Winter '12/'13 Complaint Thread

[snowstormcanuck]

Anybody else find it funny that Josh has the most posts in a "winter complaint thread"?

My god man! Let us have one place where we can escape your eternal, and yes, sometimes unfounded, optimism.

[Chicago WX]

Id love to see a storm-track map of 1920-22. Chicago got something like 9" and 11"? Detroit got 36.1" (1920-21) and 42.7" (1921-22). Both seasons had below-avg snowcover though, 1920-21 WAY below, 1921-22 just barely below.

Here's the season totals for 1920-21, that were the worst relative to what we expect now.

St. Louis: 5.6"

Peoria: 8.6"

Chicago: 9.8"

Moline: 14.0"

Columbus: 17.3"

Indy: 17.3"

Fort Wayne: 19.2"

Minneapolis: 20.6"

South Bend: 20.9"

Flint: 24.0"

Cleveland: 26.1"

Madison 27.6"

Green Bay: 29.3"

Milwaukee: 29.6"

Muskegon: 29.6"

Grand Rapids: 32.5"

Sault Ste Marie: 72.4"

Marquette: 88.5"

And I'd put these five as sort of salvaging a awful season compared to others in 1920-21. Well, in the case of LEX and SDF, it was a good season numerically.

Louisville: 17.4"

Lexington: 26.3"

Toledo: 31.2"

Detroit: 36.1"

Toronto: 42.9"

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's the season totals for 1920-21, that were the worst relative to what we expect now.

St. Louis: 5.6"

Peoria: 8.6"

Chicago: 9.8"

Moline: 14.0"

Columbus: 17.3"

Indy: 17.3"

Fort Wayne: 19.2"

Minneapolis: 20.6"

South Bend: 20.9"

Flint: 24.0"

Cleveland: 26.1"

Madison 27.6"

Green Bay: 29.3"

Milwaukee: 29.6"

Muskegon: 29.6"

Grand Rapids: 32.5"

Sault Ste Marie: 72.4"

Marquette: 88.5"

And I'd put these five as sort of salvaging a awful season compared to others in 1920-21.

Louisville: 17.4"

Lexington: 26.3"

Toledo: 31.2"

Detroit: 36.1"

Toronto: 42.9"

Ah Marquette. What a magical place. Where 88.5" in a winter is considered an abject failure.

[michsnowfreak]

I love how I keep seeing, "It's not the same pattern as last winter." Here is my response, "I DON'T CARE. IT STILL SUCKS FOR NOW!"

Now, I also know it is way early to panic, but come January if we are still hearing, "Its is coming in 10 days......"

The reason you are seeing it is in response to the people keep saying this REMINDS them of last year. This is actually about as far from last November as you can get. But yes, it sucks for now.

[Chicago WX]

Ah Marquette. What a magical place. Where 88.5" in a winter is considered an abject failure.

Absolute and total. But I'd caution that the observing site was in a different location that it is now...which does make a difference up there. 53.4" in 1940-41 is their low water mark, but again...different site location. If that number were repeated at the current site...oh my.

[michsnowfreak]

Anybody else find it funny that Josh has the most posts in a "winter complaint thread"?

My god man! Let us have one place where we can escape your eternal, and yes, sometimes unfounded, optimism.

As soon as the complaining leaves other threads, I will be no more in this thread. My optimism is nowhere NEAR as unfounded as the pessimism of most of the rest of the board. There is no haven for the true winter weather weenie anymore. In real life sure we all know people who share our love for snow, but thats it...nothing meteorology/weather related with those people. You would think this would be the place to be...but all it is anymore is people who are completely unrealistic wrt climo and how weather works over the course of an entire winter season. I saw TONS of complaints during the good years, was called optimist blahblahblah, and then once the region got tons of snow, all was forgotten about my undue optimism (granted youve suffer more than most recently, considering your latitude). But last year, a disaster winter brought about unparallelled complaining that has carried over into this season before it really begins. I often feel that Tim and I are on an island by ourselves. If this winter DOES suck (which of course is possible) it has nothing to do with whats going on right now (the LR gfs or how much this reminds some people of last year).

[michsnowfreak]

Absolute and total. But I'd caution that the observing site was in a different location that it is now...which does make a difference up there. 53.4" in 1940-41 is their low water mark, but again...different site location. If that number were repeated at the current site...oh my.

True. They used to measure in Marquette proper now its in the snowmagnet of Negaunee. If you check the rtp reports, the official site for Marquette almost ALWAYS has the most snow AND depth in the area (sort of the opposite of most areas rtps). It would be like using White Lake as the official Detroit station only 10 times more extreme.

[Trent]

In my opinion there's no difference between a cold, dry, snowless November and a warm, wet, snowless November. They both suck and in the age of rare negative consecutive temp anomalies, it sucks to have wasted a cold November with nothing to show for it.

[buckeye]

Actually, we ARE in a trough with below normal temps though, and pretty much our entire region will be finishing November colder than normal. Its just no one got much snow (which is NEVER predictable in the longterm). CMH is at -2.3F on the month and their snowfall is just 0.1" below normal. We will be seeing mild air to start December, the question is how long will it last and will it be torch or just muted mild air? Right now a lot of mets are saying that the pattern (both cold and stormy) looks more favorable centered around Dec 10th (some say as late as early as Dec 5th, others as late as Dec 15th or later though).

But I actually like this quoting posts bit. I may have to do some of that when the other shoe drops

the premise of those quotes was that the beginning of the cold and winter pattern was expected to start 2 weeks from the time they were made. Reality is that we are now at the end of a seasonably cold period that is getting ready to torch.

Hmmm, but I like the idea...a crow-eating thread. Hell, if true winter conditions set in, I'll be the first to quote myself about how last winter was not an anomaly. Crow never tastes like crap when it's being eaten in a blinding snowstorm

[buckeye]

I will say if anything does make me feel a little better, it's that Don S. is pretty bullish on this winter. Last winter he rode the warm train non-stop all the way to credibilityville. If he's on the cold/snow train this winter, it's definitely worth a mention.

[snowstormcanuck]

As soon as the complaining leaves other threads, I will be no more in this thread. My optimism is nowhere NEAR as unfounded as the pessimism of most of the rest of the board. There is no haven for the true winter weather weenie anymore. In real life sure we all know people who share our love for snow, but thats it...nothing meteorology/weather related with those people. You would think this would be the place to be...but all it is anymore is people who are completely unrealistic wrt climo and how weather works over the course of an entire winter season. I saw TONS of complaints during the good years, was called optimist blahblahblah, and then once the region got tons of snow, all was forgotten about my undue optimism (granted youve suffer more than most recently, considering your latitude). But last year, a disaster winter brought about unparallelled complaining that has carried over into this season before it really begins. I often feel that Tim and I are on an island by ourselves. If this winter DOES suck (which of course is possible) it has nothing to do with whats going on right now (the LR gfs or how much this reminds some people of last year).

You're right to say your optimism is not always unfounded. But it does seem to me that when the ship starts to sink, you're the last one to abandon it. Perhaps my recollections are incorrect, but I've come to this conclusion mostly from last year. The writing was on the wall by January and yet you persisted a bit? Maybe I'm wrong.

And it's not necessarily a bad thing or a good thing or anything anyone else should care about whether you're an optimist or not. It only becomes a little irking when there's a value judgment (ie, if you or anyone else begins to critique someone for being pessimistic) even if the objective signs are pointing in that direction. For instance, someone would be unreasonable to begin to question how good this winter will be based on what the GFS/EURO/ensembles are showing in the medium range right now. Go ahead, blast away at them. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to being questioning how good this December will be. Maybe being declaratory about it (December WILL suck). But not simple musings. Sometimes I feel the optimists don't make that distinction.

But anyway, I was only kidding with my previous post. Feel free to post away in this thread even if it's not complaining. This is all in good fun.

[Geos]

Absolute and total. But I'd caution that the observing site was in a different location that it is now...which does make a difference up there. 53.4" in 1940-41 is their low water mark, but again...different site location. If that number were repeated at the current site...oh my.

Yeah that new site at the airport experience orographic lift and the snow wrings out of the clouds better there then downtown Marquette. I have relatives in the area and they have mentioned the Negaunee area always getting more snow then down by the lake!

[Chicago WX]

The people who are canceling winter...or even questioning the quality of this upcoming entire winter, on November 27...and mostly based off a potentially poor first half of December or a day 10 Euro prog, are total loony tunes. I mean seriously crazy pessimistic. Every winter can't be 1977-78.

[beavis1729]

Not this again, it isn't even December yet... Complain about winter when it is half over ok?

Why is it such a shock that people on a winter weather board hope for winter-like weather in December, one of only 3 truly wintry months in most of the Midwest/OV?

It looks like Chicago will see temps near 60 during the first week of December...which is bad if you like winter weather. It's not that hard to understand.

I mentioned this analogy last winter...but it's like being a Cubs fan. Every year, you hope for a good season...even if the odds don't necessarily favor it. An average winter in the Chicago metro area is not very wintry (due to being an urban area, frequent thaws, etc.)...so for someone who likes winter, you need to have an above-average snowfall AND below-average temp winter in order to classify the character of the winter as "decent".

We all know our climo, despite claims of many on this board that we don't. Of course we know it...but it doesn't stop me from wishing for a good winter.

The only decent winters in the past 25 years in Chicago were:

1993-94 (cold January, snowy February)

1995-96 (cold spell in early Feb)

1998-99 (large storm and cold period that followed)

2000-01 (snowy December)

2007-08 (snowy)

2008-09 (cold spell in mid-Jan.)

2010-11 (GHD storm)

7 years out of 25 is not good. Above avg. snowfall by itself doesn't automatically mean it was a good winter. It's the whole character of a winter that's important...snow cover, cold temps, few thaws, etc. So, we always hope for more. Why is that so hard for people to grasp?

I do agree it may be a bit early to complain about winter 2012-13...but winter lovers get anxious when pattern changes take awhile to materialize. That's a natural human reaction when you hope for things in life...right?

[buckeye]

The people who are canceling winter...or even questioning the quality of this upcoming entire winter, on November 27...and mostly based off a potentially poor first half of December or a day 10 Euro prog, are total loony tunes. I mean seriously crazy pessimistic. Every winter can't be 1977-78.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not cancelling anything. I just believe that this winter will turn out to be yet another boring winter...not necessarily the disaster of last, but definitely forgettable. I base this on mostly anecdotal, weenie, hobbiest, evidence. That might make me a , but it doesn't make me a .

I agree with you on this though, whoever it is that considers any winter that doesn't match 1977-78 a loser, IS a loony.

[beavis1729]

The people who are canceling winter...or even questioning the quality of this upcoming entire winter, on November 27...and mostly based off a potentially poor first half of December or a day 10 Euro prog, are total loony tunes. I mean seriously crazy pessimistic. Every winter can't be 1977-78.

The bold is the key distinction. I'm not questioning the quality of the entire winter now...but I am frustrated because the first week of Decmber may have temps in the 55-60 range in MBY. That is not how the first week of December should be. There's nothing more to it than that. I hope for something and it doesn't materialize, so it's a bit annoying.

It also gets frustrating because you see places that aren't very far away as the crow flies in the grand scheme of things (i.e., northern WI, central MN) seeing sub-zero temps already in November...which Chicago sometimes doesn't see in an entire winter. Real winter-like weather is always so tantalizingly close by...and that adds to the frustration.

Later on in life, I'll move to a more wintry place (and I'm sure many other of us weenies will too )...but for now, job and family doesn't make it possible...which is certainly fine, as it has even more importance to me than winter (believe it or not!). So, until then, I hope.

[Chicago WX]

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not cancelling anything. I just believe that this winter will turn out to be yet another boring winter...not necessarily the disaster of last, but definitely forgettable. I base this on mostly anecdotal, weenie, hobbiest, evidence. That might make me a , but it doesn't make me a .

I agree with you on this though, whoever it is that considers any winter that doesn't match 1977-78 a loser, IS a loony.

We've been on the boards together for what, like 10 years? You have to admit that you are generally in the pessimistic group early. Which is fine I guess, but there are some on here who are throwing the entire thing down the drain already. That's nuts. I mean people who love winter should probably hope for the best every year, but there's also a point where reality should take over. And that's just the bulk of winters for the majority of us are "average"...with the truly great ones being far and few between. Maybe I should sit this one out though, because everyone has the right to their expectations/wants every single winter...even if I disagree with it.

[Chicago WX]

The bold is the key distinction. I'm not questioning the quality of the entire winter now...but I am frustrated because the first week of Decmber may have temps in the 55-60 range in MBY. That is not how the first week of December should be. There's nothing more to it than that. I hope for something and it doesn't materialize, so it's a bit annoying.

It also gets frustrating because you see places that aren't very far away as the crow flies in the grand scheme of things (i.e., northern WI, central MN) seeing sub-zero temps already in November...which Chicago sometimes doesn't see in an entire winter. Real winter-like weather is always so tantalizingly close by...and that adds to the frustration.

Later on in life, I'll move to a more wintry place (and I'm sure many other of us weenies will too )...but for now, job and family doesn't make it possible...which is certainly fine, as it has even more importance to me than winter (believe it or not!). So, until then, I hope.

Two of your examples of good winters in Chicago were 1993-94 and 1998-99. Both were awful Decembers. Thus my point. It's just too early to freak about the entire season...not saying you are saying that either. I'm just speaking to the generality. But like I tried to say in my last post, maybe I need to move on from this discussion on what constitutes a good winter. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

And yeah, I'm moving to the U.P. ,or somewhere that sees boatloads of snow, later in life. Or at the very least, have a winter home to escape to.

[A-L-E-K]

if you're going to move for snow...why on earth choose the UP, just go all out and move to the west coast where they see the UP's season total in a single storm.

[Geos]

if you're going to move for snow...why on earth choose the UP, just go all out and move to the west coast where they see the UP's season total in a single storm.

There ya go Chicago WX - Cascades above 2500' or so would be prime locations!

[A-L-E-K]

shasta point is nuts right now

[Chicago WX]

if you're going to move for snow...why on earth choose the UP, just go all out and move to the west coast where they see the UP's season total in a single storm.

Fair enough, though I did say somewhere that sees a ton of snow. But I'm probably looking for a more "manageable" seasonal amount. Oh well, it's just for fun.

[LakeEffectOH]

_{...May as well move to Alaska. Seems like it is the only place on the planet that gets any below normal temperatures anymore.}

[wisconsinwx]

The people who are canceling winter...or even questioning the quality of this upcoming entire winter, on November 27...and mostly based off a potentially poor first half of December or a day 10 Euro prog, are total loony tunes. I mean seriously crazy pessimistic. Every winter can't be 1977-78.

I don't think anyone is canceling winter (besides Tropical) but I think many are canceling a decent winter, which is still crazy, but understandable to a point. Backloaded winters are fine, but I'm almost frothing at the mouth for a legit winter storm to track in the region. Besides the Northern Plains, the region has had literally no decent storm to track unless you live in lake effect zones (if those could even be considered "storms").

[Chicago WX]

Speaking of, Valdez AK running behind last year at this point...20.5" this year versus 48.6" last year at this time. Snow depth pretty close, 7" versus 11". December 2011 was pretty dreamy though, 152.2" of snow with a peak snow depth of 58".

[buckeye]

The whole concept of moving somewhere in which massive snow is the norm is about as unattractive to me as moving to Arkansas for winter wx. The best part of winterstorms is the excitement, the disruption, and having a winter wonderland of snow cover in places like here in columbus where it's at best only a couple of weeks a year. Being in a cabin in the Sierra Nevadas and watching 4 feet of snow fall would eventually become about as exciting as watching 2" of rain fall here.

Not to mention, as others here have stated, I love tracking a storm once it gets sniffed out a week or so in advance.

[JoMo]

The whole concept of moving somewhere in which massive snow is the norm is about as unattractive to me as moving to Arkansas for winter wx. The best part of winterstorms is the excitement, the disruption, and having a winter wonderland of snow cover in places like here in columbus where it's at best only a couple of weeks a year. Being in a cabin in the Sierra Nevadas and watching 4 feet of snow fall would eventually become about as exciting as watching 2" of rain fall here.

Not to mention, as others here have stated, I love tracking a storm once it gets sniffed out a week or so in advance.

Ditto for me. I know people like michsnowfreak like the snow cover for as long as possible but I'm more of an anticipation and excitement and watching it come down kind of guy. It can stay on the ground for a few days, but eventually it gets kind of old and I'm ready for it to melt off and the next storm to hit.

[Jonger]

I would rather stay in the Midwest, I really don't want to visit family by plane... Houghton has a nice downtown.... I would pick the UP.

Jon

[SpartyOn]

_{...May as well move to Alaska. Seems like it is the only place on the planet that gets any below normal temperatures anymore.}

Well you know what happens though..... As soon as you move and get settled the weather will flip.. The GL and OV region will have a 77-78 style winter and you get nothing but a pacific torch.

[SpartyOn]

BTW..

I would like to extend a warm welcome for the western PA crews.