Winter '12/'13 Complaint Thread

[Central Illinois]

Yep, quite generous. NE Illinois down into central lllinois is the screw zone of all screw zones.

lol no kidding STL to Chicago is the no snow zone compared to other areas... Anything over 3" and it's forget about it here not happening

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[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's looking like the Euro weeklies are going to beat out the GFS. It could be a bad year for ice fishers and pond skaters in southern Ontario.

[roardog]

It's looking like the Euro weeklies are going to beat out the GFS. It could be a bad year for ice fishers and pond skaters in southern Ontario.

 

I love how model victories are always declared before the time period in question even arrives. Is this what they call a meltdown?lol

[TugHillMatt]

I am going to vent again. We are now 30 some inches behind, and while most of Michigan is getting snow, we are getting RAIN ONLY in the Muskegon area. So ticked.

[Chicago WX]

I am going to vent again. We are now 30 some inches behind, and while most of Michigan is getting snow, we are getting RAIN ONLY in the Muskegon area. So ticked.

 

You've earned the right to vent. Let it all out.

[TugHillMatt]

The lake has been more of an enemy than a friend since I moved here! Urgh. SO bummed I moved here during utterly CRAP writers.

[Harry]

I am going to vent again. We are now 30 some inches behind, and while most of Michigan is getting snow, we are getting RAIN ONLY in the Muskegon area. So ticked.

 

Ouch.. Sorry to hear. That REALLY sucks.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I love how model victories are always declared before the time period in question even arrives. Is this what they call a meltdown?lol

 

If recent model trends are correct, there really will be a meltdown in southern Ontario.

[A-L-E-K]

february here we come

[Chicago WX]

february here we come

 

Punting January?

[IWXwx]

January is going to be just like December, first part, sssuuuuuuucccccckkk. Last part will rock

[A-L-E-K]

Punting January?

 

yessir

[SpartyOn]

Awful developments for Jan. What a complete mess of 2/3s of this winter.

[Chicago WX]

yessir

 

Bad call IMO.

 

Pattern looks fairly sexy mid month onward.

[snowstormcanuck]

January is going to be just like December, first part, sssuuuuuuucccccckkk. Last part adequate.

 

fyp

[IWXwx]

fyp

 

Well, the last part will rock in comparison to the first part, not necessarily in comparison to previous winters. I guess it's a matter of perspective. lol

[A-L-E-K]

Bad call IMO.

 

Pattern looks fairly sexy mid month onward.

 

a couple of rain storms and then ice box suppression.  Lock it in.

[Chicago WX]

a couple of rain storms and then ice box suppression.  Lock it in.

 

lol, deflated weenie.

 

But I understand the sentiment. I would say the same thing if I was in Chicago this winter. I think you'll be quite pleased though, by the end of this month through early February. High hopes...

[Jonger]

a couple of rain storms and then ice box suppression.  Lock it in.

 

Sunny skies for Chicago, raging LES 50 miles away.

 

I think the location of Chicago was chosen to piss off weather weenies like yourself 200+ years into the future.

[A-L-E-K]

Sunny skies for Chicago, raging LES 50 miles away.

 

I think the location of Chicago was chosen to piss off weather weenies like yourself 200+ years into the future.

 

we'll both be growing palms in 200 years...it will be great

[Thundersnow12]

Bad call IMO.

 

Pattern looks fairly sexy mid month onward.

 

thank you, atleast a few are optimistic. It's getting damn annoying if you ask me. 

 

If you're going to root against snow then move to FL. 

[A-L-E-K]

thank you, atleast a few are optimistic. It's getting damn annoying if you ask me. 

 

If you're going to root against snow then move to FL. 

 

complaint thread dude.

 

I'll be as excited as any when a real storm threat materializes (i've bit a couple times this year) but I don't see anything on the horizon outside a couple rain storms and suppression.

[dmc76]

Just got into Traverse City. Right in the City of TC you can see grass in some areas. Outskirts has about 5-7" OTG. Pathetic for this area.

[TugHillMatt]

a couple of rain storms and then ice box suppression. Lock it in.

This is exactly what I am thinking. Add northerly winds in there that send ALL of the Lake effect snow to northern Indiana (if there is enough moisture). It is the pattern that never wants to end. When the Pacific Jet stops raging, somebody let me know...

[Jonger]

This is exactly what I am thinking. Add northerly winds in there that send ALL of the Lake effect snow to northern Indiana (if there is enough moisture). It is the pattern that never wants to end. When the Pacific Jet stops raging, somebody let me know...

 

I totally understand all the complaining, but trying to determine LES wind directions 180 hours out is a tad much.

[TugHillMatt]

I totally understand all the complaining, but trying to determine LES wind directions 180 hours out is a tad omuch.

Oh, I know. the pattern for the past four winters has been northerly winds though when cold comes. Western Michigan hasn't really seen any good west wind events for years. It has been the pattern...

[SpartyOn]

Always next year guys.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Hopefully the cold coming after the next Blow Torch will actually be cold.  I see so many posts about Warmies, Warministas and whatever about how bias "we" are towards warmth.  We get lied to about posting stuff like I am posting below in these forums like moderators actually PM people and tell them not to post these types of graphs and talk about climo of temp and I guess snowfall since they are the same sort of stats. 

 

But when it comes down to it.  I think many of us are complaining very legitimately, especially about the cold, and others more or less about the SNOW.  My local peoples in many local's have only had a heavy dusting to 1" or less.  I have been lucky enough to have three events of light to moderate snow, two of them laying down 3" and 1-1.5".  And until yesterday a week of snow cover.

 

But once again, like most years, and it's seems like it's getting worse the cold outbreak is far weaker than the warm intrusions or really the baseline.  To start with my own back yard.

 

December finished 7.0F above normal.  Obviously the first week was a hammer of near epic sorts.  The exact average is 41.7F.  Doing the quick math when you add January's average 31.8F and February's 36.3F together with December's Torch we end up with the 23rd Warmest Winter on record here. 

 

Maybe we will get some UBER SUPER DUPER COLD.  To come and average this out.  But just because we get 10-14 days of below average cold it doesn't make up for larger chunks of winter being torched or base-lined well above normal.  For starters this is January so far in my back yard: 

 

The busted stuff is not a shot at anyone, just guidance being to cold in the short range like 3-4 days out.  So we were sold at the end of December that January would start pretty cold. I recall adding up the forecasted departures and they being between -30 and -40 for the 1st week. 

 

Jan 1: -8(tied coldest day of winter so far)

Jan 2: -8(tied coldest day of winter so far)

Jan 3: -1(huge forecast bust)

Jan 4: +1(huge forecast bust)

Jan 5: +6(another forecast bust)

Jan 6: +4(unfortunate frontal timing)

Jan 7: +2(might be higher, WAA is gonna stop the previously forecated 21F low from coming anywhere near reality)

Total:  -4F for the first 7 days of departures. 

 

Up coming from the 8th-14th is likely just throwing out some random numbers: 7, 10, 10, 12, 18, 20, 25 for a total around 90-100.  So by January 14th we will be sitting 6-7F above normal for the month.  Of course cold will come, but how cold will that be to wipe that out?  If you do not know our average temperature is 40/23/32 for the middle of January.  So days of 34/22/28 which folks around here think is really cold now is only -4F.  If Jan 15th-Jan 31st was -4F we would still be above normal for the month. 

 

 

It could go either way but I am complaining because in 09-11 saw the 30th and 36th coldest winters on record.  Now we are looking at a top 20 or top 25 warmest winter on record but I keep being told it's not that bad. 

 

Why do I get the feeling many cities around the region are not better off in the temp department.

 

 

[Jonger]

Hopefully the cold coming after the next Blow Torch will actually be cold.  I see so many posts about Warmies, Warministas and whatever about how bias "we" are towards warmth.  We get lied to about posting stuff like I am posting below in these forums like moderators actually PM people and tell them not to post these types of graphs and talk about climo of temp and I guess snowfall since they are the same sort of stats. 

 

But when it comes down to it.  I think many of us are complaining very legitimately, especially about the cold, and others more or less about the SNOW.  My local peoples in many local's have only had a heavy dusting to 1" or less.  I have been lucky enough to have three events of light to moderate snow, two of them laying down 3" and 1-1.5".  And until yesterday a week of snow cover.

 

But once again, like most years, and it's seems like it's getting worse the cold outbreak is far weaker than the warm intrusions or really the baseline.  To start with my own back yard.

 

December finished 7.0F above normal.  Obviously the first week was a hammer of near epic sorts.  The exact average is 41.7F.  Doing the quick math when you add January's average 31.8F and February's 36.3F together with December's Torch we end up with the 23rd Warmest Winter on record here. 

 

Maybe we will get some UBER SUPER DUPER COLD.  To come and average this out.  But just because we get 10-14 days of below average cold it doesn't make up for larger chunks of winter being torched or base-lined well above normal.  For starters this is January so far in my back yard: 

 

The busted stuff is not a shot at anyone, just guidance being to cold in the short range like 3-4 days out.  So we were sold at the end of December that January would start pretty cold. I recall adding up the forecasted departures and they being between -30 and -40 for the 1st week. 

 

Jan 1: -8(tied coldest day of winter so far)

Jan 2: -8(tied coldest day of winter so far)

Jan 3: -1(huge forecast bust)

Jan 4: +1(huge forecast bust)

Jan 5: +6(another forecast bust)

Jan 6: +4(unfortunate frontal timing)

Jan 7: +2(might be higher, WAA is gonna stop the previously forecated 21F low from coming anywhere near reality)

Total:  -4F for the first 7 days of departures. 

 

Up coming from the 8th-14th is likely just throwing out some random numbers: 7, 10, 10, 12, 18, 20, 25 for a total around 90-100.  So by January 14th we will be sitting 6-7F above normal for the month.  Of course cold will come, but how cold will that be to wipe that out?  If you do not know our average temperature is 40/23/32 for the middle of January.  So days of 34/22/28 which folks around here think is really cold now is only -4F.  If Jan 15th-Jan 31st was -4F we would still be above normal for the month. 

 

 

It could go either way but I am complaining because in 09-11 saw the 30th and 36th coldest winters on record.  Now we are looking at a top 20 or top 25 warmest winter on record but I keep being told it's not that bad. 

 

Why do I get the feeling many cities around the region are not better off in the temp department.

 

 

 

Look, its not the 1970's anymore... We aren't going to beat many of those records in a warm period (AGW, Cycle, Whatever). I'm just surprised how you are letting the last 2 years of OBVIOUS pacific influence, make you so short sighted. The last decade, STL has averaged exactly AVERAGE over the Dec-Jan-Feb time period. Yes, the world is 0.8C warmer, but STL hasn't seen much of a change in regard to the 100 year period.

 

100 years:

 

And YOUR lifetime

 

[Powerball]

Are we going to create a Part 2 complaint thread?

 

I imagine this one is going to get quite a workout this upcoming week.