coast because cold air may have a tough time penetrating that far south. Mountains and coastal regions have a good chance of seeing below average temperatures.  The mountains will experience below average temperatures due to the increase in northwest flow this winter.  That is why I also predict above average snow for the mountain communities.  The coastal areas will see below average temperatures due to the cool Atlantic Ocean this year and possible onshore flow continuing to keep the coastal areas a little cooler than average.

 

THE PROBABILITIES

This year I decided to put a map in to explain the confidence in the forecast.  Right now, the chance of seeing average temperatures is 60%, with a 15% chance of above average temperatures, and a 25% chance of near normal temperatures.  There is a 40% chance that any given area will see average snow, with a 30% chance of above average snow, and a 30% chance of below average snow.

[jburns]

Nice presentation Jordan.  Of course it could be 100% wrong, so I'll wait for the congratulations.  

[WxJordan]

Nice presentation Jordan.  Of course it could be 100% wrong, so I'll wait for the congratulations.  

 

Thanks, and I agree that I could be totally wrong. I am batting a solid .000 in my winter weather forecast (0-2). I said it was going to be warm in 2011-2012 and it was cold early on (thanks NAO), and I said it was going to be cool in 2012-2013 and it was warm all winter long.... We will see.

[jburns]

Thanks, and I agree that I could be totally wrong. I am batting a solid .000 in my winter weather forecast (0-2). I said it was going to be warm in 2011-2012 and it was cold early on (thanks NAO), and I said it was going to be cool in 2012-2013 and it was warm all winter long.... We will see.

 

There weren't many correct outlooks last year, so you had a LOT of company.  It just came to my mind that in the end, meteorologists, weather weenies and even elementary school kids all end up at the same place, sitting somewhere in early December hoping it will snow.

[WxJordan]

There weren't many correct outlooks last year, so you had a LOT of company.  It just came to my mind that in the end, meteorologists, weather weenies and even elementary school kids all end up at the same place, sitting somewhere in early December hoping it will snow.

Absolutely! 

[BIG FROSTY]

 

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

Here is what I am forecasting for this winter, near average temperatures and near average snowfall for most locations across the southeast, with the only exception being higher locations in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia.

With ENSO and the PDO not really affecting us this year (a neutral ENSO does not help us determine what the weather will be like here), I believe the NAO and PNA will each affect our weather enormously this year. I lay out all the details about each oscillation on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast.

Here is the forecast part from my website:

Enjoyed the video, You should do these when we have a possible winter storm headed our way!   Thanks for posting!!!  Need to get your red tag also!   

[calculus1]

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

 

Thanks for sharing.  I enjoyed it.  Short, informative, to-the-point.  Well done.  As burns said, though, we'll have to wait to grade it!  At least you're willing to put it out there for a grade.  Not me.  I'll just wait and see what happens.

[Met1985]

 

Above is my 2013-2014 winter weather video that I made yesterday at the University of North Carolina-Asheville. I thought it would be cool to make a video in front of the green screen showing what to expect this winter, so here it is.

Here is what I am forecasting for this winter, near average temperatures and near average snowfall for most locations across the southeast, with the only exception being higher locations in the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia.

With ENSO and the PDO not really affecting us this year (a neutral ENSO does not help us determine what the weather will be like here), I believe the NAO and PNA will each affect our weather enormously this year. I lay out all the details about each oscillation on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/winter-forecast/2013-2014-forecast.

Here is the forecast part from my website:

Thanks for taking the time to post this and great presentation.

[mackerel_sky]

Nice presentation! It was well put together and informative.