The 2013-2014 Winter Outlook Thread

[Chattownsnow]

My cat has been pooping on the northern facing side of the litter box since august... That's gotta mean something.

[mackerel_sky]

I saw 2 all black wooly worms today!! Torch city !

[metalicwx366]

Why is metal worried about winter? Your yearly avg is one sleet pellet!

Lmao. How much do you average?

[metalicwx366]

I guess he's like the man who is married to a woman that will only have sex with him once a year. As the date approaches he gets more and more excited.

:lmao: Nice comparison.

[mackerel_sky]

Lmao. How much do you average?

. We are not much better off, I think our avg around GSP is 3 or 4 inches

[metalicwx366]

. We are not much better off, I think our avg around GSP is 3 or 4 inches

That's 30 to 40 times as much as we pick up here.

[mackerel_sky]

Wow! GSP airports avg annual snowfall is 4.7 inches. 30 year avg! Who'd of thunk it? It must have snowed a lot at some point the last 30 years, because the last 10-15 years have had a lot of duds

[dsaur]

Wow! GSP airports avg annual snowfall is 4.7 inches. 30 year avg! Who'd of thunk it? It must have snowed a lot at some point the last 30 years, because the last 10-15 years have had a lot of duds

In the late 60's I left Columbia in sleet, heading home to Atl., and by the time I got to the interstate in Greenville it was so deep the St. Patrol had up road blocks and had closed the interstate down to the Ga line.  I took back roads until I found an unguarded entrance ramp down the hwy, and had the interstate all to myself down to Atl.  I had the time of my life.  I was in a 59 VW that would go anywhere and I was zooming under bridges with my lights out, hitting the ice patches where water had poured off the overpasses, spinning out into the medium and back up again, lol.  Didn't see a soul until the depth let up down by near the Ga. welcome center.  What a hoot.  I always thought there was tons of snow up there ever since that night.  What a great, great time.  I rolled that same car on a sunny afternoon on that same stretch a few months later taking a tight inside curve exit ramp, so I decided that snow and sleet were charmed, because nothing happened to me on the snow drive, except pure fun.  Those old vw bugs were deadly bad about rolling, if you sneezed while driving  but they were great in the snow.

There will, on occasion be a biggie up that way...I can testify. T

[toxictwister00]

I saw 2 all black wooly worms today!! Torch city !

 

I saw a black/brown/black woolly worm about a week ago. Good thing I got a nice Levi's leather jacket for this winter then.  

[jburns]

I saw 2 all black wooly worms today!! Torch city !

 

Something about that statement sounds a bit racist.  

[tonysc]

. We are not much better off, I think our avg around GSP is 3 or 4 inches

 

 

Average for GSP is 6.8 inches.

[calculus1]

I saw multitudes of squished wooly worms on the roads today.  Anybody wanna analyze that?

[metalicwx366]

Lol @ AccuWeather 45 day forecasts. My coldest temperature was 69/48 on October 26 over the next 45 days.

[Avdave]

Lol @ AccuWeather 45 day forecasts. My coldest temperature was 69/48 on October 26 over the next 45 days.

Are your palm trees turning yet with fall foliage yet?

[metalicwx366]

Are your palm trees turning yet with fall foliage yet?

Indeed they are. Color is almost as great as the color near Mt Mitchell, NC.

[GaWx]

My webworms, invented by Al Gore, won't go away. Thousands of them! It is almost impossible to not squish one with each step! This must mean something. Anyone have Al's number?

[Avdave]

All ready for winter up here in Boone, tonight at CVS

 

[Met1985]

All ready for winter up here in Boone, tonight at CVS

 

photo(47).JPG

Lol someone must have told them the mountain snow thread was started!!!

[mackerel_sky]

I saw multitudes of squished wooly worms on the roads today. Anybody wanna analyze that?

. Yeah, if they were all black, then they were squished , like are dreams of a cold , snowy winter!

[GaWx]

Folks,

Prior to 2011-12/2012-13, KATL hadn't had back to back seasons of a trace or less of S/IP since 1973-4/1974-5. Here are all of the back to back trace seasons as well as the subsequent seasons since records started in 1879:

A. 1915-16/1916-17: 1917-18, a neutral negative ENSO winter, had a whopping 8.0" of S/IP, which is the 8th snowiest/sleetiest on record since 1879-80! This included a 4.9" major snow/sleet (much of it sleet) 12/11-13. There also was a major ZR 1/21! This was the 12th coldest DJF on record. This was easily a top 10 winter for Atlanta weenies!

B. 1943-44/1944-45: 1945-46, a weak La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP as well as a major ZR 12/24-25 for Santa! DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

C. 1948-49/1949-50: 1950-51, a weak La Nina, had only a T of S/IP. This was the only instance on record with three seasons in a row with only a T. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

D. The subsequent season, 1951-52, a weak El Nino, had a major S/IP of 3.9" on 2/26. DJF averaged above normal temperaturewise.

E. 1955-56/1956-7: 1957-58, a strong El Nino, had a significant S/IP of 2.7" on 2/15. DJF averaged below normal temperaturewise.

F. 1973-74/1974-75: 1975-76, a strong La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

Summary: For the six KATL following back to back T of S/IP seasons, there were an impressive 4 major winter storms vs. an expected value of about 3 in 6 seasons. Getting 2 major ZR's in 6 seasons beat the average somewhat. Getting an average of 2.6" S/IP for these six seasons beat the longterm average of ~2.0". Winterstormwise, I'd say that 4 of the 6 (2 of 3) would have been considered really good seasons. Meat Loaf surely would have been content. Perhaps this is somewhat encouraging for 2013-14!

Temperaturewise, there were 2 cold, 3 near normal, and one warm.

[mackerel_sky]

FWIW,TWC just showed its outlook for OND by month:

O= torch, lot of SW flow, trough NW, avg precip

N= overall colder, ridge west , trough east, avg precip

D= avg to above temps , precip above

[Avdave]

Lol someone must have told them the mountain snow thread was started!!!

[FallsLake]

FWIW,TWC just showed its outlook for OND by month:

O= torch, lot of SW flow, trough NW, avg precip

N= overall colder, ridge west , trough east, avg precip

D= avg to above temps , precip above

Let's hope this does not occur. We need the exact opposite of the above. From what I've seen over the years the pattern change from November to December can signal the predominate pattern for winter.

[GaStorm]

Folks,

Prior to 2011-12/2012-13, KATL hadn't had back to back seasons of a trace or less of S/IP since 1973-4/1974-5. Here are all of the back to back trace seasons as well as the subsequent seasons since records started in 1879:

A. 1915-16/1916-17: 1917-18, a neutral negative ENSO winter, had a whopping 8.0" of S/IP, which is the 8th snowiest/sleetiest on record since 1879-80! This included a 4.9" major snow/sleet (much of it sleet) 12/11-13. There also was a major ZR 1/21! This was the 12th coldest DJF on record. This was easily a top 10 winter for Atlanta weenies!

B. 1943-44/1944-45: 1945-46, a weak La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP as well as a major ZR 12/24-25 for Santa! DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

C. 1948-49/1949-50: 1950-51, a weak La Nina, had only a T of S/IP. This was the only instance on record with three seasons in a row with only a T. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

D. The subsequent season, 1951-52, a weak El Nino, had a major S/IP of 3.9" on 2/26. DJF averaged above normal temperaturewise.

E. 1955-56/1956-7: 1957-58, a strong El Nino, had a significant S/IP of 2.7" on 2/15. DJF averaged below normal temperaturewise.

F. 1973-74/1974-75: 1975-76, a strong La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

Summary: For the six KATL following back to back T of S/IP seasons, there were an impressive 4 major winter storms vs. an expected value of about 3 in 6 seasons. Getting 2 major ZR's in 6 seasons beat the average somewhat. Getting an average of 2.6" S/IP for these six seasons beat the longterm average of ~2.0". Winterstormwise, I'd say that 4 of the 6 (2 of 3) would have been considered really good seasons. Meat Loaf surely would have been content. Perhaps this is somewhat encouraging for 2013-14!

Temperaturewise, there were 2 cold, 3 near normal, and one warm.

Thanks for the info Larry. Hope we can cash in this winter!

[griteater]

The recent Alaska/Gulf of Alaska mean trough/low has rapidly cooled the north Pacific into a more classic -PDO look.

 

 

 

[Met1985]

The recent Alaska/Gulf of Alaska mean trough/low has rapidly cooled the north Pacific into a more classic -PDO look.

 

 

 

Ya a lot of talk about a low forming in the GOA but some say it is transient and other say it could be really bad for the whole North American pattern similar to what we had two years a ago but hey it is way to early to really say one way or the other. I would rather have this low develop know and move out just in time for winter.

[Brick Tamland]

The only things I'm hanging on to are:

• Cooler than normal summer
• Wetter than normal summer
• Neutral ENSO (so no bad signals, per se)
• Much more ice coverage over the summer than previous years
• Early start to NHem snow cover that requires going back a decade or more to find a similar year
• Warm waters near the Gulf of Alaska, a signal that's been lacking for quite some time
• Continued below normal temperature pattern, with no sign of change

I think all this says is that we won't have a blowtorch winter. Whether that translates to anything more than a few borderline events and only moderate cold at the worst remains to be seen.

 

Unless, of course, all that changes when we get to December, which could very well happen knowing our luck.

[Brick Tamland]

Speaking of big spider webs in my yard....

 

 

[Tyler Penland]

I saw multitudes of squished wooly worms on the roads today.  Anybody wanna analyze that?

 

Depending on which direction they were facing, they were either heading south to avoid freezing to death, north to avoid suddenly bursting into flames, or east/west because they are lost and/or mentally deficient. 

[GaWx]

Folks,

 KATL's highest this summer was only 92 vs. a 1950-2012 avg. of near 97. The 92 was the coolest since the 92 of 2003. Only one has been cooler since 1950: the 90 of 1967. Prior to this year, only eight of the 63 years since 1950 had the hottest being 93 or lower: 1961, 65, 67, 71, 73, 74, 2001, and 03. The eight subsequent winters averaged 2.2" of S/IP vs. the longterm avg. of ~2". Two of the eight winters had a major S/IP and two of the eight had a major ZR (25% for both or near the longterm frequency). One of the eight winters, 1961-2, had BOTH a major S/IP and a major ZR. Four of the eight had 2.5"+ of S/IP...not bad at all if you like S/IP!