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Winter '12/'13 Complaint Thread


dmc76

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I just worked another 12 hour day and my whole body is sore. That's my complaint for the day. I've been working a lot of hours lately and it looks to continue for a few more days, but there appears to be a pattern change about 10-12 days away.

Have we gotten a single pattern change to survive the 180hr mark yet?

Jon

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It's been close to two years since I last left a post, but what others have noted here is correct. If you want to find winter, head to Europe. I spent the last week in Munich and the surrounding areas. It was very cold and snowy and the forecast was for even colder weather. This will be their fourth cold winter in a row. They did see quite a flip though. The week before I arrived had been in the 60's in Munich, but no more.

I don't have the knowledge some around here claim to have, but I do have a basic idea of what's happening. I had been optimistic for the winter since October saw sustained negative phases of the AO and NAO and snow cover was very high in Eurasia. That's usually been a good sign of cold to come. I'm not ready to go with "winter cancel", but the fact the cold is always in the distant future but never arrives isn't reassuring.

I live in Kentucky so winter is always a hit and miss proposition. But if you're 35, like me, or younger, it's hard to remember a truely cold winter. The mythic winters of 1977 and 1978 occured before we knew what was happening or before we were born. I can remember the arctic outbreaks of December 1989 and January 1994. I can also remember the short arctic outbreak in February 1996, but that's about it. Sure the winters of 2003, 2010, and 2011 were cold, but they were hardly historic in my area. Essentially though, that's about it as far as winters go in my area if you're 35 or younger.

Over the last few years, I've reassessed what I can hope for in winter. It seems far too many things must go right to get sustained cold and an arctic shot. This year, the PNA just doesn't seem to be agreeable.

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It'd be one thing if we were receiving a measurable rain that helped erase a deficit here in SE Wisconsin. We are not.

It'd be one thing if we were sitting in a pool of cold air that made going outside unbearable. We are not.

Looking at forecast predictions 8-14 days out are showing more warmth, more above average temps.

What is happening here in SE Wisconsin is not something we alone are experiencing--that I understand. It still doesn't mean that this winter, and the one last year, haven't been terrible letdowns. I'm beginning to think its time to ignore the forums and ignore the forecasters for a little while and just let the winter happen--if that ever does....

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far se wi is prone to taking it up the fanny in these early season snows. disappointing for a snow lover but I wouldn't jump off the hoan bridge yet. A short break is not a bad idea (wish I could do it) to let the emotions settle down while the models maybe settle in to how the last 3rd of the month will play out. I'm getting a good feeling most will like how the rest of the winter plays out once its our turn to gets some winter hits.

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far se wi is prone to taking it up the fanny in these early season snows. disappointing for a snow lover but I wouldn't jump off the hoan bridge yet. A short break is not a bad idea (wish I could do it) to let the emotions settle down while the models maybe settle in to how the last 3rd of the month will play out. I'm getting a good feeling most will like how the rest of the winter plays out once its our turn to gets some winter hits.

Is it a tingle or a burning sensation?

The NE forum is getting kind of ugly. Snow junkies need their fix.

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far se wi is prone to taking it up the fanny in these early season snows. disappointing for a snow lover but I wouldn't jump off the hoan bridge yet. A short break is not a bad idea (wish I could do it) to let the emotions settle down while the models maybe settle in to how the last 3rd of the month will play out. I'm getting a good feeling most will like how the rest of the winter plays out once its our turn to gets some winter hits.

This is the classic first system we usually miss out on. It's just later then usual this year.

One a brighter note the lake temperature only goes down from here.

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Is it a tingle or a burning sensation?

The NE forum is getting kind of ugly. Snow junkies need their fix.

lol.. 6 pack of carne al pastor tacos and sides last night definitely giving me some uneasy gut and burning sensation from the.....Buttt, I'm getting a good gut feeling and that's normally a good thing for this sub-forum... Gut feeling has nothing to do with the Mets thoughts of here and far away.. or the models.. ect.. Just a strong gut feeling for a solid winter yet forum wide.. obviously some will do better than others in regards to getting a high % or bettering their avg normal snowfall but I doubt their will be many real stinkers forum wide even for the slow starters.

:weenie:

Go Vikings :puke:

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lol.. 6 pack of carne al pastor tacos and sides last night definitely giving me some uneasy gut and burning sensation from the.....Buttt, I'm getting a good gut feeling and that's normally a good thing for this sub-forum... Gut feeling has nothing to do with the Mets thoughts of here and far away.. or the models.. ect.. Just a strong gut feeling for a solid winter yet forum wide.. obviously some will do better than others in regards to getting a high % or bettering their avg normal snowfall but I doubt their will be many real stinkers forum wide even for the slow starters.

:weenie:

Go Vikings :puke:

I've got a feeling that your upset gut may be right. I know that talk of backloaded winter is lol worthy here, but I feel it may be the case this year.

I know you cheesenoggins hate rooting for Minnesota, but the Bears may be in trouble today due to all of their injuries.

EDIT: I just saw the injury comments in the other thread. Sounds like Tim is on the Bears have a fork in their butt bandwagon.

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i have been looking at the latest MJO plots and the american models show it coming out of the COD into Phase 1 which is one of the phases we want to be in. However, the ECMWF models do the same except zip it to Phase 3 by the 23rd which correlate to an incipient torch. The longer range ECMWF has the MJO going into, guess what...Phase 5 which correlates to a disgusting torch over 3/4 of the country and that cooler than normal 1/4 aint us. That is modeled to happen by early January.

The Canadian model (most accurate MJO model) shows the thing in the COD and guess what side of the COD it heads toward? The Phases 4 - 6 (torch phases)

While these models are models, it seems like ultimately everything eventually trends warm. Soooo much like last year. However, while this winter, so far, sickenely resembles last winter, I believe, unlike last winter, we have a 2 - 4 week of cold, wintery weather beginning sometime in early to more likely, mid January.

After that period, the rest of winter will off and on with in and out cold and the occasional torch. The further west in the region the better you will do as the bulk of the cold air stays in Canada but will expand southward as it's doing so now.

I wish I could stick a giant heating element in the ocean about 500 miles south of Anchorage. #%@&!! - PDO.

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my parents (and probably Geos) managed close to 20" more than I did last season. As bad as ORD was, the lakefront was even worse.

Yeah you didn't have it good last season, relatively speaking. Even LAF took you to the woodshed. That's the ultimate slap in the face.

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