Winter '12/'13 Complaint Thread

[Jonger]

If you have any hope of winter weather before December 15th, abandon it now. If not, you're a deluded masochist.

Just gotta drive, unless you want it in your backyard.

Jon

[Powerball]

Sarcasm aside..

The issue many are struggling with isnt the drought conditions or soil moisture. Its the noticeable lack of decent moisture laden systems and the time between them. It has been a trend that wont die.

True.

[michsnowfreak]

Stat padding is pretty much midwest climo. Take the following hypothetical example of a 45" season:

The following dates all get 6":

Nov 21

Dec 7

Dec 22

Jan 8

Jan 26

Feb 13

Mar 8

And 3" on Apr 2 to cap winter.

That would be 45" or a seemingly normal season for many, but would feel like an A plus winter. But obviously that's never going to happen because the midwest averages a ton of light snows. You just have to take climate in stride and enjoy the dozen plus 1" snowfalls all season long.

Yeah historically the nickel and dime snows dominated our climate. The heavy snowstorms of recent years are the more rare birds in terms of frequency. But as last year proved nickel and dime snows can be our saving grace for seeing some snow. Between the great lakes and our location allowing us to get involved in systems from all angles we will never be free of the smaller snows. And in colded winters those snows are huge in aiding snowcover.

The term stat padding came about last winter to reference small snows quickly melting but then what the hell do u call a foot of midatlantic snow that melts in 3 days

[BowMeHunter]

December snows outside of MI style penny and nickles since 1998 have been nothing short of horrific IMO for Milwaukee when you toss out of the freak Decembers of 2000, 2007, 2008 and the early 2006 storm that was followed by no snow the rest of the month. I guess it shouldn't be too surprising there's going to be a lot of not much when you factor in warm lake..climo says we only have around a 50/50 percent chance of a white Christmas..and just bad luck with storm track

[Geos]

December snows outside of MI style penny and nickles since 1998 have been nothing short of horrific IMO for Milwaukee when you toss out of the freak Decembers of 2000, 2007, 2008 and the early 2006 storm that was followed by no snow the rest of the month. I guess it shouldn't be too surprising there's going to be a lot of not much when you factor in warm lake..climo says we only have around a 50/50 percent chance of a white Christmas..and just bad luck with storm track

Looks like between 50-60% chance. Wouldn't worry about the lake too much - once it gets down in the lower 40s we should be safe from mixing issues - given boundary layers aren't borderline with our first system.

[BowMeHunter]

around 50% is what I use.. all kinds of maps out there and it seems every yr the news channels run with one saying 50% one saying 60% one saying we see a white Christmas roughly 2/3rds of the time. yada yada.

[IWXwx]

thanks for getting this thread back on track

[SpartyOn]

I need to move to Calgary or Edmonton or Regina. Can't take it anymore living in this climate

The bruce penninsula is calling your name. Epic Les from what I hear.

[Geos]

around 50% is what I use.. all kinds of maps out there and it seems every yr the news channels run with one saying 50% one saying 60% one saying we see a white Christmas roughly 2/3rds of the time. yada yada.

That map could be the 1981-2010 averaged %.

Yeah Accuweather has its own maps, Skilling probably does too.

[A-L-E-K]

12z euro is weak sauce

[JoMo]

Keep pushing any sort of change back. This is starting to remind me of last year.

So far I've heard... 'pattern change after Thanksgiving'.. 'pattern change around Dec 5th'.... 'pattern change Dec 10th'.... 'pattern change probably more towards the 15th'.

[The_Global_Warmer]

12z euro is weak sauce

The NWS and locals have been pushing next Tues-Wed as a return to highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s here.

I dont see this at all. Maybe Dec 9th or 10th.

Its 60 right now.

I dont think we have embraced the warmth coming unless your local climate can fight it. But areas like st, indy, des moines are ripe for the torch.

We are progged for 68/58/63 vs climo of 48/30/39 only 25f or so above normal.

To even it out directly would take 20/10/15.

Not looking good for Dec here to be average.

We might be 12-14f above by the 10th

[A-L-E-K]

The NWS and locals have been pushing next Tues-Wed as a return to highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s here.

I dont see this at all. Maybe Dec 9th or 10th.

Its 60 right now.

I dont think we have embraced the warmth coming unless your local climate can fight it. But areas like st, indy, des moines are ripe for the torch.

We are progged for 68/58/63 vs climo of 48/30/39 only 25f or so above normal.

To even it out directly would take 20/10/15.

Not looking good for Dec here to be average.

We might be 12-14f above by the 10th

the cool shot early/mid next week will happen but it's going to be brief before mild pac air floods back in

[Trent]

CLE has had 9 occurrences where the first inch of snow was on/after December 5. This year will likely be year 10. The kicker? 6 of those late starts have been 2004 or later. This is the new normal here!

It's going to be a riot when the first thread the needle storm jackpots a narrow area while the rest wait in agony for a few more weeks.

This forum is so geographically huge that it will take at least 4 or 5 systems before everyone gets 2-3" on the board.

[Jonger]

CLE has had 9 occurrences where the first inch of snow was on/after December 5. This year will likely be year 10. The kicker? 6 of those late starts have been 2004 or later. This is the new normal here!

It's going to be a riot when the first thread the needle storm jackpots a narrow area while the rest wait in agony for a few more weeks.

This forum is so geographically huge that it will take at least 4 or 5 systems before everyone gets 2-3" on the board.

The last 10 November's have been above average... Your position in the Midwest is not very favorable for being on the right side of a gulf low. That city probably lives and dies by cold surges before the lake freezes.

Jon

[BowMeHunter]

Hard to believe we're going to start the 1st 3rd of December even worse than last season. At least Canada is not getting torched and the cold will be available to flow down faster than Natty Ice on a college campus.

Anyways... climo isn't fully on our side from MKE south anyways and if all we lose is the first 10 to 15 day of december so be it. Not at all saying it can't snow now but I'd rather it fall starting mid month once our temps are starting to avg closer to 32 degrees.. I love snow just as much as anyone but, I'd rather it start later towards the holidays than now when its doomed to melt anyways 9 times out of ten.

[KokomoWX]

Keep pushing any sort of change back. This is starting to remind me of last year.

So far I've heard... 'pattern change after Thanksgiving'.. 'pattern change around Dec 5th'.... 'pattern change Dec 10th'.... 'pattern change probably more towards the 15th'.

You forgot "This is going to be a back loaded winter."

[SpartyOn]

You forgot "This is going to be a back loaded winter."

If by Jan 15-20th we are staring at endless model runs of a dry and mild long range, then its time to walk away and wish for a early tulip pop.

[OHweather]

The last 10 November's have been above average... Your position in the Midwest is not very favorable for being on the right side of a gulf low. That city probably lives and dies by cold surges before the lake freezes.

Jon

More or less. On the other hand we can do ok if we stay warm even through December and have a wide open lake coming into January...and can make up ground fast. Unfortunetely this year, lake temps have crashed thus far with nothing to show.

[Ajdos]

Keep pushing any sort of change back. This is starting to remind me of last year.

So far I've heard... 'pattern change after Thanksgiving'.. 'pattern change around Dec 5th'.... 'pattern change Dec 10th'.... 'pattern change probably more towards the 15th'.

THAT!

LOL...This is kinda stupid, waiting for pattern changes, and then as you close in they never happen, and then winter is over ;/...

[weathergy]

Can we close this thread after we get a >6"er?

[IWXwx]

Can we close this thread after we get a >6"er?

lol.....How long have you been posting on these boards?

[weathergy]

lol.....How long have you been posting on these boards?

Long enough. I meant that as more of a celebration for getting a storm.

[SpartyOn]

hope

[michsnowfreak]

December snows outside of MI style penny and nickles since 1998 have been nothing short of horrific IMO for Milwaukee when you toss out of the freak Decembers of 2000, 2007, 2008 and the early 2006 storm that was followed by no snow the rest of the month. I guess it shouldn't be too surprising there's going to be a lot of not much when you factor in warm lake..climo says we only have around a 50/50 percent chance of a white Christmas..and just bad luck with storm track

1990s Decembers were better for snowstorms at MKE than 2000s Decembers? WOW. The 1990s had just 3 storms of 4"+ at DTW (and 1 storm of 6"+)...since 2000 there has been 10 storms over 4" (and 7 over 6").

4"+ snowstorms in Dec

1990 - 5.0" (Dec 23)

1994 - 7.6" (Dec 6/7)

1997 - 4.5" (Dec 10)

2000 - 6.1" (Dec 11/12)

2000 - 4.9" (Dec 13/14)

2002 - 5.8" (Dec 2)

2002 - 6.4" (Dec 24/25)

2004 - 8.9" (Dec 22/23)

2005 - 6.2" (Dec 8/9)

2005 - 6.2" (Dec 14/15)

2007 - 9.0" (Dec 15/16)

2008 - 8.2" (Dec 19)

2010 - 6.3" (Dec 12)

[Geos]

Beautiful post SpartyOn.

I'll follow up with...

[IWXwx]

Long enough. I meant that as more of a celebration for getting a storm.

Oh, I know. I was just teasing. If the entire subforum received 5 6"+ snows, the complaint thread would still be alive and well.

[weathergy]

Oh, I know. I was just teasing. If the entire subforum received 5 6"+ snows, the complaint thread would still be alive and well.

That would just be greedy.

[wisconsinwx]

1990s Decembers were better for snowstorms at MKE than 2000s Decembers? WOW. The 1990s had just 3 storms of 4"+ at DTW (and 1 storm of 6"+)...since 2000 there has been 10 storms over 4" (and 7 over 6").

4"+ snowstorms in Dec

1990 - 5.0" (Dec 23)

1994 - 7.6" (Dec 6/7)

1997 - 4.5" (Dec 10)

2000 - 6.1" (Dec 11/12)

2000 - 4.9" (Dec 13/14)

2002 - 5.8" (Dec 2)

2002 - 6.4" (Dec 24/25)

2004 - 8.9" (Dec 22/23)

2005 - 6.2" (Dec 8/9)

2005 - 6.2" (Dec 14/15)

2007 - 9.0" (Dec 15/16)

2008 - 8.2" (Dec 19)

2010 - 6.3" (Dec 12)

Well, I present to you this storm, although it's the only big December storm I can think of:

I was less than one year old at the time, so no personal recollection of it, but it certainly looks more intense than even GHD, perhaps because of bigger flake size, more of a heavy wet snow, whatever it may be.

[A-L-E-K]

I think it's safe to say we have at least another 7 days that are a lock for no snow...the flip to colder/snowier weather never makes it out of fantasy range.