Winter '12/'13 Complaint Thread

[buckeye]

Ditto for me. I know people like michsnowfreak like the snow cover for as long as possible but I'm more of an anticipation and excitement and watching it come down kind of guy. It can stay on the ground for a few days, but eventually it gets kind of old and I'm ready for it to melt off and the next storm to hit.

For me the proof of this comes when a storm finally gets underway after days and days of tracking it. Instead of being out in it, I'll find myself behind the computer in my office, in some cases with the blinds closed tracking the radar, Obs, and data. Then it'll hit me...'wtf am I doing?" Clearly at that point I realize it was never about the snow itself.

In my ideal world, cold and snow would hit with a vengeance about 10 days before xmas....last until Jan 20th, and then bring on late winter of 2012 conditions from that point on.

[michsnowfreak]

You're right to say your optimism is not always unfounded. But it does seem to me that when the ship starts to sink, you're the last one to abandon it. Perhaps my recollections are incorrect, but I've come to this conclusion mostly from last year. The writing was on the wall by January and yet you persisted a bit? Maybe I'm wrong.

And it's not necessarily a bad thing or a good thing or anything anyone else should care about whether you're an optimist or not. It only becomes a little irking when there's a value judgment (ie, if you or anyone else begins to critique someone for being pessimistic) even if the objective signs are pointing in that direction. For instance, someone would be unreasonable to begin to question how good this winter will be based on what the GFS/EURO/ensembles are showing in the medium range right now. Go ahead, blast away at them. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to being questioning how good this December will be. Maybe being declaratory about it (December WILL suck). But not simple musings. Sometimes I feel the optimists don't make that distinction.

But anyway, I was only kidding with my previous post. Feel free to post away in this thread even if it's not complaining. This is all in good fun.

I abandoned ship WAY later than most last year, but by early Feb I was done. I knew my kind of winter (cold, snowcover) wasnt happening. But my "done" is different than others. While others were talking of chasing futility snow records (Detroit was way out of reach anyway) I was just hoping for any snow we would get. I do not need ANY sort of futility record (and alas DTW didnt even make top 20) as a "reward" for suffering through a sh*tty winter. My biggest problem last year...I was so high on our snowy stretch it felt invicible. I KNEW climo would catch up eventually, but I fell for the pre-winter hype and figured, meh, we will worry about that next year. Boy was I wrong.

Also as someone who has studies 130 years of climate data, boring stretches are a given in EVERY winter. Our dream winter (constant storminess/snowiness) will never happen. And if we were snowy now, Id be worried about when that big gaping hole of boringness would come, probably right in the dead of winter when I want it least. Now, how you spend that boring stretch (snowcover/cold or bare/mild) can be a big factor in the winter overall. Hell the midwests most notorious winter, 1977-78, ENDED from an ACTION standpoint after the Jan 26 blizzard...but the region was locked in brutal cold and deep snow through March.

Im off work Dec 14-25, if we have no snow in that stretch, I WILL be posting in this thread and it will NOT be optimistic!

[michsnowfreak]

Why is it such a shock that people on a winter weather board hope for winter-like weather in December, one of only 3 truly wintry months in most of the Midwest/OV?

It looks like Chicago will see temps near 60 during the first week of December...which is bad if you like winter weather. It's not that hard to understand.

I mentioned this analogy last winter...but it's like being a Cubs fan. Every year, you hope for a good season...even if the odds don't necessarily favor it. An average winter in the Chicago metro area is not very wintry (due to being an urban area, frequent thaws, etc.)...so for someone who likes winter, you need to have an above-average snowfall AND below-average temp winter in order to classify the character of the winter as "decent".

We all know our climo, despite claims of many on this board that we don't. Of course we know it...but it doesn't stop me from wishing for a good winter.

The only decent winters in the past 25 years in Chicago were:

1993-94 (cold January, snowy February)

1995-96 (cold spell in early Feb)

1998-99 (large storm and cold period that followed)

2000-01 (snowy December)

2007-08 (snowy)

2008-09 (cold spell in mid-Jan.)

2010-11 (GHD storm)

7 years out of 25 is not good. Above avg. snowfall by itself doesn't automatically mean it was a good winter. It's the whole character of a winter that's important...snow cover, cold temps, few thaws, etc. So, we always hope for more. Why is that so hard for people to grasp?

I do agree it may be a bit early to complain about winter 2012-13...but winter lovers get anxious when pattern changes take awhile to materialize. That's a natural human reaction when you hope for things in life...right?

Its not a shock for winter lovers to want a wintry December. It also wont be a shock if its hit 60...its happened many times before and has no bearing on what the rest of December will bring. What qualifies as "decent" for winter is all personal preference. Some people weigh things soley on snowcover or on snowfall or on a big storm.

Heres some Chicago trivia for you. the snowiest December? 1951 with 33.3". Here is the first week of December:

12/1/51: 55/37

12/2/51: 63/45

12/3/51: 60/49

12/4/51: 52/49

12/5/51: 46/36

12/6/51: 65/43

12/7/51: 55/39

[michsnowfreak]

Well you know what happens though..... As soon as you move and get settled the weather will flip.. The GL and OV region will have a 77-78 style winter and you get nothing but a pacific torch.

Though its no guarentee, usually a good Alaska winter is a bad one here and vice versa. So Im all for the negative snow departures in Alaska this season!

[SpartyOn]

The good thing about weather is. If one season doesnt work out, there is always another the following year.

Moral of the story that we allready know is that weather is beyond our control.

[Geos]

Why is it such a shock that people on a winter weather board hope for winter-like weather in December, one of only 3 truly wintry months in most of the Midwest/OV?

It looks like Chicago will see temps near 60 during the first week of December...which is bad if you like winter weather. It's not that hard to understand.

I mentioned this analogy last winter...but it's like being a Cubs fan. Every year, you hope for a good season...even if the odds don't necessarily favor it. An average winter in the Chicago metro area is not very wintry (due to being an urban area, frequent thaws, etc.)...so for someone who likes winter, you need to have an above-average snowfall AND below-average temp winter in order to classify the character of the winter as "decent".

We all know our climo, despite claims of many on this board that we don't. Of course we know it...but it doesn't stop me from wishing for a good winter.

The only decent winters in the past 25 years in Chicago were:

1993-94 (cold January, snowy February)

1995-96 (cold spell in early Feb)

1998-99 (large storm and cold period that followed)

2000-01 (snowy December)

2007-08 (snowy)

2008-09 (cold spell in mid-Jan.)

2010-11 (GHD storm)

7 years out of 25 is not good. Above avg. snowfall by itself doesn't automatically mean it was a good winter. It's the whole character of a winter that's important...snow cover, cold temps, few thaws, etc. So, we always hope for more. Why is that so hard for people to grasp?

I do agree it may be a bit early to complain about winter 2012-13...but winter lovers get anxious when pattern changes take awhile to materialize. That's a natural human reaction when you hope for things in life...right?

You have to admit that the west, northwest and north suburbs do quite well compared to the inner urban areas and south side. Definitely for the NW and northern suburbs winter of 2009-2010 was good. Carol Stream where you live at least doesn't have to deal with the lake marine air messing up early snowstorm chances! Imagine if records were still kept at Midway - Chicago's annual snowfall would be even lower - likely!

I just don't give the credit to the large storms, but the small clippers also. For me winter is from the first accumulating snowfall to the last one. We've had some March's around here that have acted more like February's.

---

A comment towards moving to a snowier place. I'd be up for that! As long as the snow primarly fell between Halloween and Easter - I'd be fine with what ever amounts fell, whenever they would fall. I'm a fan on prolonged snow cover like Freak. Winter weather doesn't keep me couped up inside like it does most people.

[snowstormcanuck]

I abandoned ship WAY later than most last year, but by early Feb I was done. I knew my kind of winter (cold, snowcover) wasnt happening. But my "done" is different than others. While others were talking of chasing futility snow records (Detroit was way out of reach anyway) I was just hoping for any snow we would get. I do not need ANY sort of futility record (and alas DTW didnt even make top 20) as a "reward" for suffering through a sh*tty winter. My biggest problem last year...I was so high on our snowy stretch it felt invicible. I KNEW climo would catch up eventually, but I fell for the pre-winter hype and figured, meh, we will worry about that next year. Boy was I wrong.

Also as someone who has studies 130 years of climate data, boring stretches are a given in EVERY winter. Our dream winter (constant storminess/snowiness) will never happen. And if we were snowy now, Id be worried about when that big gaping hole of boringness would come, probably right in the dead of winter when I want it least. Now, how you spend that boring stretch (snowcover/cold or bare/mild) can be a big factor in the winter overall. Hell the midwests most notorious winter, 1977-78, ENDED from an ACTION standpoint after the Jan 26 blizzard...but the region was locked in brutal cold and deep snow through March.

Im off work Dec 14-25, if we have no snow in that stretch, I WILL be posting in this thread and it will NOT be optimistic!

I hear you on the futility record stuff. I've had the displeasure of getting to witness that achieved TWICE in three years. No matter how you try and pysch yourself about breaking any kind of record, it rings hollow. You still wish and hope and pray for snow, right until the bitter end.

[michsnowfreak]

You have to admit that the west, northwest and north suburbs do quite well compared to the inner urban areas and south side. Definitely for the NW and northern suburbs winter of 2009-2010 was good. Carol Stream where you live at least doesn't have to deal with the lake marine air messing up early snowstorm chances! Imagine if records were still kept at Midway - Chicago's annual snowfall would be even lower - likely!

I just don't give the credit to the large storms, but the small clippers also. For me winter is from the first accumulating snowfall to the last one. We've had some March's around here that have acted more like February's.

---

A comment towards moving to a snowier place. I'd be up for that! As long as the snow primarly fell between Halloween and Easter - I'd be fine with what ever amounts fell, whenever they would fall. I'm a fan on prolonged snow cover like Freak. Winter weather doesn't keep me couped up inside like it does most people.

My goal would be getting a cabin in the heart of the snowbelt. Often the snowiest places are the most isolated, so while its nice to visit I dont know if I could live there. I really think Detroit/Chicago/etc are excellent places for 4 seasons...we still get more winter than like 80% of the country, its just those insane snowbelts are so close we can taste them. Of course getting a cabin means you are at the mercy of where bands set up lol. Maybe Ill just be a snow chaser like Jonger.

[Stebo]

Lol

[Ajdos]

OFF TOPIC: I'm hosting a trip for around 50-60 ppl to go to a skiing in Michigan around Dec 21st. Does anyone know any good places? Any recommendations? Basically Hotel/Brkfst/Dinner/Ski passes/ Equipment/ ....Anyone with info can Email me at [email protected] THX

[weathergy]

Im getting worried about this drought. Detroits average snowfall the last 5 years is 55.2" (71.7, 65.7, 43.7, 69.1, 26.0). That is only 14-15" above the longterm average. We are becoming a snow desert

Poor attempt at sarcasm.

Droughts can be short term too. Just this year, we were in a drought right after the wettest year on record in Detroit. If I really wanted to be technical about it, we are considered to be abnormally dry on the drought monitor, and have been on the drought monitor at various stages for quite some time this year. Also, the media was using the term snow drought last winter, so since the winter of '10-'11, we have not had a major snow event.

I mean, yeah, it was pretty snowy 2-4 years ago, but that's in the past. If I was totally content with the snowy years we just had, I wouldn't bother posting on this board until we've got something major coming. I mean if you're happy, why bother?

[weathergy]

Ditto for me. I know people like michsnowfreak like the snow cover for as long as possible but I'm more of an anticipation and excitement and watching it come down kind of guy. It can stay on the ground for a few days, but eventually it gets kind of old and I'm ready for it to melt off and the next storm to hit.

This is totally me right here. I like the actual storm more than the snow itself. The inclement conditions is what does it for me. But after the storm passes, meh, gotta go shovel it now.

[Chicago Storm]

My optimism is nowhere NEAR as unfounded as the pessimism of most of the rest of the board. There is no haven for the true winter weather weenie anymore. In real life sure we all know people who share our love for snow, but thats it...nothing meteorology/weather related with those people. You would think this would be the place to be...but all it is anymore is people who are completely unrealistic wrt climo and how weather works over the course of an entire winter season. I saw TONS of complaints during the good years, was called optimist blahblahblah, and then once the region got tons of snow, all was forgotten about my undue optimism (granted youve suffer more than most recently, considering your latitude). But last year, a disaster winter brought about unparallelled complaining that has carried over into this season before it really begins. I often feel that Tim and I are on an island by ourselves. If this winter DOES suck (which of course is possible) it has nothing to do with whats going on right now (the LR gfs or how much this reminds some people of last year).

lo fucking l

[michsnowfreak]

Poor attempt at sarcasm.

Droughts can be short term too. Just this year, we were in a drought right after the wettest year on record in Detroit. If I really wanted to be technical about it, we are considered to be abnormally dry on the drought monitor, and have been on the drought monitor at various stages for quite some time this year. Also, the media was using the term snow drought last winter, so since the winter of '10-'11, we have not had a major snow event.

I mean, yeah, it was pretty snowy 2-4 years ago, but that's in the past. If I was totally content with the snowy years we just had, I wouldn't bother posting on this board until we've got something major coming. I mean if you're happy, why bother?

of course I was being sarcastic. Yes, we are abnormally dry on the drought monitor. Yes, last year was a snow drought (for almost everyone). But just like last winter had nothing to do with the previous snowy winters, this winter will have nothing to do with last years snow drought. It may be snowy, it may be not snowy, it may be average. But dry Falls have absolutely ZERO correlation to the coming winter. I just checked the top 20 driest Autumns for Detroit, and exactly 10 had above normal snowfall and 10 had below normal. This Fall will fall short of the top 20, #20 driest being 5.08" and we are currently at 5.51".

[michsnowfreak]

This is totally me right here. I like the actual storm more than the snow itself. The inclement conditions is what does it for me. But after the storm passes, meh, gotta go shovel it now.

I even like shoveling snow! My back was sick of it by mid-Feb 2011 but I dared not peep a word or id be in hot water with a lot of people who were sick of snow and knew i wasnt...but last year I shoveled every snowfall over a half inch, as crazy as it may look!

[weathergy]

of course I was being sarcastic. Yes, we are abnormally dry on the drought monitor. Yes, last year was a snow drought (for almost everyone). But just like last winter had nothing to do with the previous snowy winters, this winter will have nothing to do with last years snow drought. It may be snowy, it may be not snowy, it may be average. But dry Falls have absolutely ZERO correlation to the coming winter. I just checked the top 20 driest Autumns for Detroit, and exactly 10 had above normal snowfall and 10 had below normal. This Fall will fall short of the top 20, #20 driest being 5.08" and we are currently at 5.51".

It has been a dry year overall. For us to get a decent snowfall would mean to break the dry pattern we've been having all year.

[michsnowfreak]

It has been a dry year overall. For us to get a decent snowfall would mean to break the dry pattern we've been having all year.

If DTW gets 2.01" or less of precip from now through Dec 31st, they will finish in the top 20 driest years list after last year was #1 wettest. So yes it has been a dry year...but that doesnt mean you cant get a decent storm (be it rain or snow). There has still been 24.47" of precip and 20.1" of snow since Jan 1st. All this means is it has precipitated less than normal. Also...winter snowfall can be above normal with below normal precip, or on rarer occasion vice versa. Recent dry conditions do not dictate a winter pattern like they do summer.

[Stebo]

If DTW gets 2.01" or less of precip from now through Dec 31st, they will finish in the top 20 driest years list after last year was #1 wettest. So yes it has been a dry year...but that doesnt mean you cant get a decent storm (be it rain or snow). There has still been 24.47" of precip and 20.1" of snow since Jan 1st. All this means is it has precipitated less than normal. Also...winter snowfall can be above normal with below normal precip, or on rarer occasion vice versa. Recent dry conditions do not dictate a winter pattern like they do summer.

They can, the correlation just is not as much as it would be in the summer time.

[michsnowfreak]

They can, the correlation just is not as much as it would be in the summer time.

you are correct, i typed that quite sloppily

[Chicago Storm]

You have to admit that the west, northwest and north suburbs do quite well compared to the inner urban areas and south side.

That's generally true.

Definitely for the NW and northern suburbs winter of 2009-2010 was good.

Indeed... 58.4" here..

Imagine if records were still kept at Midway - Chicago's annual snowfall would be even lower - likely!

Average seasonal snowfall is actually higher at MDW...

MDW: 37.1"

ORD: 36.7"

Carol Stream where you live at least doesn't have to deal with the lake marine air messing up early snowstorm chances!

That's actually incorrect. Many times there can be issues well into December...Though it obviously depends on several factors.

[on_wx]

It's not even that cold yet, but I still find it absolutely freezing outside. Had to buy a bulky snowboarding jacket to keep warm in this 30F~ weather. Can only imagine what the really cold temps will feel like this winter after such a hot and toasty year.

[TugHillMatt]

If DTW gets 2.01" or less of precip from now through Dec 31st, they will finish in the top 20 driest years list after last year was #1 wettest. So yes it has been a dry year...but that doesnt mean you cant get a decent storm (be it rain or snow). There has still been 24.47" of precip and 20.1" of snow since Jan 1st. All this means is it has precipitated less than normal. Also...winter snowfall can be above normal with below normal precip, or on rarer occasion vice versa. Recent dry conditions do not dictate a winter pattern like they do summer.

Lol, Josh. You are like my friend who every time I excitedly say "snow is coming", says "it's not gonna snow" with his skeptical tone and face...except...you are on the other end. I might say "Blah, 50s for several days soon!" and you would say "it can still snow..................."

I enjoy your posts, but you don't need to drive the "this is normal and reality" agenda. Yes, we get extremes, and in reality, this winter could be another craptastic winter. As of now, we don't have too many encouraging signs for a great winter. Eric Fisher from the Weather Channel actually announced on his FB page that "winter is officially over starting in December..." lol...I called him out on it, and said it is not very professional to make such a ridiculously blatant statement like that. But the point is, not many of us see great signs for a great winter. The bloody Pacific Jet has controlled much of our winter weather during this century.

[buckeye]

not to throw cold water on such a fantastic thread, but...

the 240 hour 00z euro didn't look too, extremely...horrible.

[michsnowfreak]

Lol, Josh. You are like my friend who every time I excitedly say "snow is coming", says "it's not gonna snow" with his skeptical tone and face...except...you are on the other end. I might say "Blah, 50s for several days soon!" and you would say "it can still snow..................."

I enjoy your posts, but you don't need to drive the "this is normal and reality" agenda. Yes, we get extremes, and in reality, this winter could be another craptastic winter. As of now, we don't have too many encouraging signs for a great winter. Eric Fisher from the Weather Channel actually announced on his FB page that "winter is officially over starting in December..." lol...I called him out on it, and said it is not very professional to make such a ridiculously blatant statement like that. But the point is, not many of us see great signs for a great winter. The bloody Pacific Jet has controlled much of our winter weather during this century.

But as a climatology person I cannot help but correct posts that are blatantly wrong. The post you quoted was my response to a comment that to get a big storm we would have to break a dry pattern weve been in all year, and that is completely untrue. Just because precip has been below normal does not mean you cant get a big storm. As for "not too many encouraging signs for winter"...the simplest of signs...above normal north american snowcover and extensive cold in canada....historicaly point to a good winter in these parts. Or at the very least cold and clippery winter. And you are right of course we could have another craptastic winter...but those are usually good signs. Now....how the goa pdo nao ao mjo etc behave is totally beyond my area....I know nothing about lr forecasting...I just know about past winters and what usually is good and not good. If I had stopped listening to the hype last fall and looked at the na snowcover I may not have been so gungho on winter.

[A-L-E-K]

you see amounts close to this in WAshington but these are the heaviest point totals i've seen this far south.

• Snow. Low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 33 to 43 mph increasing to 50 to 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
  

• Thursday

  Snow. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 75 to 85 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
  

• Thursday Night

  Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 90 to 95 mph increasing to 100 to 105 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
  

• Friday

  Snow. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 85 to 95 mph decreasing to 75 to 85 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.
  

• Friday Night

  Snow. Low around 14. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
  

• Saturday

  Snow. High near 19. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
  

• Saturday Night

  Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible.
  

[Geos]

That looks like a Mt. Rainier forecast. Am I right Alek?

I got to see the snow pack at 5400' feet in March of 2011. It's crazy to witness in person! Snow depth was over 200".

[A-L-E-K]

That looks like a Mt. Rainier forecast. Am I right Alek?

I got to see the snow pack at 5400' feet in March of 2011. It's crazy to witness in person! Snow depth was over 200".

no, it's Shasta...that's why i posted it. I'm used to seeing that in Washington, not so much Cali

[hm8]

chirst. That's just about as extreme as weather gets right there.

[michsnowfreak]

That looks like a Mt. Rainier forecast. Am I right Alek?

I got to see the snow pack at 5400' feet in March of 2011. It's crazy to witness in person! Snow depth was over 200".

Wow I would KILL to see that! Any pics?

[wisconsinwx]

Ok, at this point I am capitulating to this winter. The reason I feel it will suck is because even this fall, with the exception of one or two storms, we really haven't seen strong lows spin up in the Midwest. Now, every fantasy storm that spins up becomes weaker with time and more like a typical frontal passage as we get closer. I have a sad feeling that will be a theme this winter. We will see a dry yo-yo pattern. That is to say, alternating cool and warm periods, but with overall boring weather. I really hope I'm wrong but I don't see it. Early next week a cold front will come through with some light rain for most ahead of it. Then a ridge looks to come through a few days later. A few days later, another relatively dry cold front probably, rinse, wash, repeat.